Yeah this is because everything nowadays is about what you've done lately. All the guys who were overhyped this time last year, well most of them, came up short. Only one of them had a great season, and that was Mendoza. But I liked him almost as much in our conversations last year around this time as I do now. He just played himself out of our range.
I think it's important to look at all the games you can find on these guys. The big college types it's really easy to find tape. Like for example with Nussmeier or Klubnik, because of the big colleges involved, you can find full game cutups ready to go with their snaps and get a great feel for them. Whereas a guy like Payton you need to dig up full games of NDSU with him in them and fast forward, and even then the only thing they do is run the fuckin ball.
Also how often do you hear evaluators talk about the team around them, the situation, etc. It's really rare to hear that stuff because usually it's all hyperbole where they want to blow a game or highlight or short string of game results into a bigger deal than they should be.
And even knowing this I still get surprised by it. Last year I watched every game of every QB that I could find. And I thought Dart stood out like crazy because his protections weren't great, the team around him wasn't great, but there he was more often than not dealing with pressure and showing excellent pocket feel for pressure and decision making under duress. Didn't amount to a whole lot on the scoreboard because his team wasn't all that. But he himself, in the QB role, had some excellent tape I thought. NFL experts were like oh hey he's a midround QB, which I simply did not get. It made no sense because he had size, he had the arm, the raw tools were there on top of the feel and compete I love in a QB.
This year there's no Dart. Closest thing to my eye is Klubnik, who has multiple years of starting and garnering experience in snaps. His negatives were his feet/mechanics, also some real dumb decisions with the ball. But on the counter side of that I cannot recall a QB who had more elusive moves where he had to escape the rush than Klubnik in the '25 season. So to large extent in projecting him you have a player who was goddamn excellent in a dirty pocket precisely like Dart was. But unlike Dart he's smallish, he doesn't have Dart's size so there's no way he's going to be a riser. He's a round 3 QB that fits the Rams though because he doesn't have high end talent around him, he didn't have great protections, but damn near every game he distributed the ball and fought hard.
I know @OldSchool isn't a big fan of him and he's a Clemson fan. But the key for the Rams this year is bringing in a future QB2 type who might have some starting level ability. It's not a great class. And I think I'd rather see them take Klubnik than a dude like Allar who I think did less with more, even though Allar has legit starting level tools across the board.
