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Rookie adjustments over, these 2011 draftees could break out
By Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN Insider
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/ ... ker-others
Every year people get fired up for the NFL draft, only to be disappointed when they don't see immediate dividends. I do it too. But the reality is that many consider the jump from college to the NFL as bad or worse than the jump from high school to college. It's like the old cliché about sitting down in your first college class at Yale, and the teacher asks "How many of you were valedictorians?" Half the hands go up.
Same deal with the NFL. Nearly every one of these guys was an impact player in college. So I like to look at some guys who saw the field as rookies, or maybe didn't see much but could make a big jump in their second year. I call them my "Leap Year" players.
There could be a few dozen from the 2011 draft, but here are some who jumped out at me based on where they play and the situation they could be in. And remember, if they had a really great rookie year, they won't be on this list. These are in no particular order.
Leonard Hankerson, WR, Redskins
I thought Hankerson was just about to really get it going last year when a hip injury derailed his season. While the Redskins went out and made several moves at wide receiver, I think Hankerson could put up big numbers as a down-the-field threat in Mike Shanahan's offense. He's a bigger target, something this offense lacks otherwise, outside of tight end Fred Davis.
Tyron Smith, OT, Cowboys
How could I have Smith here after he started 16 games for the Cowboys in 2011? It's not that he started, it's where he starts. Smith won't be 22 until December, and the Cowboys worked the youngster in on the right side last year. But if he takes over at left tackle, in a division with the kind of pass-rushers the NFC East has, it'll be a true test of his value. I think he'll do well.
Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Jets
I had Wilkerson pegged as a very promising lineman out of Temple in 2011, but I said that if he waited another year, he had the chance to be a top-10 pick in the 2012 draft. Well, the Jets were sold on the promise, and I think after a year of development, Wilkerson will arrive in 2012. The addition of Quinton Coples will help in the matchups game as well.
Jake Locker, QB, Titans
Now, Locker needs to win the job outright. But look at the situation he could come into. Chris Johnson could be reinvigorated, the offensive line should be improved, and the return of Kenny Britt plus the addition of Kendall Wright (and Nate Washington can still play) make this offense a lot more formidable. Among the three first-round QB picks from last year who really need to make the jump, including Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert, I like Locker's chances in 2012.
Marcell Dareus, DT, Bills
When he lines up at the 4-3 DT position in 2012, Dareus will be able to look to his right and see Mario Williams. To his left will be Kyle Williams. Something's gotta give. I like Dareus in this scheme better, and I think he can really take off as a penetrator from the DT position in 2012. The guy will wreck some pockets.
[hil]Robert Quinn, DE, Rams
I fully expected Quinn to have a so-so rookie season after sitting out his entire final season at North Carolina. But now comfortable, he could easily double the 5.0 sacks he notched last year. Too much talent to keep down.[/hil]
Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings
He caught 26 passes as a rookie, and Rudolph could double that in 2012 as he and Ponder get on the same page. He has great hands and made his share of circus catches last year. If Ponder can get comfortable, Rudolph benefits.
Marvin Austin, DT, Giants
This is more of a long shot because Austin isn't even slated to start, but while he got hurt last year and never really got his season on track, I think he can be a big part of the rotation in 2012 if his health is there. This is an immensely talented kid who just needs to keep his motor running; Tom Coughlin will get him going.
Randall Cobb, WR, Packers
We saw Cobb's explosiveness in the return game last year, but I think he can become a bigger part of the passing game. Remember, this is a former college QB, so there's a learning curve. Give him a full training camp, and with the year under his belt, it's hard to imagine that Green Bay won't want him to get more touches. He's a big-play threat every time he touches the ball.
Justin Houston, OLB, Chiefs
Houston got the tweener tag in a bad way during the draft and fell down the board. Converted to a 3-4 OLB under Romeo Crennel, he began to show off some of his natural pass-rushing skills toward the end of last year. Look for him to emerge as he comes into 2012 comfortable in his role.
Clyde Gates, WR, Dolphins
This is another longer shot because Gates didn't show us much last year. But Miami lacks weapons in the passing game, and this kid can fly if he can become a dependable pass-catcher. Interested to see if he develops into a player. The potential is there for a leap, though.
Jimmy Smith, CB, Ravens
He wasn't healthy to start the year, and Lardarius Webb rightly drew a lot of the attention. But with QBs looking to stay away from Webb, I wouldn't be surprised to see a healthy Smith play at a Pro Bowl level in 2012. The guy has a ton of talent; he just needs to stay healthy and get comfortable in the system.
By Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN Insider
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/ ... ker-others
Every year people get fired up for the NFL draft, only to be disappointed when they don't see immediate dividends. I do it too. But the reality is that many consider the jump from college to the NFL as bad or worse than the jump from high school to college. It's like the old cliché about sitting down in your first college class at Yale, and the teacher asks "How many of you were valedictorians?" Half the hands go up.
Same deal with the NFL. Nearly every one of these guys was an impact player in college. So I like to look at some guys who saw the field as rookies, or maybe didn't see much but could make a big jump in their second year. I call them my "Leap Year" players.
There could be a few dozen from the 2011 draft, but here are some who jumped out at me based on where they play and the situation they could be in. And remember, if they had a really great rookie year, they won't be on this list. These are in no particular order.
Leonard Hankerson, WR, Redskins
I thought Hankerson was just about to really get it going last year when a hip injury derailed his season. While the Redskins went out and made several moves at wide receiver, I think Hankerson could put up big numbers as a down-the-field threat in Mike Shanahan's offense. He's a bigger target, something this offense lacks otherwise, outside of tight end Fred Davis.
Tyron Smith, OT, Cowboys
How could I have Smith here after he started 16 games for the Cowboys in 2011? It's not that he started, it's where he starts. Smith won't be 22 until December, and the Cowboys worked the youngster in on the right side last year. But if he takes over at left tackle, in a division with the kind of pass-rushers the NFC East has, it'll be a true test of his value. I think he'll do well.
Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Jets
I had Wilkerson pegged as a very promising lineman out of Temple in 2011, but I said that if he waited another year, he had the chance to be a top-10 pick in the 2012 draft. Well, the Jets were sold on the promise, and I think after a year of development, Wilkerson will arrive in 2012. The addition of Quinton Coples will help in the matchups game as well.
Jake Locker, QB, Titans
Now, Locker needs to win the job outright. But look at the situation he could come into. Chris Johnson could be reinvigorated, the offensive line should be improved, and the return of Kenny Britt plus the addition of Kendall Wright (and Nate Washington can still play) make this offense a lot more formidable. Among the three first-round QB picks from last year who really need to make the jump, including Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert, I like Locker's chances in 2012.
Marcell Dareus, DT, Bills
When he lines up at the 4-3 DT position in 2012, Dareus will be able to look to his right and see Mario Williams. To his left will be Kyle Williams. Something's gotta give. I like Dareus in this scheme better, and I think he can really take off as a penetrator from the DT position in 2012. The guy will wreck some pockets.
[hil]Robert Quinn, DE, Rams
I fully expected Quinn to have a so-so rookie season after sitting out his entire final season at North Carolina. But now comfortable, he could easily double the 5.0 sacks he notched last year. Too much talent to keep down.[/hil]
Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings
He caught 26 passes as a rookie, and Rudolph could double that in 2012 as he and Ponder get on the same page. He has great hands and made his share of circus catches last year. If Ponder can get comfortable, Rudolph benefits.
Marvin Austin, DT, Giants
This is more of a long shot because Austin isn't even slated to start, but while he got hurt last year and never really got his season on track, I think he can be a big part of the rotation in 2012 if his health is there. This is an immensely talented kid who just needs to keep his motor running; Tom Coughlin will get him going.
Randall Cobb, WR, Packers
We saw Cobb's explosiveness in the return game last year, but I think he can become a bigger part of the passing game. Remember, this is a former college QB, so there's a learning curve. Give him a full training camp, and with the year under his belt, it's hard to imagine that Green Bay won't want him to get more touches. He's a big-play threat every time he touches the ball.
Justin Houston, OLB, Chiefs
Houston got the tweener tag in a bad way during the draft and fell down the board. Converted to a 3-4 OLB under Romeo Crennel, he began to show off some of his natural pass-rushing skills toward the end of last year. Look for him to emerge as he comes into 2012 comfortable in his role.
Clyde Gates, WR, Dolphins
This is another longer shot because Gates didn't show us much last year. But Miami lacks weapons in the passing game, and this kid can fly if he can become a dependable pass-catcher. Interested to see if he develops into a player. The potential is there for a leap, though.
Jimmy Smith, CB, Ravens
He wasn't healthy to start the year, and Lardarius Webb rightly drew a lot of the attention. But with QBs looking to stay away from Webb, I wouldn't be surprised to see a healthy Smith play at a Pro Bowl level in 2012. The guy has a ton of talent; he just needs to stay healthy and get comfortable in the system.