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http://espn.go.com/nfl/insider/stor...ephia-eagles-need-re-sign-qb-sam-bradford-nfl
The recent upheaval in the Philadelphia Eagles' front office and on the coaching staff means it's time for the organization to decide whom they want to keep and whom they want to let go. The toughest of these decisions for Howie Roseman & Co. will be on quarterback Sam Bradford.
Given the Eagles' reported interest in reacquiring Nick Foles, it seems that the pendulum is swinging away from retaining Bradford.
That is somewhat understandable given Bradford's salary demands, but there is a strong case to be made that the Eagles should go all-out to keep Bradford, even at a high price.
Bradford is an elite vertical passer
Cam Newton and Russell Wilson both made strong MVP cases during the second half of the 2015 season, but they could not keep up with Bradford in terms of yards per attempt (YPA) on vertical passes (throws of 11 or more yards downfield). In fact, no one in the league matched Bradford's 15.1 vertical YPA pace from Weeks 9 through 17.
That Bradford did this with a less-than-stellar pass-catching corps is notable, but it isn't an anomaly. In the 2013 season, Bradford ranked sixth in the league in vertical YPA (12.5) despite throwing to a mediocre receiving corps consisting of Tavon Austin, Austin Pettis, Chris Givens, Brian Quick, Jared Cook and Lance Kendricks. He is one of a small handful of quarterbacks capable of getting excellent downfield production out of subpar receiving.
He has superb decision-making skills
Bradford has almost always fared well in my bad decision rate (BDR) metric that gauges how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team.
The league average in BDR is usually about 1.5 percent. The best decision-makers will post a BDR of less than 1.0 percent, while the worst decision-makers will have a 2.0 percent or higher rate.
Bradford posted a 0.8 percent BDR in 2015, a mark that followed his 0.7 percent BDR in the 2013 season (the last one he played before joining the Eagles). This shows his risk-management skills are on par with just about any passer in the league.
The durability concerns are overblown
Outside of the dollar value of his contract, the biggest concern in signing Bradford has to be durability.
These fears stem from Bradford suffering ACL injuries that caused him to miss the second half of the 2013 season and all of 2014, but let's take a look at this from another prism.
According to ESPN Stats & Information, last season Bradford played in 935 offensive snaps. He also played in 3,115 offensive snaps from the 2010 to 2013 seasons. Add them together, and it means that Bradford played in 4,050 snaps in those five seasons.
From the 2010 to 2013 seasons, Aaron Rodgers played in 3,299 offensive snaps. In the 2015 season, Rodgers was on the field for 1,044 snaps. Put those totals together, and it equals 4,343 snaps. Divide the 293-snap difference between Rodgers and Bradford by five (the number of seasons), and it equates to a 58.6 snap-per-season variance between these two.
Missing a full 16-game schedule, as Bradford did in 2014, is not something that should be overlooked, but take that season out of the equation, and Bradford has been on the field for nearly as many snaps as Rodgers since 2010.
bring back Foles is that Foles displayed superb decision-making skills during his stellar 2013 season.
Foles posted a league best 0.3 percent BDR that season with the Eagles, and it was a major reason he had only two interceptions in his 13 games under center. But Foles followed it up by posting a 2.4 percent BDR in 2014, which tied for the fourth-worst in the league.
Things didn't get any better for Foles in 2015, now playing for the Rams, as he ranked last in the league in Total QBR (30.0) while throwing to many of the same receivers Bradford played with back in 2013, when he posted top-notch vertical YPA numbers with the Rams.
Foles is talented enough for a team to take a chance on helping him get these inconsistencies corrected, but this type of up-and-down track record indicates he is far too risky for a team to rely on him as its No. 1 quarterback.
Bottom line
Famed NFL general manager Ernie Accorsi once said that there is no price too high to pay for a franchise quarterback.
There is no guarantee that Bradford will develop into one, but combine the above facts with his Heisman Trophy, status as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 NFL draft and offensive rookie of the year award, and it means Bradford most certainly has a franchise-quarterback ceiling. Barring a move that leads to Philadelphia getting another QB prospect of this caliber, the Eagles should do whatever it takes to keep Bradford on their roster.
The recent upheaval in the Philadelphia Eagles' front office and on the coaching staff means it's time for the organization to decide whom they want to keep and whom they want to let go. The toughest of these decisions for Howie Roseman & Co. will be on quarterback Sam Bradford.
Given the Eagles' reported interest in reacquiring Nick Foles, it seems that the pendulum is swinging away from retaining Bradford.
That is somewhat understandable given Bradford's salary demands, but there is a strong case to be made that the Eagles should go all-out to keep Bradford, even at a high price.
Bradford is an elite vertical passer
Cam Newton and Russell Wilson both made strong MVP cases during the second half of the 2015 season, but they could not keep up with Bradford in terms of yards per attempt (YPA) on vertical passes (throws of 11 or more yards downfield). In fact, no one in the league matched Bradford's 15.1 vertical YPA pace from Weeks 9 through 17.
That Bradford did this with a less-than-stellar pass-catching corps is notable, but it isn't an anomaly. In the 2013 season, Bradford ranked sixth in the league in vertical YPA (12.5) despite throwing to a mediocre receiving corps consisting of Tavon Austin, Austin Pettis, Chris Givens, Brian Quick, Jared Cook and Lance Kendricks. He is one of a small handful of quarterbacks capable of getting excellent downfield production out of subpar receiving.
He has superb decision-making skills
Bradford has almost always fared well in my bad decision rate (BDR) metric that gauges how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team.
The league average in BDR is usually about 1.5 percent. The best decision-makers will post a BDR of less than 1.0 percent, while the worst decision-makers will have a 2.0 percent or higher rate.
Bradford posted a 0.8 percent BDR in 2015, a mark that followed his 0.7 percent BDR in the 2013 season (the last one he played before joining the Eagles). This shows his risk-management skills are on par with just about any passer in the league.
The durability concerns are overblown
Outside of the dollar value of his contract, the biggest concern in signing Bradford has to be durability.
These fears stem from Bradford suffering ACL injuries that caused him to miss the second half of the 2013 season and all of 2014, but let's take a look at this from another prism.
According to ESPN Stats & Information, last season Bradford played in 935 offensive snaps. He also played in 3,115 offensive snaps from the 2010 to 2013 seasons. Add them together, and it means that Bradford played in 4,050 snaps in those five seasons.
From the 2010 to 2013 seasons, Aaron Rodgers played in 3,299 offensive snaps. In the 2015 season, Rodgers was on the field for 1,044 snaps. Put those totals together, and it equals 4,343 snaps. Divide the 293-snap difference between Rodgers and Bradford by five (the number of seasons), and it equates to a 58.6 snap-per-season variance between these two.
Missing a full 16-game schedule, as Bradford did in 2014, is not something that should be overlooked, but take that season out of the equation, and Bradford has been on the field for nearly as many snaps as Rodgers since 2010.
bring back Foles is that Foles displayed superb decision-making skills during his stellar 2013 season.
Foles posted a league best 0.3 percent BDR that season with the Eagles, and it was a major reason he had only two interceptions in his 13 games under center. But Foles followed it up by posting a 2.4 percent BDR in 2014, which tied for the fourth-worst in the league.
Things didn't get any better for Foles in 2015, now playing for the Rams, as he ranked last in the league in Total QBR (30.0) while throwing to many of the same receivers Bradford played with back in 2013, when he posted top-notch vertical YPA numbers with the Rams.
Foles is talented enough for a team to take a chance on helping him get these inconsistencies corrected, but this type of up-and-down track record indicates he is far too risky for a team to rely on him as its No. 1 quarterback.
Bottom line
Famed NFL general manager Ernie Accorsi once said that there is no price too high to pay for a franchise quarterback.
There is no guarantee that Bradford will develop into one, but combine the above facts with his Heisman Trophy, status as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 NFL draft and offensive rookie of the year award, and it means Bradford most certainly has a franchise-quarterback ceiling. Barring a move that leads to Philadelphia getting another QB prospect of this caliber, the Eagles should do whatever it takes to keep Bradford on their roster.
