Going on 4th down

[majrleaged]

I was watching a replay of the WC game against the Panthers. The Rams own the 1st half and are up by 10, 17 to 7. Near the end of the half, around 6 minutes left, the Rams have a 4th and 3 from around the 20. They can go up by 13. The kicker has missed 1 kick since they acquired him. McVay goes for it and fails. From that point on the Panthers are a different team. They tie the score before half time and the Rams barely pull it out with less than 40seconds in the game.

When you have a team down don't get greedy. take the points. Your momentum stays with you and above all you haven't given the momentum away. It would be great to go up by 3 scores, but what do you risk. I am not saying play it safe no matter what, but the coach has to ask himself. Is what I gain worth the risk. McVay has gotten a little carried away with it. He needs to put his mindset back a few years when he had a reliable kicker. He got into a bad habit compensating for the kicking game. This isn't the only time I think it didn't make sense to take the risk.

 

[Coliseum Ram]

I was watching a replay of the WC game against the Panthers. The Rams own the 1st half and are up by 10, 17 to 7. Near the end of the half, around 6 minutes left, the Rams have a 4th and 3 from around the 20. They can go up by 13. The kicker has missed 1 kick since they acquired him. McVay goes for it and fails. From that point on the Panthers are a different team. They tie the score before half time and the Rams barely pull it out with less than 40seconds in the game.

When you have a team down don't get greedy. take the points. Your momentum stays with you and above all you haven't given the momentum away. It would be great to go up by 3 scores, but what do you risk. I am not saying play it safe no matter what, but the coach has to ask himself. Is what I gain worth the risk. McVay has gotten a little carried away with it. He needs to put his mindset back a few years when he had a reliable kicker. He got into a bad habit compensating for the kicking game. This isn't the only time I think it didn't make sense to take the risk.

THIS is a nonsensical decision by Sean. Almost lost game.

 

[majrleaged]

THIS is a nonsensical decision by Sean. Almost lost game.

It seems like an emotional decision. I would like him to be more logical. I know he says you can't be afraid to take your shot, but that was unnecessary.

 

[LARAMSinFeb.]

As I recall there was some player/coaches conversation around that time that we weren’t finishing teams. In that instance maybe it backfired.

 

[majrleaged]

As I recall there was some player/coaches conversation around that time that we weren’t finishing teams. In that instance maybe it backfired.

The finishing teams complaint comes from trying to run the clock out but never doing it. But you could be right.

Being up 17 would be great, but greed will leave you broke.

 

[Karate61]

Just guessing here obviously, but maybe a lack of trust in the defense and/or special teams abilities played a hand in decisions to go for it on 4th down more often.

 

[LouisvilleRam]

Just guessing here obviously, but maybe a lack of trust in the defense and/or special teams abilities played a hand in decisions to go for it on 4th down more often

Exactly our secondary some how made Young look like MaHomes twice last season and it remained a 2 score game

 

[Ram65]

What was the play call? Not sure, but it was a pass play that didn't have much of a chance.

If the play works, it's big momentum. At that distance, I think I liked the FG better. The momentum shifts with the defense getting a stop.

 

[RamFan58years]

It'll be very interesting to see McVay's decisions this season with this defense. Does he kick the FG, knowing that he has a D that can hold that lead? Or go buck wild with going for it, figuring his D can offset any negative results? I sure hope it's the former - there's RARELY a downside getting sure points, especially early in games. But I still think back on his decision to kick the XP vs Seattle when then went up 29-14. If they went for two in the 4th Q to go up three scores, the game is over. With this D this year I think he'd go for two.

 

[majrleaged]

Just guessing here obviously, but maybe a lack of trust in the defense and/or special teams abilities played a hand in decisions to go for it on 4th down more often.

As I mentioned the Thicker Kicker was doing well.
Not trusting the D might also be a reason to take the points.
Risking the momentum boost when it isn't necessary is a problem. We have seen teams seasons go down the tubes taking that risk when they don't have to.

 

[jjab360]

It seems like an emotional decision. I would like him to be more logical. I know he says you can't be afraid to take your shot, but that was unnecessary.

I think it's the opposite. I imagine it would be close but the analytics probably say to go for it in that situation as they are often way more aggressive than traditional coaching decisions. Emotionally it feels much safer and traditionally you would almost always kick in that situation. I don't remember what the playcall was but the offense was playing well, it was just an unfortunate outcome.

 

[Merlin]

I was watching a replay of the WC game against the Panthers. The Rams own the 1st half and are up by 10, 17 to 7. Near the end of the half, around 6 minutes left, the Rams have a 4th and 3 from around the 20. They can go up by 13. The kicker has missed 1 kick since they acquired him. McVay goes for it and fails. From that point on the Panthers are a different team. They tie the score before half time and the Rams barely pull it out with less than 40seconds in the game.

When you have a team down don't get greedy. take the points. Your momentum stays with you and above all you haven't given the momentum away. It would be great to go up by 3 scores, but what do you risk. I am not saying play it safe no matter what, but the coach has to ask himself. Is what I gain worth the risk. McVay has gotten a little carried away with it. He needs to put his mindset back a few years when he had a reliable kicker. He got into a bad habit compensating for the kicking game. This isn't the only time I think it didn't make sense to take the risk.

I feel the need to observe that the inability of the defense to stop the Panthers had more to do with who was playing in the secondary than any decisions the coaches made.

But I agree it's an interesting conversation as it pertains to McVay's 4th down tendencies. If for example he's got an elite defense will he be more aggressive?

 

[majrleaged]

I think it's the opposite. I imagine it would be close but the analytics probably say to go for it in that situation as they are often way more aggressive than traditional coaching decisions. Emotionally it feels much safer and traditionally you would almost always kick in that situation. I don't remember what the playcall was but the offense was playing well, it was just an unfortunate outcome.

My understanding of the Analytics view on going on 4th down is that you have the other team pinned down at there own end, inside the 10, and you are counting on your D to get you the ball back if you fail because they are being conservative so you have a second chance to get the TD. This was not that situation. They were outside the 20 and it was 4th and 3. Plus our D at that time was like Jekyle and Hyde. Does Analytics take into account the score or the feel of the game?

Either way I thought it was a bad call before the play failed and I have called this out in the past. There is a time to take the risk. That was not it. Even if it was successful I would still believe that.

I think Analytics is the excuse when it fails.

 

[jjab360]

My understanding of the Analytics view on going on 4th down is that you have the other team pinned down at there own end, inside the 10, and you are counting on your D to get you the ball back if you fail because they are being conservative so you have a second chance to get the TD. This was not that situation. They were outside the 20 and it was 4th and 3. Plus our D at that time was like Jekyle and Hyde. Does Analytics take into account the score or the feel of the game?

Either way I thought it was a bad call before the play failed and I have called this out in the past. There is a time to take the risk. That was not it. Even if it was successful I would still believe that.

I think Analytics is the excuse when it fails.

Out of curiosity I punched the scenario into this tool:

NFL 4th Down Calculator - Smart Football Decisions

Make smarter 4th down decisions with our NFL calculator. Analyzes go for it, punt, and field goal options using historical data and win probability.

www.malteranalytics.com

Up 17-7, 4th &3, opponent's 19 yard line, 1:37 left in the 2nd quarter, 0 timeouts left for the opposing team.

92.1% win probability if you go for it, 87.5% if you kick the FG. Slight edge according to this model if you go for it. However this model recommends going for it even if it's 4th & 9 and only recommends the FG if it's 4th & 10 or longer so take that for what you will.

I'll be honest though even if we don't go for it, it's just hard luck or really bad defense that the Panthers were able to score a TD on an 81 yard drive with 54 seconds and no timeouts. I think that unlikely bad result unfairly skews the criticism against McVay's decision making in this scenario which was honestly likely the correct decision. The chance to go up 24-7 and 3 scores is a big difference from being up 20-7 and 2 scores going into the half. Unpopular opinion, I know.

 

[majrleaged]

Out of curiosity I punched the scenario into this tool:

NFL 4th Down Calculator - Smart Football Decisions

Make smarter 4th down decisions with our NFL calculator. Analyzes go for it, punt, and field goal options using historical data and win probability.

www.malteranalytics.com

Up 17-7, 4th &3, opponent's 19 yard line, 1:37 left in the 2nd quarter, 0 timeouts left for the opposing team.

92.1% win probability if you go for it, 87.5% if you kick the FG. Slight edge according to this model if you go for it. However this model recommends going for it even if it's 4th & 9 and only recommends the FG if it's 4th & 10 or longer so take that for what you will.

I'll be honest though even if we don't go for it, it's just hard luck or really bad defense that the Panthers were able to score a TD on an 81 yard drive with 54 seconds and no timeouts. I think that unlikely bad result unfairly skews the criticism against McVay's decision making in this scenario which was honestly likely the correct decision. The chance to go up 24-7 and 3 scores is a big difference from being up 20-7 and 2 scores going into the half. Unpopular opinion, I know.

Funny how analytics puts a percentage on an either or. You either make it or you don’t. After you make a 1st down you still have to score. What if you get a holding call. There are a bunch of scenarios where you still kick a field goal or worse. Plus give life to the opponent.

 

[fanotodd]

I was watching a replay of the WC game against the Panthers. The Rams own the 1st half and are up by 10, 17 to 7. Near the end of the half, around 6 minutes left, the Rams have a 4th and 3 from around the 20. They can go up by 13. The kicker has missed 1 kick since they acquired him. McVay goes for it and fails. From that point on the Panthers are a different team. They tie the score before half time and the Rams barely pull it out with less than 40seconds in the game.

When you have a team down don't get greedy. take the points. Your momentum stays with you and above all you haven't given the momentum away. It would be great to go up by 3 scores, but what do you risk. I am not saying play it safe no matter what, but the coach has to ask himself. Is what I gain worth the risk. McVay has gotten a little carried away with it. He needs to put his mindset back a few years when he had a reliable kicker. He got into a bad habit compensating for the kicking game. This isn't the only time I think it didn't make sense to take the risk.

This is a trend that has got teams in trouble. It’s not just the Rams.

The lions could have easily gone up 17 points on the 9ers in the NFCCG a few years ago and THEIR coach got greedy. They ended up blowing that game with a major collapse. It seemed as if the team themselves questioned the call and never got over that horrendous decision.

Looking like that was the year of the lions and greed kept them out of a SB.

I too, do not comprehend this “go for the jugular” mentality in the post season when the difference between a 2 or 3 score lead is quite significant—even in the 1rst half.

 

[fanotodd]

Funny how analytics puts a percentage on an either or. You either make it or you don’t. After you make a 1st down you still have to score. What if you get a holding call. There are a bunch of scenarios where you still kick a field goal or worse. Plus give life to the opponent.

Thats what cost the falcons the SB.
They didn’t want to run it 3x, make ne burn TOs, and try a FG.
They wanted another 1rst down and a shorter kick.
What happened? A sack and a penalty took them out of FG range.

 

[PARAM]

I think, the overwhelming number of times, going for it on 4th is a sign you trust your defense. If you didn't trust your defense you take points whenever you can get them. Adding 3 is ALWAYS good in that case. On this particular decision?

I think it was based off of how the possession unfolded. They were up 17-7, faced with a 4th down on their own 16, punted and Carolina's special teams fumbled/muffed the punt giving the Rams the ball on Carolina's 41. There was 2:44 left in the half and prior to the 4th down attempt, it was down to 1:37. We had gained 32 yards overcoming a 10 yard penalty and were on their 19. The D was well rested having been on the sidelines for 2 minutes of game time, more in actual time. Obviously, he wanted to put a dagger in them and go up 24-7, knowing what affect it is watching your special teams give up the ball and present the opponent with a scoring chance.

As to how this defense will affect McVay's 4th down decisions going forward, I don't know if it'll change much. Hubris will tell him he's going to be successful anyway so giving a great defense more points to work with or banking on that defense to cover for a failed 4th down attempt, probably won't affect his decision making. IMO, his decision making, when it comes to play calling or going for it on 4th down, is more about his confidence in #9 and that offense, than the confidence level of his defense.

 

[Ramstien]

Anyone that has a problem with McVay going for it on 4th down, answer me this how did you feel about mad Mike Martz?

 

[snackdaddy]

I think, the overwhelming number of times, going for it on 4th is a sign you trust your defense. If you didn't trust your defense you take points whenever you can get them.

We did not have a defense we could trust. The points was the smarter move. I love McVay but sometimes he outsmarts himself. Like when its first and goal inside the 5 and he calls 4 straight pass plays.