Bernie: Gurley is a big-risk, big-upside talent
• By Bernie Miklasz
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/colu...cle_76e3e917-87be-55b8-a261-e53c1c4729ee.html
Going into the draft, I expected Rams GM Les Snead and head coach Jeff Fisher to take their vitamins and eat their broccoli by doing the sensible if unexciting thing by drafting an offensive tackle.
Instead, the Rams pulled off a surprise by taking the magnificent Georgia running back Todd Gurley with the 10th overall selection.
Of course there are several reasons to rip or at least seriously question the pick.
1. Gurley is coming off late-November surgery to repair a torn ACL and could miss the early part of the 2015 regular season. He's a real talent, but there's a red-flag aspect to this choice. What if Gurley is out longer than anticipated? What if he doesn't hold up? I guess the snarky thing to say -- as thousands already have -- is that the Rams have drafted a back that Los Angeles fans will love in 2016. But I'm just repeating the joke. I don't endorse it.
2. This is the fifth RB chosen by the Fisher-Snead regime, following Isaiah Pead (50th overall in 2012), Daryl Richardson (No. 252 in 2012), Zac Stacy (No 160 in 2013), and Tre Mason (No. 75 in 2014.) Mason is a nice player with upside, but there isn't a home-run pick in there. So should we trust the regime's ability to judge running backs?
3. Presumably the Rams will line up additional run blockers to give Gurley a chance to break off runs instead of getting beaten up and suffering additional injuries. But until they do ... how much punishment can Gurley absorb behind a suspect O-line? Again, I'd have to think the Rams will reinforce their front line.
4. NFL personnel evaluators have shifted their philosophy on taking RBs early in the first round. In the previous five drafts (2010-2014) only two backs came off the board in the first 10 picks. Buffalo chose C.J. Spiller 9th overall in 2010, and Cleveland went for Trent Richardson at No. 3 in 2012. Spiller has been a good player, with speed that can burn defenses. He's averaged 4.9 yards per carry and made an impact as a receiver. (With one Pro Bowl.) Spiller was a fine pick, but he hasn't reached the superstars level. As for Richardson, he's been a bust so far in his days with Cleveland and Indianapolis.
None of this means it's stupid to draft a back so early. You can go back to 2007 with Adrian Peterson going 7th overall. And though he didn't go in the top 10, Marshawn Lynch was the 12th overall choice in '07. Lynch washed out of Buffalo, but has been a hugely important franchise back with Seattle. But the list of early-first backs includes Cedric Benson (4th in 2005), Cadillac Williams (5th in 2005), and Darren McFadden (4th in 2008.) McFadden is a decent back, still going through eight NFL seasons, but he's only had one 1,000-yard rushing season. And there have been some effective role players taken early, including Reggie Bush (2nd overall in '06.) And also a solid back in Ronnie Brown (No. 2 in 2005.)
NFL teams have become increasingly reluctant to pull a RB off the board when picking a back among the first 10 selections. So it's fair to say that Fisher-Snead are going against the trend here. And the risk factor is increased by Gurley's knee health.
5. Fisher also drafted some RB busts in Tennessee including LenDale White, Chris Henry and Chris Brown. But Fisher also hit it big on a couple of backs, and we'll get to that in a moment.
But here's the thing ...
I don't hate this pick. Not at all. I like it, actually. If you watched Gurley work on autumn Saturdays during his career at Georgia you'll know what I mean. I'll say it: I loved watching Gurley run the football. He was tenacious and explosive and everything in between.
Gurley is really, really good. He's big and strong and fast and has an appetite for contact. He can run through tacklers or elude them. Not a bad receiver, either. Gurley is an exciting player with a chance to become the franchise back that Fisher needs to belatedly assemble a power running game in St. Louis. And a power game that also contains a breakaway element.
A healthy Gurley can be a lot of fun to watch during the coming seasons.
I also believe this: if Fisher is the Rams' head coach, he'll continue to go with the offensive style that he prefers, and a top-quality RB is a big part of that equation. We can't pretend that Fisher is something that he's not. He isn't going to change, not after 19+ seasons as a head coach. Too late.
As coach of the Oilers-Titans, Fisher found his go-to guy in Eddie George, the 14th overall choice in 1996. George was everything that Fisher wanted to make his offense go, and George rushed for 10,441 yards and 68 touchdowns in a career that included four Pro Bowl selections and one All-Pro honor.
George was Fisher's lead back for eight seasons, with special toughness and endurance that was tested to the max by a preposterous 403-carry season in 2000.
Fisher also struck gold in the 2008 draft by picking Chris Johnson 24th overall. The lightning-bolt Johnson had six 1,000-yard seasons including his memorable 2,006-yard haul in 2009.
We don't know if Gurley can be Fisher's new George, or Johnson or a hybrid of the two. But after ranking 19th in the NFL in rushing yards over his first three seasons, the coach has been searching for a RB that can carry his offense. And a healthy and durable version of Gurley has the skill set to be the alpha back.
Again, there's no way to avoid the health-durability question, but Fisher went with his gut and put his faith in Gurley. For better or for worse, Fisher remained true to his roots.
As Jon Gruden said Thursday night on ESPN: "Jeff Fisher, when he's been at his best, they've had a good defense, and they've been able to run the football. Think about the identity of a Jeff Fisher football team. Run the football, play good defense. That will help (new QB) Nick Foles, that will help this offensive line if they can have some success running the football. I love this pick. You can feature (Gurley) every Sunday."
I also like the pick because it's got some sizzle. It wasn't the safest thing to do from a practical standpoint. Fisher could have gone with a lower-risk RB in Wisconson's Melvin Gordon. But obviously the Rams believe that Gurley can be transcendent, so they went all-in on him.
And they also ignored the danger of relying on another surgically repaired knee. Fisher's rebuild in STL was slowed and made more challenging by QB Sam Bradford's two knee injuries, and now Fisher used a Top 10 pick on a back that's coming off ACL surgery.
But in Thursday's column I wrote that I hoped the Rams would do something to help their offense get into the end zone more frequently. And there are a lot of ways to do that, including a powerhouse RB.
Fisher certainly wasn't bashful about going for it. All you can do is hope that Gurley will be sound, and stay sound, and be able to withstand a feature-back workload. If Gurley can endure, he's a true playmaker. And we haven't seen many difference-makers on the Rams offense.
This was a surprise pick that, upon further review, wasn't so stunning after all. This was the third SEC running back chosen by Snead-Fisher in their four drafts in St. Louis.
(This just in: Las Vegas has installed the Rams as the favorite to to win the SEC East in 2015. One other lame joke: the Rams evidently traded Brian Schottenheimer to Georgia for Gurley.)
This latest choice will blow up on the Rams if Gurley's knee blows out again ... but at least now there's a chance to see some entertainment when the Rams have the football.
Big risk ... big talent.
Big gamble ... big potential payoff.
Boom ... or bust.
If you feel like reading more about Gurley and this pick...
Here are a couple of things for you from my favorite football-analysis web site, Pro Football Focus ...
• Here was the instant reaction Pro Football Focus:
"A running back is gone in the first 10 picks, thus ensuring PFF founder Neil Hornsby has ample opportunity to get on his soap box and bemoan the lack of value in the pick. Gurley is obviously coming off an ACL injury, but the wonders of modern medicine and his incredible physical gifts were too much for a Rams team to pass up giving who they at the running back spot right now. His 2014 sample size was relatively small but enough to produce these nuggets. Gurley led the nation with 3.98 yards after contact per attempt against Power-5 competition and also had the highest elusive rating in that regard. He’s a unique talent and despite only carrying the ball 123 times he still had the sixth highest rushing grade of all draft eligible backs."
• And here is Matt Classen's pre-draft assessment of Gurley:
"Gurley is the top back on many people’s draft boards, and understandably so. He is a powerful and explosive runner who fights to finish runs and can create his own yardage. He forced an astounding 37 missed tackles on 117 rushes against Power 5 teams, and never less than six in any of those games. His 3.9 average yards after contact ranked second in the draft class.
"His quickness and top speed are a rare combination with his size and are what makes him unique from other players in the draft. Gurley is powerful enough to run over and through multiple defenders yet can still break away from early anyone on the defense. He had at least a 40-yard run in each of his first four games last season.
"Gurley still has the highest upside of any of the running backs, but the injuries coupled with his physicality are a concern. The recovery road following ACL injuries has come a long way over the years, but nothing is for sure. Will the knee be an issue going forward? Odds are that it probably won’t be, but it should still be at least a small concern and part of the equation when drafting Gurley.
"Signature Stat: On average, Gurley forced a missed tackle once every 3.3 rush attempts, the best rate in the nation."
Thanks for reading ... and please pardon my typos.
- Bernie
