Running Backs: Pay them or replace them?

[PARAM]

CBS article indirectly showing Kyren's real value

If you take a randomly selected Day 2 running back from our sample, that player had a 42.5% chance of reaching at least half of Robinson's production over the same three-season window, and a 45% chance of reaching half of Gibbs'. Get to 70% of their production, though, and those probabilities fall to 10% for Robinson and 20% for Gibbs. At 80%, we're talking about 2.5% for Robinson -- essentially one in 40 -- and 10% for Gibbs. Not one Day 2 back matched either player's total production.

What I find interesting is Kyren didn't play much in year 1, so yeah, he's not Gibbs or Bijan. But from year 2 to 4, his numbers were close to Bijan's (77%) and Gibb's (87%) first 3 years. So he sat year 1 and though there were fans who thought he fumbled too much and could/should be traded, clearly the extension he received was the proper move. Just as Gurley is the cautionary tale due to his injuries, Kyren is the evidence you can find a good one on day 2 or 3 and he can earn a 2nd contract that isn't an overpayment.

Kyren got extended prior to last year and his production not only continued but got better. And there's no reason to believe it'll trail off unless Corum gets a lot more touches (which is totally fine; probably better since it might extend KW's career). Over the last 3 years there are 2 running backs to gain at least 1100 yards and score at least 10 TDs on the ground. Derrick Henry and Kyren Williams (Gibbs also has double digit rushing TDs over that span but not the 1100 yards).

**Note: Yesterday on FTF, someone suggested Atlanta ought to trade Bijan for a ton of picks because without a QB, they aren't going anywhere. It was shot down by the other two on the show (rightfully).

 

[Memphis Ram]

BOTH

Kyren is a very good RB. But some credit for his success has to go to McVay and his offenses, too.

No one compares to Gurley, but I could see the argument where RBs are easily replaced.

Barring injury I've seen strong showings from Corum, Akers, Michel, Anderson and even Henderson when given the opportunity under McVay. If given the opportunity, it wouldn't surprise me if Hunter could do the same.

All that said, the reason you pay Kyren is not only his talent, but his character, heart, and leadership.

 

[snackdaddy]

Pay them if they're 24 or 25 years old. But not at 28. Because their time is nearing an end. Barkley and McCaffrey are a perfect example of that. They are no longer the explosive backs they were a couple years ago. Of course for every example like that there is one exception like Derrick Henry. Still, I would not give a 28 year old running back a 3 or 4 year contract.

 

[RamDino]

It's pretty sad when the second most important player on the football team earns peanuts compared to some of the others. Look at what Gurley did for 5 years. He was (arguably) the most valuable offensive player in the NFL every year IMO. Then he gets hurt and he's done. Very sad for running backs that their position is so risky. I guess their best hope is to keep producing and getting more lucrative 1-2 year contracts so teams can't get burned too bad. I'm not sure Kyren will be back after this year and certainly won't be back in 2028 but you never know.

 

[Merlin]

Nonsense article. The RB market is set by supply and demand. You can find RBs in every draft and well into them generally speaking. It is the easiest position to fill in that regard, up there with safety.

Kyren's an excellent back. Locking him up for roughly $10M AAV, however, shows his relative value. It is not that teams don't want to ever lock up second term backs. But rather that they don't want to lock them up second term at high value. As long as you stick to the market value, which is what it is for good reason, you're gonna be fine.

Going forward if the Rams have someone emerge at RB like Corum or Connors or whoever else, they aren't handcuffed by Kyren's contract. And I'm not saying either of them are going to emerge, it's just an example that avoiding the overpay is what is important. As it pertains to the Rams that's the quickest way to have them sour on a player and jettison his ass.

 

[Flint]

I’ve heard that Corum looks even better this year, is there any way he stays long term and will we ever see Hunter? We’re going to have to save money somewhere.

 

[HitStick]

Pay them if they're 24 or 25 years old. But not at 28. Because their time is nearing an end. Barkley and McCaffrey are a perfect example of that. They are no longer the explosive backs they were a couple years ago. Of course for every example like that there is one exception like Derrick Henry. Still, I would not give a 28 year old running back a 3 or 4 year contract.

I have to disagree here, Snacks. McCaffrey’s production was maybe overlooked this season, but he finished top 10 (8th) in rushing yards and TDs (9th). He was also only 76 yards away from being the first runningbacks EVER to have a 2nd 1000/1000 (rushing/receiving). He was just used in a complete different way to make up for their shortcomings at the WR position. I imagine with Stribling, Deebo, and Evans, we will see if he’s truly lost a step.

Barkley I suspect was still recovering from his heavy use in 2024. I truly think these two will still be an “x-factor” for their respective teams this season.

You really do have to look at their situations. Both teams were somewhat of a mess in comparison to previous years. I do think Santa Clara is still going to be a mess, especially if Shanny is feeling the effects of that concussion into the regular season, but I do think both rosters are in better shape.

 

[PARAM]

I have to disagree here, Snacks. McCaffrey’s production was maybe overlooked this season, but he finished top 10 (8th) in rushing yards and TDs (9th). He was also only 76 yards away from being the first runningbacks EVER to have a 2nd 1000/1000 (rushing/receiving). He was just used in a complete different way to make up for their shortcomings at the WR position. I imagine with Stribling, Deebo, and Evans, we will see if he’s truly lost a step.

If you look at his touches, last year was the most he ever had in a season (413). After his second highest touch total (403 in 2019), he ended up with 76 touches the following year (missing 13 games). After his third highest touch total (339 in 2023), he ended up with 65 touches the following year (missing 13 games). He isn't getting any younger. If the pattern holds, he won't see much action this year.

 

[LARAMSinFeb.]

I think maybe McVay's takeaway from Gurley is RB-by-committee is the best approach.

 

[Ram65]

I don't see it as a blue and white situation. You have to look at the entire picture. Focusing on the Rams, they are in great shape in the Running Back Room. They are still young and have contract cap hits under control. The Rams have been drafting running backs over the past handful of years, which ensures they have depth and get value. The Williams extension has not taxed the room or team with a high risk factor. They have depth and time on their side.

The structured breakdown below details the Los Angeles Rams running backs' contracts, ages, and cap hits for the 2026 and 2027 NFL seasons based on Spotrac's active contract tracker. [1]

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Rams Running Back Contract Breakdown

Player	Age (2026)	Years Left	2026 Cap Hit	2027 Cap Hit	Contract Status / Notes
Kyren Williams	25	3 years	$11,645,000	$10,000,000	Signed a 3-year, $33M extension running through 2028.
Blake Corum	26	2 years	$1,571,935	$1,600,000 (est.)	Under his 4-year rookie contract running through 2027.
Jarquez Hunter	24	3 years	$1,254,695	$1,350,000 (est.)	Under his 4-year rookie contract running through 2028.
Ronnie Rivers	27	1 year	$1,075,000	RFA / UFA	Under a short-term active deal hitting free agency post-2026.

I did this with the TE room and it showed very similar results. Consistent drafting with on-field production without a lot of capital expenses.

The Whiners took the risk of trading for McCaffrey. They weren't stuck with his signing bonus in the 2022 trade. The Panthers did spend a lot of money for short-term production. You have to look at the entire team makeup. Whiners were a top-level contender while the Pathers weren't.

---

 

[CGI_Ram]

Replace them. Williams and Corum shows you can find them outside the 1st round.

 

[PARAM]

Replace them. Williams and Corum shows you can find them outside the 1st round.

What's interesting is the Rams took 2 shots when it was clear Gurley might not be Gurley anymore. Henderson in the 3rd round (#70) of the 2019 draft and Akers in the 2nd round (#52) of the 2020 draft. They missed on both. Then they go and get Kyren in the 5th (#164) and two years later, Corum in the third (#83), still lower than Henderson by almost half a round. Akers and Henderson combined have 3898 yards rushing while Kyren has 3834. Corum has almost 1,000 (953).

 

[Dodgersrf]

Pay the Oline.
There are plenty of running backs that you can win with.

HOF caliber backs should be paid, but those are very few and far between.

 

[dieterbrock]

Yes you can get rb’s every year in the draft but it doesn’t mean you can get good ones. McVay drafts an RB every year and none have compared to what Kyren does/can do

 

[LARAMSinFeb.]

Pay the Oline.

 

[pvtdragon39]

BOTH

Kyren is a very good RB. But some credit for his success has to go to McVay and his offenses, too.

No one compares to Gurley, but I could see the argument where RBs are easily replaced.

Barring injury I've seen strong showings from Corum, Akers, Michel, Anderson and even Henderson when given the opportunity under McVay. If given the opportunity, it wouldn't surprise me if Hunter could do the same.

All that said, the reason you pay Kyren is not only his talent, but his character, heart, and leadership.

Im also going to add that Kyren has become a Dual threat in the Passing game! With his Vision, and getting open on impromputu routes. Not only that, His blocking makes some TEs/O'linemen look like shit. For that Matter he pretty much throws a lot of dlinemen around.

Corum is a great team with Kyren and keeps him fresh for later in the game. Yes hes a Shifty fast little SOB, and has that over Kyren a bit. Can he block? Eh sort of. Cant catch for shit neither. I say Keep them both. We have bigger problems to deal with.

Say all you want about Kyren being a system RB or whatever. All he does is SCORE!!!!!

Kyrens Numbers are in all-Time Rams Great Leaders now! Touchdown Machine.

Yet all the Above Rb's combined have not done anything close to Kyrens performance last 3 seasons.
Kyren is Avg right up there with the Sjax and Gurley Seasons.

 

[Merlin]

What's interesting is the Rams took 2 shots when it was clear Gurley might not be Gurley anymore. Henderson in the 3rd round (#70) of the 2019 draft and Akers in the 2nd round (#52) of the 2020 draft. They missed on both. Then they go and get Kyren in the 5th (#164) and two years later, Corum in the third (#83), still lower than Henderson by almost half a round. Akers and Henderson combined have 3898 yards rushing while Kyren has 3834. Corum has almost 1,000 (953).

Yeah and the fact Kyren got locked up is because the Rams to some extent recognize they haven't been very good at drafting the position. They've whiffed quite a lot.

Also I have to think a team like the Rams go back and evaluate how they fucked up each of those picks. What they missed, and how to avoid making those same mistakes. And to some extent I think their problem was poor RB Coach hires. Coaches inevitably have skin in those draft selections, so you can't blame it all on the scouting.

The current RB Coach I think is top tier, btw. So I figure what we'll see coming out of camp is a RB room of Williams > Corum > Connors. Connors will be the pass game threat and third down specialist.

 

[Memento]

Replace.

I love K-Will - St. Louis kid and all - but when his contract ends, we shouldn't re-sign him. Corum is another back who is good, but older and has a lot of mileage for a back, and when his rookie contract has a year left, I'd deal him for a good pick. But still, we can find running backs in the second and third days of the draft (and even as UDFAs, occasionally); we've proven that with our current top backs.

 

[PARAM]

And to some extent I think their problem was poor RB Coach hires.

I think it was a between the ears problem with those 2 RBs. Neither one caught on anywhere else. Sure O'Connell gave Akers a couple of shots in Minnesota but replaced him.

 

[LARAMSinFeb.]

Replace.

I love K-Will - St. Louis kid and all - but when his contract ends, we shouldn't re-sign him. Corum is another back who is good, but older and has a lot of mileage for a back, and when his rookie contract has a year left, I'd deal him for a good pick. But still, we can find running backs in the second and third days of the draft (and even as UDFAs, occasionally); we've proven that with our current top backs.

I'd pay all of our OL first. But I've been rewatching 2025 games and at times Puka and Kyren were the only things working. Actually a lot of times.

Unrelated, but btw I think McVay's running game scheme has evolved to avoid TFL or no-gains, rather than ripping big ones.