What I mean by that.....the ???? is, we never really know, right? We think we do but we really don't. "This guy or that guy is going to be a stud". "Those guys will be fighting for a backup job.". Can't be sure. The last 15 years, who is the QB who turned out the way many envisioned? Joe Burrow. But nobody knew he would spend as much time in the tub but talent-wise, he's as advertised. The next would be Mahomes and Allen, and the only reason they're behind Burrow is they each had QBs drafted ahead of them. Mahomes (#10) had Trubisky (#1) go ahead of him and Allen (#7) had two. Mayfield (#1) and Darnold (#3). So there were other QBs who were expected to be better.
There have been cautionary tales.
Character concerns like Manzel #22 in 2014 (by the Browns).
Desperate moves like the Steelers taking Kenny Pickett (#20) or the Bills taking EJ Manuel (#16) in the first round.
Those were moves expected to fail.
6 times QBs went 1-2 the last 15 years and not with much success.
Luck and RG3 in 2012. Winston/Mariota in 2015. Goff/Wentz. Lawrence/Wilson in 2021. Young/Stroud in 2023 and finally Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels in 2024.
It looks like Caleb/Daniels are the paring with what appears to be the best chance for both to be successful. Young and Stroud still have a chance too, but that's real close to being a "no". Young had moments last year but doesn't really scare DCs (or impress fans) and Stroud made the playoffs again but looked horrible. The kind of horrible lesser men might give up after. I don't think the odds are greater for success with both of them. One, maybe.
47 first round QBs and 12 have seemed to be worth their draft capital or better.
Goff, Mahomes, Mayfield, Darnold, Lamar, Allen, Love, Herbert, Burrow, Lawrence, Maye, Caleb.
Perhaps more depending on the other guys from the last 3 drafts.
Daniels, Penix, Nix, Dart, Ward, Simpson, Mendoza.
Here's something odd.
Five first round QBs from the last 15 drafts have played in a Super Bowl with 2 winning it.
Five QBs taken from round 2 through round 7 the last 15 drafts, have played in the Super Bowl. With 3 winning it.
But even if we give some from the last 3 classes the nod, at best, there might be 16 - 18 'worthy' QBs over the last 15 drafts and Snead has drafted 2 of them? What are the odds of that???? Probably better than the odds of drafting a 3th round WR, who has a triple crown and perhaps one of the two best, if not the best season for a WR in history, then drafting a 5th round WR who sets the rookie record for receptions (since broken) and yards gained (still a record), then leads the league in receptions (2nd in yards) two seasons later. I'd think drafting two excellent QBs might be more common than that.
Nobody knows. But Snead / McVay are approaching that level where nothing they do surprises people. Big trades. EFF them picks. DPOY, DROY. Goff for Stafford. Players traded for with first round picks, multiple first round picks, traded away. First round draftees traded away. But QB has to be the toughest position to scout, draft and develop out of all of them. Talent matters most but it's accepted fact, QB success has got almost as much to do with where you go (franchise-wise) as well as who you go to (head coaching-OC wise). The question is, is Simpson talented enough because obviously he has hit the jackpot with the rest. We'll see....eventually. Right now, I'm going to enjoy watching #9 give Simpson perhaps the biggest learning chance he could possibly have.
And keep my fingers crossed Snead and McVay know QB play.
There have been cautionary tales.
Character concerns like Manzel #22 in 2014 (by the Browns).
Desperate moves like the Steelers taking Kenny Pickett (#20) or the Bills taking EJ Manuel (#16) in the first round.
Those were moves expected to fail.
6 times QBs went 1-2 the last 15 years and not with much success.
Luck and RG3 in 2012. Winston/Mariota in 2015. Goff/Wentz. Lawrence/Wilson in 2021. Young/Stroud in 2023 and finally Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels in 2024.
It looks like Caleb/Daniels are the paring with what appears to be the best chance for both to be successful. Young and Stroud still have a chance too, but that's real close to being a "no". Young had moments last year but doesn't really scare DCs (or impress fans) and Stroud made the playoffs again but looked horrible. The kind of horrible lesser men might give up after. I don't think the odds are greater for success with both of them. One, maybe.
47 first round QBs and 12 have seemed to be worth their draft capital or better.
Goff, Mahomes, Mayfield, Darnold, Lamar, Allen, Love, Herbert, Burrow, Lawrence, Maye, Caleb.
Perhaps more depending on the other guys from the last 3 drafts.
Daniels, Penix, Nix, Dart, Ward, Simpson, Mendoza.
Here's something odd.
Five first round QBs from the last 15 drafts have played in a Super Bowl with 2 winning it.
Five QBs taken from round 2 through round 7 the last 15 drafts, have played in the Super Bowl. With 3 winning it.
But even if we give some from the last 3 classes the nod, at best, there might be 16 - 18 'worthy' QBs over the last 15 drafts and Snead has drafted 2 of them? What are the odds of that???? Probably better than the odds of drafting a 3th round WR, who has a triple crown and perhaps one of the two best, if not the best season for a WR in history, then drafting a 5th round WR who sets the rookie record for receptions (since broken) and yards gained (still a record), then leads the league in receptions (2nd in yards) two seasons later. I'd think drafting two excellent QBs might be more common than that.
Nobody knows. But Snead / McVay are approaching that level where nothing they do surprises people. Big trades. EFF them picks. DPOY, DROY. Goff for Stafford. Players traded for with first round picks, multiple first round picks, traded away. First round draftees traded away. But QB has to be the toughest position to scout, draft and develop out of all of them. Talent matters most but it's accepted fact, QB success has got almost as much to do with where you go (franchise-wise) as well as who you go to (head coaching-OC wise). The question is, is Simpson talented enough because obviously he has hit the jackpot with the rest. We'll see....eventually. Right now, I'm going to enjoy watching #9 give Simpson perhaps the biggest learning chance he could possibly have.
And keep my fingers crossed Snead and McVay know QB play.
