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http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2016/in...aft-busts-2016-class-darron-lee-new-york-jets
With a high draft position comes high expectations, and unfairly or not, players will be judged against their peers. In some cases, Pro Football Focus may like the player, but not on the team that picked him and not at the spot where he was picked. In other cases, players simply shouldn't be taken in the first or second rounds.
Here's a look at 10 players most likely to not live up to their draft spot, using PFF data to back up our assertions.
Darron Lee, LB, New York Jets
First round, No. 20 overall
PFF likes Lee as a player, but we didn't think he should have been taken in the first round. The skills for which he was drafted have not been up to par the last two years. His coverage grade ranked 73rd among linebackers in 2015, and he posted a negative grade in 2014. The expectation is that Lee will become a three-down linebacker with coverage versatility, but he wasn't effective in that role at Ohio State. Lee's a good athlete, however, and it shows up in the run game and as a pass-rusher, where his +8.2 rush grade was among the nation's best in 2015. But athleticism should not be synonymous with coverage ability, and Lee has a ways to go as a coverage player before warranting that first-round selection.
Keanu Neal, S, Atlanta Falcons
First round, No. 17 overall
Every year we see box safeties go in the first round with hopes of finding the next Kam Chancellor, and this selection is a prime example of drafting a player in the first round who should have been available much later. Neal's -3.0 overall grade last season ranked 93rd in the nation, highlighted by his 16 missed tackles. While NFL teams like having an enforcer patrolling the middle of the field, the safety position is about making the expected plays rather than filling the highlight reel. Though Neal will certainly get his fair share of big hits, he has to be much more consistent in making the plays he's supposed to make to warrant being a first-round pick.
Taylor Decker, OT, Detroit Lions
First round, No. 16 overall
I believe offensive tackles are generally overrated in roster construction, and Decker, a tackle who had issues in pass protection in college, make him a risky pick. He is another player we liked as more of a second-round prospect as he brings a powerful run-blocking presence to the Lions, but back-to-back years of average pass-blocking grades are cause for concern. Decker's pass protection was not on the level of the other top tackles in the first round (Ronnie Stanley, Jack Conklin, and Laremy Tunsil). His +1.6 grade last season ranked 37th among offensive tackles in the draft class. Detroit is hoping his size and length will help him to develop in that area, but it's a risky proposition for a player taken in the top half of the first round.
Eli Apple, CB, New York Giants
First round, No. 10 overall
Apple doesn't fit in New York's scheme, and there were better prospects on the board at No. 10. He is one of the best press-man corners in his class, but the Giants played man coverage only 30.4 percent of the time last year, 21st in the league. If they're changing the scheme to reflect Apple's skill set, this pick makes more sense, but he struggles in space -- he had nine missed tackles in 2015 -- and he's not as adept at reading route concepts in zone coverage. Taking Apple is a big risk unless the Giants play to his strengths.
Artie Burns, CB, Pittsburgh Steelers
First round, No. 25 overall
On paper, Burns does not look like a great scheme fit for the Steelers. He's a long, press-man corner, but Pittsburgh played more zone coverage than any team in the league last year. Burns is not great when playing off coverage, and he's not smooth when closing on underneath passes. Unless a scheme change is in order, he doesn't fit in the Steelers' defense. If Burns plays more man coverage, he has a chance to be successful even though he's often too physical at times -- his nine penalties ranked third in the nation in 2015. Also concerning is a +2.8 coverage grade than ranked 42nd in the class, lower than you'd like to see for a first-round corner.
Germain Ifedi, OT, Seattle Seahawks
First round, No. 31 overall
Ifedi has great size and length, but like Decker, his struggles in pass protection are worrisome for a first-round tackle. His -1.9 pass-blocking grade ranked 67th in the draft class and he surrendered five sacks, three quarterback hits, and 18 hurries. Ifedi's tape was littered with ugly plays that led to that pass-blocking grade, though he fared better against the run at +7.8 (23rd in the class). Seattle is hoping his size and athleticism make Ifedi a moldable prospect, but there were too many questions in his game to take him in the first round.
Kevin Dodd, DE/OLB, Tennessee Titans
Second round, No. 33 overall
Dodd is a solid player, but he might be more of a run-first edge defender than a productive pass-rusher in the NFL. He finished sixth in the class against the run, using his good hands and block-shedding ability to set the edge and make plays. But despite racking up a lot of pressures, his +18.2 pass-rush grade ranked only 25th in the class. At the top end of the second round, better production will be needed. Dodd is also going to be 24 years old at the start of the NFL season, so given his advanced age, his production is less impressive. PFF rated him as a mid-round pick heading into the draft.
Christian Hackenberg, QB, New York Jets
Second round, No. 51 overall
There are plenty who believe in Hackenberg's character and potential, but we simply did not see an extended level of strong play in his three years at Penn State. His last two seasons were atrocious by all accounts, though much of the blame is often passed to the coaching staff for not utilizing him properly and to the offensive line for not protecting him. While his situation may have been poor, finishing with an accuracy percentage of 64.0 percent, which ranked 69th out of 70 FBS qualifiers, is an alarming number for a second-round pick. Never before has a top prospect been given the benefit of the doubt for two poor seasons leading up to the draft, with the only glimmer of hope being a couple games during his freshman season, but that's the crux of the argument in favor of Hackenberg as a future NFL starter. Even his freshman year was not as good as most think, however, as PFF went back and graded every throw. He finished with a -24.7 overall grade that would have ranked 18th out of the 19 true freshman quarterbacks in 2015. Hackenberg simply hasn't shown the accuracy or decision-making to project him as a good NFL quarterback, and he would have to make monumental strides to live up to his draft position.
Jihad Ward, DE, Oakland Raiders
Second round, No. 44 overall
Ward is another player who presented good mid-round value but might not live up to his second-round billing. There were a number of better defensive linemen on the board. Ward's overall grade was 69th in the class, and his -0.3 pass-rush grade ranked 100th. He had his moments where he looked like a viable run-stopping option when lined up on the interior, but his overall game is too much of a projection to warrant the second-round selection with better options still available.
T.J. Green, S, Indianapolis Colts
Second round, No. 57 overall
Green is an outstanding athlete and his combine put him on the radar for Days 1 and 2, but his on-field play needs a lot of work. While there are rumors that he will get a shot to play cornerback, his work at safety was poor last season -- his -10.8 coverage grade ranked dead last in the draft class, and he finished 90th overall. Green was drafted as an athlete, and he might figure out how to be a solid defensive back down the road, but his 2015 performance was worrisome.
With a high draft position comes high expectations, and unfairly or not, players will be judged against their peers. In some cases, Pro Football Focus may like the player, but not on the team that picked him and not at the spot where he was picked. In other cases, players simply shouldn't be taken in the first or second rounds.
Here's a look at 10 players most likely to not live up to their draft spot, using PFF data to back up our assertions.
Darron Lee, LB, New York Jets
First round, No. 20 overall
PFF likes Lee as a player, but we didn't think he should have been taken in the first round. The skills for which he was drafted have not been up to par the last two years. His coverage grade ranked 73rd among linebackers in 2015, and he posted a negative grade in 2014. The expectation is that Lee will become a three-down linebacker with coverage versatility, but he wasn't effective in that role at Ohio State. Lee's a good athlete, however, and it shows up in the run game and as a pass-rusher, where his +8.2 rush grade was among the nation's best in 2015. But athleticism should not be synonymous with coverage ability, and Lee has a ways to go as a coverage player before warranting that first-round selection.
Keanu Neal, S, Atlanta Falcons
First round, No. 17 overall
Every year we see box safeties go in the first round with hopes of finding the next Kam Chancellor, and this selection is a prime example of drafting a player in the first round who should have been available much later. Neal's -3.0 overall grade last season ranked 93rd in the nation, highlighted by his 16 missed tackles. While NFL teams like having an enforcer patrolling the middle of the field, the safety position is about making the expected plays rather than filling the highlight reel. Though Neal will certainly get his fair share of big hits, he has to be much more consistent in making the plays he's supposed to make to warrant being a first-round pick.
Taylor Decker, OT, Detroit Lions
First round, No. 16 overall
I believe offensive tackles are generally overrated in roster construction, and Decker, a tackle who had issues in pass protection in college, make him a risky pick. He is another player we liked as more of a second-round prospect as he brings a powerful run-blocking presence to the Lions, but back-to-back years of average pass-blocking grades are cause for concern. Decker's pass protection was not on the level of the other top tackles in the first round (Ronnie Stanley, Jack Conklin, and Laremy Tunsil). His +1.6 grade last season ranked 37th among offensive tackles in the draft class. Detroit is hoping his size and length will help him to develop in that area, but it's a risky proposition for a player taken in the top half of the first round.
Eli Apple, CB, New York Giants
First round, No. 10 overall
Apple doesn't fit in New York's scheme, and there were better prospects on the board at No. 10. He is one of the best press-man corners in his class, but the Giants played man coverage only 30.4 percent of the time last year, 21st in the league. If they're changing the scheme to reflect Apple's skill set, this pick makes more sense, but he struggles in space -- he had nine missed tackles in 2015 -- and he's not as adept at reading route concepts in zone coverage. Taking Apple is a big risk unless the Giants play to his strengths.
Artie Burns, CB, Pittsburgh Steelers
First round, No. 25 overall
On paper, Burns does not look like a great scheme fit for the Steelers. He's a long, press-man corner, but Pittsburgh played more zone coverage than any team in the league last year. Burns is not great when playing off coverage, and he's not smooth when closing on underneath passes. Unless a scheme change is in order, he doesn't fit in the Steelers' defense. If Burns plays more man coverage, he has a chance to be successful even though he's often too physical at times -- his nine penalties ranked third in the nation in 2015. Also concerning is a +2.8 coverage grade than ranked 42nd in the class, lower than you'd like to see for a first-round corner.
Germain Ifedi, OT, Seattle Seahawks
First round, No. 31 overall
Ifedi has great size and length, but like Decker, his struggles in pass protection are worrisome for a first-round tackle. His -1.9 pass-blocking grade ranked 67th in the draft class and he surrendered five sacks, three quarterback hits, and 18 hurries. Ifedi's tape was littered with ugly plays that led to that pass-blocking grade, though he fared better against the run at +7.8 (23rd in the class). Seattle is hoping his size and athleticism make Ifedi a moldable prospect, but there were too many questions in his game to take him in the first round.
Kevin Dodd, DE/OLB, Tennessee Titans
Second round, No. 33 overall
Dodd is a solid player, but he might be more of a run-first edge defender than a productive pass-rusher in the NFL. He finished sixth in the class against the run, using his good hands and block-shedding ability to set the edge and make plays. But despite racking up a lot of pressures, his +18.2 pass-rush grade ranked only 25th in the class. At the top end of the second round, better production will be needed. Dodd is also going to be 24 years old at the start of the NFL season, so given his advanced age, his production is less impressive. PFF rated him as a mid-round pick heading into the draft.
Christian Hackenberg, QB, New York Jets
Second round, No. 51 overall
There are plenty who believe in Hackenberg's character and potential, but we simply did not see an extended level of strong play in his three years at Penn State. His last two seasons were atrocious by all accounts, though much of the blame is often passed to the coaching staff for not utilizing him properly and to the offensive line for not protecting him. While his situation may have been poor, finishing with an accuracy percentage of 64.0 percent, which ranked 69th out of 70 FBS qualifiers, is an alarming number for a second-round pick. Never before has a top prospect been given the benefit of the doubt for two poor seasons leading up to the draft, with the only glimmer of hope being a couple games during his freshman season, but that's the crux of the argument in favor of Hackenberg as a future NFL starter. Even his freshman year was not as good as most think, however, as PFF went back and graded every throw. He finished with a -24.7 overall grade that would have ranked 18th out of the 19 true freshman quarterbacks in 2015. Hackenberg simply hasn't shown the accuracy or decision-making to project him as a good NFL quarterback, and he would have to make monumental strides to live up to his draft position.
Jihad Ward, DE, Oakland Raiders
Second round, No. 44 overall
Ward is another player who presented good mid-round value but might not live up to his second-round billing. There were a number of better defensive linemen on the board. Ward's overall grade was 69th in the class, and his -0.3 pass-rush grade ranked 100th. He had his moments where he looked like a viable run-stopping option when lined up on the interior, but his overall game is too much of a projection to warrant the second-round selection with better options still available.
T.J. Green, S, Indianapolis Colts
Second round, No. 57 overall
Green is an outstanding athlete and his combine put him on the radar for Days 1 and 2, but his on-field play needs a lot of work. While there are rumors that he will get a shot to play cornerback, his work at safety was poor last season -- his -10.8 coverage grade ranked dead last in the draft class, and he finished 90th overall. Green was drafted as an athlete, and he might figure out how to be a solid defensive back down the road, but his 2015 performance was worrisome.
