Look's Like Another Round Of L.A V St Louis is eminent

[fearsomefour]

As a Dodger fan this is the team I least want to face.
Bad matchup. Dodgers have a hard time hitting the Cardinals.

 

[ZigZagRam]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Dodgers swept us. The Cardinals offense has been pretty unreliable this season and I don't see that changing with Kershaw and Greinke going.

 

[Sum1]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Dodgers swept us. The Cardinals offense has been pretty unreliable this season and I don't see that changing with Kershaw and Greinke going.

The Cardinals have hit both Kershaw and Grienke traditionally well. Plus, those 2 aren't going to pitch every game of the series...and the Cardinals pitching staff in it's entirety is better than the Dodgers. Grienke's numbers are not any better that Lance Lynn's either. At best the Dodgers have the pitching edge in one game, and it all reality it is very slight.

 

[ZigZagRam]

The Cardinals have hit both Kershaw and Grienke traditionally well. Plus, those 2 aren't going to pitch every game of the series...and the Cardinals pitching staff in it's entirety is better than the Dodgers. Grienke's numbers are not any better that Lance Lynn's either. At best the Dodgers have the pitching edge in one game, and it all reality it is very slight.

1. Any baseball statistician will tell you that BVP data is largely irrelevant because of sample size, and the team only having a handful of at bats each against these pitchers certainly doesn't mean much. Owning them in the past didn't matter much this year as we only plated 4 (maybe 5) runs against them in their three starts.

2. Kershaw and Greinke could feasibly pitch 4 out of 5 games this season. Dodgers went with Kershaw in Game 4 of the DS last year and have stated that they wouldn't hesitate to do it again.

3. Disagree about the pitching staff as a whole. Dodgers have the edge in the bullpen, and Ryu is a better starter than Lackey (the game 3 matchup) if he's healthy.

4. No, Greinke's numbers are better than Lance Lynn's. Better ERA, better strikeout rate, better walk rate. If you want to get into sabermetrics Greinke has a better FIP, better xFIP, and better WAR. In fact, as good as Lynn was, I'm trying to find a single important pitching metric that Lynn was better at and I can't find one.

5. The Dodgers have the pitching edge in every game unless we somehow see Roberto Hernandez and Shelby Miller face off.

As a Cardinals fan, I'd love to be wrong, but you're overrating us. Throw in a maddeningly inconsistent offense and it could be a short series.

 

[Sum1]

1. Any baseball statistician will tell you that BVP data is largely irrelevant because of sample size, and the team only having a handful of at bats each against these pitchers certainly doesn't mean much. Owning them in the past didn't matter much this year as we only plated 4 (maybe 5) runs against them in their three starts.

2. Kershaw and Greinke could feasibly pitch 4 out of 5 games this season. Dodgers went with Kershaw in Game 4 of the DS last year and have stated that they wouldn't hesitate to do it again.

3. Disagree about the pitching staff as a whole. Dodgers have the edge in the bullpen, and Ryu is a better starter than Lackey (the game 3 matchup) if he's healthy.

4. No, Greinke's numbers are better than Lance Lynn's. Better ERA, better strikeout rate, better walk rate. If you want to get into sabermetrics Greinke has a better FIP, better xFIP, and better WAR. In fact, as good as Lynn was, I'm trying to find a single important pitching metric that Lynn was better at and I can't find one.

5. The Dodgers have the pitching edge in every game unless we somehow see Roberto Hernandez and Shelby Miller face off.

As a Cardinals fan, I'd love to be wrong, but you're overrating us. Throw in a maddeningly inconsistent offense and it could be a short series.

Grienke's ERA is 2.71 while Lynn's is 2.74. That's essentially the same. Their difference in WHIP, Grienke 1.15 vs Lynn 1.26, again, so marginally different that it doesn't show an edge in one game at all. Lynn also boasts a better BAA than Greinke, but again, extremely marginal and doesn't give any reason to believe one is measurably better than they other this season.

How many games has Ryu pitched lately? There is a lot to be said for Lackey's postseason experience also.

When it comes to the bullpen I really don't see how you can say the Dodgers have the edge there outside of perhaps the closer role. I'm taking the 8th inning setup man the Cards have in Neshek over Brian Wilson this season. The Dodgers have an intriguing rookie that undoubtedly has been excellent but has less than 30 innings this season in the bigs. If Rosenthal is on he's electric...but if Trevor Isringhausen shows up that'll be worrisome. The Dodgers Jansen has been lights out lately, he does scare me right now.

I could see Kershaw going in game 4 if the Dodgers are facing elimination...I wouldn't anticipate Greinke going in game 5 though.

 

[ZigZagRam]

You're talking to a baseball stats geek. All of those stats you're referencing have been proven to be inaccurate representations of a players true skill. ERA means nothing these days. It's dated. If you want the stat that has been proven to be the most predictive and a better measure of a pitcher's true ability, you need to look at xFIP which takes out many variables including defensive skill behind the pitcher, BABIP, park effects, etc.

Greinke's xFIP was 2.72 for the past season, while Lynn's was 3.81.

I don't know how much stock you can put in John Lackey's postseason abilities at age 35, though he was pretty strong outside of a poor DS start last year.

As far as the bullpens go, they're pretty much even xFIP wise as a whole, but I'm giving the Dodgers the edge because of Kenley. Rosenthal has been shaky all season long and Neshek looked shaky late in the season. C-Mart's control sucks and I never feel comfortable with him in there.

As far as Greinke not starting game 5. If they're willing to throw Kershaw out there in Game 4 I'm not sure why you think they'd be reluctant to send their clear #2 out there in a series-deciding Game 5.

Again, I really hope I'm wrong, but I just see very few reasons to think that I will be outside of the hope of Cardinals playoff magic happening again.

 

[Cullen Bryant]

Also, Greinke is much better at home than on the road, has been for years. This year he was 10-2 at home and 7-6 on the road. If he pitches twice in this series both games would be at home.

 

[Sum1]

You're talking to a baseball stats geek. All of those stats you're referencing have been proven to be inaccurate representations of a players true skill. ERA means nothing these days. It's dated. If you want the stat that has been proven to be the most predictive and a better measure of a pitcher's true ability, you need to look at xFIP which takes out many variables including defensive skill behind the pitcher, BABIP, park effects, etc.

Greinke's xFIP was 2.72 for the past season, while Lynn's was 3.81.

I don't know how much stock you can put in John Lackey's postseason abilities at age 35, though he was pretty strong outside of a poor DS start last year.

As far as the bullpens go, they're pretty much even xFIP wise as a whole, but I'm giving the Dodgers the edge because of Kenley. Rosenthal has been shaky all season long and Neshek looked shaky late in the season. C-Mart's control sucks and I never feel comfortable with him in there.

As far as Greinke not starting game 5. If they're willing to throw Kershaw out there in Game 4 I'm not sure why you think they'd be reluctant to send their clear #2 out there in a series-deciding Game 5.

Again, I really hope I'm wrong, but I just see very few reasons to think that I will be outside of the hope of Cardinals playoff magic happening again.

That's great if we were trying to determine who should win the Cy Young. But those players behind the pitcher are going to be playing, so in this case it is still extremely relevant as we are debating an edge in postseason baseball.

 

[ZigZagRam]

That's great if we were trying to determine who should win the Cy Young. But those players behind the pitcher are going to be playing, so in this case it is still extremely relevant as we are debating an edge in postseason baseball.

You're kidding yourself if you think the disparity in defense for a single game is going to matter as much as pitcher skill.

 

[Sum1]

You're kidding yourself if you think the disparity in defense for a single game is going to matter as much as pitcher skill.

How could you not consider into the equation? If the defense behind the pitcher doesn't have any effect they may as well play wiffle ball.

 

[ZigZagRam]

How could you not consider into the equation? If the defense behind the pitcher doesn't have any effect they may as well play wiffle ball.

Defense plays a small role, but the starting pitcher's ability is far, far more important. Think about how many errors occur in a game or balls that poor fielders don't get to. Usually what, 2 plays per team per game? That may be generous. It's far less than the number of hits, walks, etc.

 

[Sum1]

Defense plays a small role, but the starting pitcher's ability is far, far more important. Think about how many errors occur in a game or balls that poor fielders don't get to. Usually what, 2 plays per team per game? That may be generous. It's far less than the number of hits, walks, etc.

Solid defense goes much further than errors though.

Anyway...back to the point is that the the difference between the two clubs is very slim. I stand by my statement that the Cardinals pitching staff in it's entirety has the edge, but I'm also not stating it is significant. The Dodgers have a clear offensive edge. You also aid yourself Kershaw is beatable based on his history with the Cardinals. I'd say the same could ring true with Greinke.

Alas, in a 5 game series all it takes is one team to put everything together all at once...It'll be a fun one that has potential to come down to the very last pitch in the 5th game.

 

[ZigZagRam]

Kershaw's beatable, but I don't think we'll do it. This offense has been brutal at times this season and even if we can string together a few runs, I don't trust our pitching staff to shut down the Dodgers offense.

But, we've had worse teams win the World Series.

As Joaquin Andujar always said, "Youneverknow."

 

[rdlkgliders]

I am Glad to see this thread get going. I hope Kershaw pitches well tomorrow and we have a great game GL to my friends and Card fans from the Lou.

 

[Ram Quixote]

As a Cardinal fan, the edges that I see in my teams favor are this. Clayton Kershaw is without a doubt the best regular season pitcher in baseball. But his postseason track record isn't nearly as dominant. Michael Wacha, a rookie, beat Kershaw twice last postseason. And from there, the Dodgers pitching staff out side of Kershaw has only accounted for about a .500 record.

I like the totality of the Cardinals pitching staff over the Dodgers, and pitching is key in the playoffs. But, both teams are very talented and even a big edge can prove worthless when a team gets things going at the right time. And as ZigZag said, the Pirates are hot on the Cards tail. It'll be a fun couple series here to round out the season.

I'm going to respond to this.
http://dodgers.mlblogs.com/2014/09/30/the-top-myths-about-the-2014-dodgers/#more-2085859

The Dodgers are Clayton Kershaw and nothing else.

Sometimes this angle is generously expanded to include a player here and there like Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu (if healthy, of course), Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp or Adrian Gonzalez. But with Kershaw rightfully grabbing the most attention this year, it has become trendy to characterize the Dodgers as ordinary without him. The latest hip quip: The Dodgers were 23-4 (.851) when Kershaw started this year, “only” 71-64 (.526) when he didn’t.

So, about that:

• A .526 winning percentage is the equivalent of 85 wins in a 162-game season. In other words, that’s not ordinary — that’s good. The two National League wild-card teams each won 88 games. That means that even if you subtract the team’s best player, the Dodgers still played well enough to be in the NL playoff race to the final weekend. Ten other MLB teams played better than .526 ball this year — far fewer would have done so without their top guy.
• If you take away any team’s best pitcher, they’re not exactly going to be dominant. The St. Louis Cardinals are 67-63 (.515) without Adam Wainwright. That’s right: However little the Dodgers are without Kershaw, the Cardinals are even less without Wainwright.
• The Dodgers have the No. 1 offense in the Major Leagues. Read more about it at this link. It’s an offense sure to be tested by some of the best pitching baseball has to offer, but that’s true of the other nine playoff teams as well. Plus, the Dodgers have the benefit of not having to face Kershaw in a playoff game.
• Oh, and in case you’re going with “Clayton Kershaw is not a playoff pitcher,” remember this.

 

[fearsomefour]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Dodgers swept us. The Cardinals offense has been pretty unreliable this season and I don't see that changing with Kershaw and Greinke going.

Its funny, as a Dodger fan I would not be surprised if the Cardinals swept us....Game 1 is so huge in this series.

 

[fearsomefour]

I'm going to respond to this.
http://dodgers.mlblogs.com/2014/09/30/the-top-myths-about-the-2014-dodgers/#more-2085859

The Dodgers are Clayton Kershaw and nothing else.

Sometimes this angle is generously expanded to include a player here and there like Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu (if healthy, of course), Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp or Adrian Gonzalez. But with Kershaw rightfully grabbing the most attention this year, it has become trendy to characterize the Dodgers as ordinary without him. The latest hip quip: The Dodgers were 23-4 (.851) when Kershaw started this year, “only” 71-64 (.526) when he didn’t.

So, about that:

• A .526 winning percentage is the equivalent of 85 wins in a 162-game season. In other words, that’s not ordinary — that’s good. The two National League wild-card teams each won 88 games. That means that even if you subtract the team’s best player, the Dodgers still played well enough to be in the NL playoff race to the final weekend. Ten other MLB teams played better than .526 ball this year — far fewer would have done so without their top guy.
• If you take away any team’s best pitcher, they’re not exactly going to be dominant. The St. Louis Cardinals are 67-63 (.515) without Adam Wainwright. That’s right: However little the Dodgers are without Kershaw, the Cardinals are even less without Wainwright.
• The Dodgers have the No. 1 offense in the Major Leagues. Read more about it at this link. It’s an offense sure to be tested by some of the best pitching baseball has to offer, but that’s true of the other nine playoff teams as well. Plus, the Dodgers have the benefit of not having to face Kershaw in a playoff game.
• Oh, and in case you’re going with “Clayton Kershaw is not a playoff pitcher,” remember this.

Where the Dodgers are at a disadvantage is the bullpen. Kershaw and Greinke are as good a 1-2 as there is. That three spot is shaky.....I guess have to go Haren based on the last month or so. The Dodgers pen is scary at times for a Dodger fan.

 

[RamFan503]

Everything aside, I really wish this wasn't the first match-up. I really think the two best teams in the NL are the Cards and Dodgers. Gonna be a tough series. Go BLUE!

 

[Ram Quixote]

Where the Dodgers are at a disadvantage is the bullpen. Kershaw and Greinke are as good a 1-2 as there is. That three spot is shaky.....I guess have to go Haren based on the last month or so. The Dodgers pen is scary at times for a Dodger fan.

They're sending Ryu out for Game 3.

 

[bluecoconuts]

Go Kings!

Oh wait, baseball? I may catch a few games, if nothing else if Dodgers win I get more bragging rights over my girlfriends family.