you can really apply this to any position - but your game changers, a'la Julio Jones, AJ Greens, are found at the top of the draft. Watkins to me is very similar to Gordon - but doesn't have any off the field issues that we know of..
there aren't any studs on this roster, and we desperately need one, with one staring at us in the face..that's if we want to take this offense to the next level, imo.
I'm pretty sure this had more to do with Jeffrey's work ethic being extremely questionable as well as showing up 30-40 lbs overweight...
Never said this - at all.
I'm not saying he sucks or he's garbage - but for what he does as a first round receiver for the position he's supposed to fill, I'd want more of a route runner.. He's a good playmaker, good in the open space - but I'd take Deandre Hopkins all day over Patterson from a prospect viewpoint
Would be irrelevant to me anyway - Austin had 2 td's week 2 and a bunch of catches against one of the most garbage defenses in the NFL - Atlanta.
I really need to start talking about how they led the league in drops while bradford was back there right? And still managed to hold a high number of drops with clemens?
Give Bradford all the time you want - it's not going to make these receiver's suddenly catch the ball.
Like I said, I think our chance is better of finding a Jeffery (who made the Pro Bowl) or Patterson (also made the Pro Bowl as a returner?) than a dominant OL like Robinson if needed next year.
2014 Pro Bowl roster
Other than high pedigree Calvin, Andre and AJ (and IMO Watkins isn't as good a prospect as AJ and Juilio)... the best rookie was 3rd rounder Keenan Allen?
Wide receivers
Antonio Brown, Steelers - 6th
Dez Bryant, Cowboys - 1.24
Josh Gordon, Browns - 2nd
A.J. Green, Bengals
Andre Johnson, Texans
Calvin Johnson, Lions
Brandon Marshall, Bears - 4th
Demaryius Thomas, Broncos - 1.22
SEA won the Super Bowl without a big play WR for most of the year. Harvin is a rare, special talent (#2 WR first half of 2012), but he went about 1.20. They played DEN, DT about 1.20, Decker I think a 4th and Welker a UFA? There isn't one mono-solution that is the only possible way to win. Clearly what the offense does best is run, Robinson will accentuate that team strength.
Some other top active WRs that weren't high pedigree (# designates career receiving yards standing)...
Reggie Wayne (#11)
Steve Smith (#19)
Anquan Boldin (#29)
Roddy White (#45)
also
Vincent Jackson
Greg Jennings
DeSean Jackson
Randall Cobb
Victor Cruz
Pierre Garcon
Mike Wallace
The overweight thing about Jeffery is a one note critique. It doesn't change the fact that he should have been the no-brainer pick over Quick. You said hindsight, I say revisionist history on your part. He was a higher graded pick, you have the contrarian, outlier view. Jeffery is listed at 215. When was he ever 255? I guess if the whole WR thing hadn't worked out, he could have just added another 30-40 lbs. and converted to NT!
Anyways, you have it backwards, he lost maybe around 15-20 lbs, didn't gain 30-40 lbs, if you are talking about the combine. People lose weight sometimes to run faster at the Combine. That was an unusual weight fluctuation (BMW did have an issue with this, though WRs generally don't experience Nate Newton-like issues), but it did help him to run a 4.4 at his pro day. He did have a drop off in his final 2011 season compared to a brilliant second to last 2010 campaign at South Carolina (same school and pattern as Clowney). His 2010 season was so good, that even an underwhelming, disappointing 2011 season forced scouts to view the two seasons in context. Reportedly QB may have been more of an issue in 2011. Some teams might have factored it as a good thing that he was dedicated enough to be able to lose the weight.
Mike Mayock's 2012 WR rankings, he was #4 after Blackmon, Floyd and Wright (and just ahead of Givens!). Quick nowhere to be found. Or the since traded SF bust Jenkins. Or NYJ Hill. Scratch Pick.
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/...on-for-2012-draft/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0
I wasn't trying to put words in your mouth, as to what you have said about Jeffery, it doesn't seem like you said much other than critically addressing the weight and work ethic. Not exactly a glowing appraisal. What have you said, regarding... your recollection of Jeffery's CONSENSUS standing relative to Quick? If you say lower, I think you are wrong. If you say higher, than we agree, that is my point that it would have been easy to get a WR like Jeffery in the second, if we had just made the scratch pick instead of falling in love with the workout of a low level of competion, Jerome Simpson-like massive project. It was an irresponsible pick if they knew how raw he was, given the state of our franchise and needing help desperately AT THAT TIME, not 3-4 year later (and if they didn't know, it was incompetent - though I think Snead didn't have his scouting team in place and were scrambling with the predecessors he inherited). Randle also would have been a better pick, who went to LSU, a big time program battle tested in the SEC.
Patterson was nearly a second round pick, he is doing fine for where he was picked, it isn't like he was a 1.2 pick, tremendous value at that spot. The fact that he was a JUCO transfer that was one and done and still managed to be a first rounder is a testament to his bigger, stronger and just as fast Harvin-like talent and skill set that tantalized scouts. If he had stayed another season at Tennessee, I think he would have gone much higher. DT and Josh Gordon weren't master route runners or technicians entering the league, most rookies aren't. Hopkins is good, but in the open field compared to Patterson he looks like a plodder wearing cement shoes. Again, if he had started from day one like Hopkins, he probably has 10-12 TDs (9 as it was, starting about a third of the season). How many TDs would you like to have seen where you could concede, hey, maybe this guy is pretty good despite not being an expert route runner. 15 TDs? 20 TDs? If not for the modest JUCO pedigree, the gig would be up already and everybody would know how good he is. I think he has run a 10.5 100 m., about the same as Watkins, despite being an inch taller and 15 lbs. heavier. He and Austin were the two best rookie returners (kick off and punt, respectively), Patterson may be faster and nearly as quick and elusive, and is 6" taller and about 40 lbs. heavier. Another reason I think he will be great is otherwise outstanding athletes could be brought down by a key attribute - bad hands (fellow 1.7 overall speed merchant busts Troy Williamson and DHB examples). Patterson has great hand-eye coordination and natural hands. He is destined to blow up in 2014 if he starts 16 games. IMO he has DT and Bryant-type upside in a few years (both went after 1.20).
I might be an optimist, but I don't think Austin's drops are a death blow to his chances of becoming a very good NFL WR. Again, Schotty misused him early which might have contributed to some drops. He caught well enough to have a historically good IND game once he was more creatively used, and he did better? He may not be as good a prospect to be a volume WR as Bailey, Austin may have fewer receptions, but a higher percentage of them will be impact, big plays. Speaking of Bailey, you left him out again, he may have the best hands on the team, and started like two games, and was a ST ace most of the season. Clemens isn't as accurate as Bradford, which also could have contributed to the drops.
OL may seem like a conservative pick, but increasingly it seems like a smart one, for the following reasons.
Adding Robinson would seem like it can't help (if as advertised, no different from Watkins) but elevate the baseline of the run and pass game, improving both with better run blocking and giving Bradford more time.
Adding Watkins seems more speculative as to the running game. In theory, a better passing game could open up the running game (DEN an example, though we are pretty freakin far from DEN). Adding Robinson seems to me to be a more straightforward way to improve the run game? No doubt Watkins would improve the pass game. But what if we have OL injuries like we always seem to. If Bradford is hurt, there goes the passing game out the window.
If we fortify the OL, that increases the chance Bradford can play this year. And next year. And the year after. If we miscalculate and take a WR that won't even help if Bradford is injured, it decreases the chance Bradford makes it through 2014. And than there may not be a 2015 or 2016 for him. Which I don't want. IMO, he is our best hope to lead us into the future. I don't want to pull the plug, and I don't want anything external that was preventable, to be the cause of having us pull the plug, after such a big investment in time and money. He does have latent, untapped upside, it would be a shame if because of a lack of protection which has led to his earlier struggles, his career is derailed just as he was on the cusp and threshold of greatness. The long wait is almost over.
Watkins might yield a lot more baseline passing yards, but maybe not if Bradford goes down. Robinson should give us a net gain in rushing and passing yards across the board. With better protection of Bradford on the bonus plan.
Robinson may be a question mark in pass pro, but I don't think he will be as exposed if he is a guard initially, giving him time to develop the requisite technique and bring it up to a level where he can more fully unleash his monstrous physicality.
Watkins may get the ball 3-4 times a game at times if we are a run-centric offense (Fisher pounded the ball at his best with Eddie George). It is doubtful given that we would put Watkins to use and feature him like ATL has Julio Jones, we aren't built like that. Spending a really high pick on him might be a misallocation of draft resources for an asset that we could be underusing. It isn't just about need, but intended and likely use. Robinson wouldn't be underused, if healthy, we will get maximal use from him.
Adding a second top 10 WR in as many years (and Quick was one pick from being a first rounder), prioritizing that ahead of stabilizing an aging (not talking about speculative options like Jones, but our actual OL), oft-injured, uncertain due to free agency OL in flux seems like a recipe for disaster, and smacks of the Lions in the Millen-era, where they took four top 10 WRs, got only one right, chronically neglected the OL, and compiled the third worst seven year stretch in league history.
