A 574-page shot across the NFC West bow
July, 25, 2012
By Mike Sando
http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/60546/a-574-page-shot-across-the-nfc-west-bow
St. Louis Rams
The point: Quarterback Sam Bradford wasn't all that much worse last season than he was as a rookie.
Bradford's individual passing stats were worse, but Rams fans worried about their team's franchise quarterback should find some consolation in Football Outsiders' analysis.
Basically, the Rams suffered injuries on a level nearly unprecedented over the past decade, all while facing a schedule that was tougher than anticipated.
Football Outsiders uses a metric called "Adjusted Games Lost" to measure injury impact. The 2011 Rams suffered a league-worst 110 AGL, which the almanac equates to "losing seven key players for the year in training camp." Only the 2009 Buffalo Bills (122.8 AGL) fared worse since 2002.
Meanwhile, the Rams became the first team since at least 1991 to go from playing the NFL's easiest schedule one season (2010, when the Rams were 7-9) to playing the hardest.
"On average," the almanac reads, "the 10 teams since 1991 with the biggest year-to-year rise in strength of schedule had 4.1 fewer wins."
The Rams declined by five victories from 7-9 to 2-14.
None of this means Bradford will lead the Rams to prominence. The evidence does suggest, though, that the Rams faced unusually difficult obstacles last season.
"Everything points to them being in process," Schatz said.
The upcoming season should be one of discovery, in other words. Absent some of those unusually difficult obstacles, the Rams will have an easier time evaluating their personnel. They'll find out more about Bradford, tackle Jason Smith, tight end Lance Kendricks and other potentially key players. They'll learn about their wide receivers and outside linebackers.
"In the end, though, the team's ultimate fate will lie in the hands of [coach Jeff] Fisher's first acquisition in St. Louis, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer," the almanac predicts.
That is a subject for another day.
