Sorsby

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WestCoastRam said:
So my question is: why did he not come out for the draft then?

All the reporting out there is that he wanted to come out, hit a 4 game skid and then teams were giving him 3rd round grades.

Let's say for argument's sake that that reporting is true: there's still QB inflation that might get him to round 2 in this supplemental just on talent alone. Take into account that next years draft is loaded with talent (and a good portion of that should be at QB) and that his off field issues ensure that one more mess up gets him banned for life - that has to account for some sort of downgrade.

I suspect a day 3 pick is where he goes. 5th round but I could see a team making a swing for him with in the 4th round given need, compensatory pick possibilities, etc...

Hard for me to imagine that he wouldn't have come out in a bad QB class if he had a 2nd round grade or higher and the kid's talent alone isn't for certain - sounds like a lesser version of Jaxson Dart.
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I think the NIL money was too good to pass up. Dude was getting offers (allegedly) back in December, way before draft slotting takes place.
 
dieterbrock said:
I think the NIL money was too good to pass up. Dude was getting offers (allegedly) back in December, way before draft slotting takes place.
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Maybe but multiple reports put him as wanting to leave and only looking at NIL money once it became apparent that he would not be a high choice.
 
Memphis Ram said:
I was on the Sorsby bandwagon for a time last year until I saw how he performed against better competition.
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Story as old as time. If kid could have kept up how he looked first 2/3rds of season he'd have come out and been 1/2 round pick.

Kids gotta lotta warts talentwise that I think people aren't taking into account when they think about where he'll go without getting into 1 strike and you're out with him character wise.
 
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WestCoastRam said:
So my question is: why did he not come out for the draft then?

All the reporting out there is that he wanted to come out, hit a 4 game skid and then teams were giving him 3rd round grades.

Let's say for argument's sake that that reporting is true: there's still QB inflation that might get him to round 2 in this supplemental just on talent alone. Take into account that next years draft is loaded with talent (and a good portion of that should be at QB) and that his off field issues ensure that one more mess up gets him banned for life - that has to account for some sort of downgrade.

I suspect a day 3 pick is where he goes. 5th round but I could see a team making a swing for him with in the 4th round given need, compensatory pick possibilities, etc...

Hard for me to imagine that he wouldn't have come out in a bad QB class if he had a 2nd round grade or higher and the kid's talent alone isn't for certain - sounds like a lesser version of Jaxson Dart.
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One other thing I think is relevant here WC, and we also have to keep in mind, is a supplemental Draft I think RAISES that player's Draft stock, by a round (IMO), maybe 2.

In a closed bidding process teams will always bid higher than they otherwise would have in a regular Draft. For teams that WANT the player in the supplemental, its less about grading and becomes way more about strategy. Let me explain.

Brock Purdy went in the 7th Round. Had he been in supplemental Draft a potential selecting team (the 49ers) may say "we have the LAST pick of the 7th Round, if we dont want to get outbid by a lesser team we have to bid a 6th Round."

Or, for example, the Rams didnt necessarily GRADE Puka Nacua as a "5th Round talent," they looked at the entire Draft board, used what Intel they could uncover, and determined (correctly) THEY COULD GET Puka Nacua in the 5th Round of the Draft. Had Nacua been in the Supplemental Draft, and having teams have more time to scout him the Rams may very well have bid a 3rd Rounder on Nacua, especially in a "blind" bidding process. Even if they HAD intel that Nacua would go in the 5th that would most likely cause them to bid a 4th to get ahead of the lesser teams.

Which is also why I pegged it at 15% Sorsby could go in the 1st. NOT because I, or teams necessarily think he's a 1st Round talent. But if you're a Playoff team, picking in the 20's, and you want to trump the Arizonas and New York Jets of the world, and you think they are bidding a 2nd, you would HAVE TO bid a 1st, in a CLOSED BIDDING process, to get your guy.

I don't know for sure, obviously, but I could easily see some wild card, "good" team, WITH a Franchise Quarterback already in hand, making a STRATEGIC move (think Rams: Simpson) at grabbing a possible FQ of the future.

Could be Philly (tiring of Hurts?)
Detroit (Goff successor)
San Francisco (move from Purdy)
Seattle (move from Darnold)
Baltimore (tiring of Lamar?)

Who knows? But it's the closed bidding process that drives up the draft stock of players, just by its nature.
 
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Coliseum Ram said:
One other thing I think is relevant here WC, and we also have to keep in mind, is a supplemental Draft I think RAISES that player's Draft stock, by a round (IMO), maybe 2.

In a closed bidding process teams will always bid higher than they otherwise would have in a regular Draft. For teams that WANT the player in the supplemental, its less about grading and becomes way more about strategy. Let me explain.

Brock Purdy went in the 7th Round. Had he been in supplemental Draft a potential selecting team (the 49ers) may say "we have the LAST pick of the 7th Round, if we dont want to get outbid by a lesser team we have to bid a 6th Round."

Or, for example, the Rams didnt necessarily GRADE Puka Nacua as a "5th Round talent," they looked at the entire Draft board, used what Intel they could uncover, and determined (correctly) THEY COULD GET Puka Nacua in the 5th Round of the Draft. Had Nacua been in the Supplemental Draft, and having teams have more time to scout him the Rams may very well have bid a 3rd Rounder on Nacua, especially in a "blind" bidding process. Even if they HAD intel that Nacua would go in the 5th that would most likely cause them to bid a 4th to get ahead of the lesser teams.

Which is also why I pegged it at 15% Sorsby could go in the 1st. NOT because I, or teams necessarily think he's a 1st Round talent. But if you're a Playoff team, picking in the 20's, and you want to trump the Arizonas and New York Jets of the world, and you think they are bidding a 2nd, you would HAVE TO bid a 1st, in a CLOSED BIDDING process, to get your guy.

I don't know for sure, obviously, but I could easily see some wild card, "good" team, WITH a Franchise Quarterback already in hand, making a STRATEGIC move (think Rams: Simpson) at grabbing a possible FQ of the future.

Could be Philly (tiring of Hurts?)
Detroit (Goff successor)
San Francisco (move from Purdy)
Seattle (move from Darnold)
Baltimore (tiring of Lamar?)

Who knows? But it's the closed bidding process that drives up the draft stock of players, just by its nature.
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Yeah, I think your over indexing this when you take into consideration the quality of prospect and the reasons he's available in the supplemental draft in the first place.

But I dig you at least giving up some percentages. Call me 3% chance he goes in 1st round.
 
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Coliseum Ram said:
Could be Philly (tiring of Hurts?)
Detroit (Goff successor)
San Francisco (move from Purdy)
Seattle (move from Darnold)
Baltimore (tiring of Lamar?)
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I could see Philly or Detroit viewing things that way. SF, Seattle and Baltimore not so much. Possible needy teams? Arizona? Carolina? Minnesota? Indy? Cleveland? NY Jets?
 
WestCoastRam said:
Yeah, I think your over indexing this when you take into consideration the quality of prospect and the reasons he's available in the supplemental draft in the first place.

But I dig you at least giving up some percentages. Call me 3% chance he goes in 1st round.
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Oh, I'm low on 1st Round as well (15%). The REAL question is, what percentage to you put on 2nd Round? I would put it at 75%. And 3rd Round at 10%.
 
Round 4 would be crazy given the need of some of these teams. Would mean NFL teams don't like what he's about (off the field) most likely.

But also imagine being one of those teams and passing on the dude, and then watching him kill it a couple years down the road. So I'll be surprised if he makes round 4. Thinking round 2 for him.
 
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WestCoastRam said:

View: https://x.com/PatMcAfeeShow/status/2068030788889649642?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2068030788889649642%7Ctwgr%5E604338746391877c1783a60338a6eb59c736f729%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fbleacherreport.com%2Farticles%2F25443023-latest-rumors-brendan-sorsbys-landing-spot-nfl-supplemental-draft-and-potential-free-agency


Maybe this was already posted here. Def takes an axe to my priors. I guess I'll say likely 3rd round. I'll push my 2nd round pick percentage to 15%.
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Yeah, McShay said 2nd very recently as well (I posted) Todd is God when it comes to intel, as we found out with Ty.
 
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den-the-coach said:
Atlanta Falcons 3rd or 4th round IMO. Jets and Browns will await 2027, but if Kevin Stefanski likes Sorsby with an injury prone Penix and the little engine that can't in Tua Tagovailoa I feel the Falcons are the team that grabs him.
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I'm guessing 4th Round by one of the NFC South teams (Atlanta, Tampa Bay or Carolina).
 
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Coliseum Ram said:
... Todd is God when it comes to intel ...
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If you refuse to take my advice, perhaps you will listen to some men that are far more wise than me.

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Coliseum Ram said:
One other thing I think is relevant here WC, and we also have to keep in mind, is a supplemental Draft I think RAISES that player's Draft stock, by a round (IMO), maybe 2.

In a closed bidding process teams will always bid higher than they otherwise would have in a regular Draft. For teams that WANT the player in the supplemental, its less about grading and becomes way more about strategy. Let me explain.

Brock Purdy went in the 7th Round. Had he been in supplemental Draft a potential selecting team (the 49ers) may say "we have the LAST pick of the 7th Round, if we dont want to get outbid by a lesser team we have to bid a 6th Round."

Or, for example, the Rams didnt necessarily GRADE Puka Nacua as a "5th Round talent," they looked at the entire Draft board, used what Intel they could uncover, and determined (correctly) THEY COULD GET Puka Nacua in the 5th Round of the Draft. Had Nacua been in the Supplemental Draft, and having teams have more time to scout him the Rams may very well have bid a 3rd Rounder on Nacua, especially in a "blind" bidding process. Even if they HAD intel that Nacua would go in the 5th that would most likely cause them to bid a 4th to get ahead of the lesser teams.

Which is also why I pegged it at 15% Sorsby could go in the 1st. NOT because I, or teams necessarily think he's a 1st Round talent. But if you're a Playoff team, picking in the 20's, and you want to trump the Arizonas and New York Jets of the world, and you think they are bidding a 2nd, you would HAVE TO bid a 1st, in a CLOSED BIDDING process, to get your guy.

I don't know for sure, obviously, but I could easily see some wild card, "good" team, WITH a Franchise Quarterback already in hand, making a STRATEGIC move (think Rams: Simpson) at grabbing a possible FQ of the future.

Could be Philly (tiring of Hurts?)
Detroit (Goff successor)
San Francisco (move from Purdy)
Seattle (move from Darnold)
Baltimore (tiring of Lamar?)

Who knows? But it's the closed bidding process that drives up the draft stock of players, just by its nature.
Click to expand...
By my recollection, you have that backwards. If I recall, most supplemental draft prospects go a round or two later than would be projected in the regular draft.

Nothing says all supplemental drafts are the same but as with most extenuating circumstances that put a player in this situation, those are generally considered red flags which also drop the player.

Maybe your guy is right again. Maybe he has some inside info from a couple really needy teams. Dunno. But it sure seems it would be bucking the odds.
 
WestCoastRam said:
Maybe but multiple reports put him as wanting to leave and only looking at NIL money once it became apparent that he would not be a high choice.
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He wouldnt have known that he wouldnt be a high choice in December, draft charts change immeasurably after all the post season concludes
 
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