Austin Simmons

[Twopointtry]

Reclassified

Missouri QB Austin Simmons is one of the reasons that I think the 2028 NFL draft has the potential to become one of the best QB drafts we've ever seen. Simmons is tall, athletic, with very good arm talent. He waited for his turn behind Jaxson Dart at Ole Miss and 2025 was supposed to be his breakout year but then he got injured, opening the door for Trinidad Chambliss. At a new school, Simmons has finally burst onto the scene, and it has vaulted him from being a "draft nobody" to being increasingly mentioned as a potential 1st round pick.

The board rankings for Simmons are all over the map. In the middle of September, per the NFLMDD consensus board, he was 821st. Currently, NFLMDD has him ranked as a 5th round prospect. In a September mock draft by Ian Cummings, Simmons was the 15th overall pick, middle of the 1st round. On other boards, Simmons isn't listed at all. If you use PFN's simulator and Ian Cummings's board, Simmons is an UDFA. Things have changed so quickly, IC simultaneously has him as a 1st round pick and an UDFA. Head spinning stuff. Mass confusion.

Simmons is in his 4th year in college. He graduated early in the spring of 2025, so he might have a master's degree by next spring. There is no academic reason for him to remain in school. So, what if he doesn't wait for 2028 and jumps into 2027 draft? Is he really going to be a 1st round pick or is his bubble about to burst and he'll be a Day 3 pick? Is Simmons really any better than say Nico Iamaleava? If drafted too early, would Simmons become the next Anthony Richardson?

Simmons is intelligent. He did something very rare when he reclassified 2 years early to enroll at Ole Miss. By doing online courses, he already had an associate's degree when he was still in high school. Even though this is his 4th year in college, if he entered the draft, he'd be a year younger than a normal prospect.

In Ian Cummings's October mock, he had Chambliss as the top QB and the 3rd overall selection. Remember, Simmons was initially the starter ahead of Chambliss in 2025. Why would Chambliss be a top-5 pick and Simmons end up as a Day 3 pick? Logically, that makes no sense. It is like when Tom Brady beat out Drew Henson at Michigan and Henson was projected to potentially be a future number one overall pick, but Brady becomes a 6th round pick. If Simmons is better than Chambliss, why can't Simmons be QB1 in the draft? Why can't he be the number one overall pick in the 2027 draft? Maybe all the experts need to "reclassify" Simmons for purposes of the NFL draft.

 

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Part 1: Background

Name, Age: Austin Simmons. Turns 21 in November of 2026. 4th year redshirt junior. Missouri. Ole Miss from 2023 through 2025. Graduated from Ole Miss in spring of 2025 with degree in multi-disciplinary studies. In the fall of 2025, was a master's student studying sports management at Ole Miss.

Size, speed: Listed 6'4'' tall, 220 pounds by Mizzou. Listed 215 pounds by Ole Miss. Draftscout 6'4 1/8'' tall, 215 pounds, 4.82 seconds in 40. Left handed.

4-star recruit from FL. Homeschooled, played sports for HS team. Earned associate's degree when he was still HS age, skipped 2 years of HS ball when he reclassified. Left-handed pitcher with multiple no-hit games in HS. Played baseball for Ole Miss.

Began 2025 as starting QB for Ole Miss. Injured his left ankle early in the 2025 season, then re-injured it in a later game.

Is good friends with Cayden Lee, a WR who transferred with him to Mizzou, continuing a relationship they had at Ole Miss.

2024: 19/32 (59.4% completions), 282 yards, 1 sack, 5-14 rushing.
2025: 45/75 (60.0% compl), 744 yards, 4 TDs, 5 INTs, 5 sacks, 2 Fum, 22-71 rushing, 1 rushing TD.
2026: 93/137 (67.9% compl), 1,287 yards, 13 TDs, 0 INTs, 6 sacks, 1 Fum, 13-2 rushing.

Luke Easterling recently called Simmons one of the biggest risers in the entire draft class, saying that Simmons has "absolutely launched himself into [the first round] conversation."
Ian Cummings's 3-round mock in September: 15th overall, 1st round
Troy Finnegan (Clutchpoints) 5th ranked QB, ahead of Dante Moore (6th) and CJ Carr (7th)
AtoZSports simulator 92 (late 3rd rd)
FirstandTen 131, projected Day 3 pick (4th round)
NFLMDD consensus board 143 (5th round)
PFN simulator using Jacob Infante board, 260 (UDFA)
Drafttek 291, not selected in their 7-round mock draft (UDFA)
SticktotheModel 316, projected 6th round selection
Buffalo Fambase big board 468 (UDFA)
PFN simulator using Ian Cummings board 552 (UDFA)
Fanspeak consensus board not ranked (UDFA)
Draftbuzz not ranked among 36 QBs (UDFA)
PFF not ranked in top 150
Tankathon not ranked
Sam Teets not ranked and not on list of players to study, but Teets recently named him as a stock up draft riser, complimenting Simmons for his arm strength, ability to throw frozen ropes, but questioning his turnover-worthy plays and saying his inexperience showed with processing and reading coverage.

 

[Twopointtry]

Part 2: Strengths

Has the intangibles NFL teams desire in a franchise QB. Supremely self-confident, almost to the point of being egotistical. Very intelligent. I know it sounds like a silly thing to note, but just the way he spins the ball sometimes when he gets the snap from the center, it exudes an "I'm the man" confidence on the field. Regardless of whether other people believe that he's a great QB, in his own mind Simmons thinks he's great.

Prototypical height and size. Twitchy athlete. Turns his body very quickly, loose athlete.

Natural, quick and loose arm. Good mechanics. Helmet balanced, compact delivery. Quick release. Beautiful upper body rotation. Good footwork climbing the pocket. Resets his feet making full-field reads. Very quick feet with small steps. Arm strength to attack at all 3 levels of the field.

Guts to make tight-window throws. Tight spirals. Plenty of gas on throws outside the numbers from the opposite hash. Drives the ball into zone voids. Nails out patterns before the CB can close on the WR.

Can change speeds, proper weight on the ball. Shows good understanding of ball placements. Can throw with touch, not all fastballs.

Capable runner. Escapes sacks. Good acceleration for his size. Decisive scrambler, doesn't take unnecessary sacks or hold the ball too long. A threat on designed QB draws.

Reads the coverage very quickly, fast processor. Has played in 2 different systems, spread offense at Ole Miss and more pro-style formations at Missouri. Reads the route leverage of the WR properly. Shows the ability to hold safeties then drive a post route behind them.

Stats impacted by poor pass blocking at Ole Miss early in 2025 season and by dropped passes. The INT stats are slightly misleading, because fluky things happened, not all his fault.

Inexperienced starter with developmental upside. Best football still ahead of him. Not a finished product. Potential to substantially improve the more he plays. High ceiling, potential franchise starting QB.

 

[Memento]

Simmons has been good for Mizzou; very intelligent and confident QB, exactly what you want in a QB as a leader.

Don't sleep on Cayden Lee, though; he's a senior, and he could be an incredible slot receiver at the next level. Donovan Olugbode will be eligible in 2028, and he is oozing with all of the physical talent that every wide receiver wishes they had.

Also, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Daeden Hopkins. Redshirt sophomore edge who already has six sacks on the season. If he comes out in 2027, I'm hoping he falls to our second-round pick, but with his age and outer-space-high potential, I think he's a sleeper first round pick.

 

[Twopointtry]

I messed up and forgot to mention one of his biggest strengths. He has good potential as a "blitz beater". The blend of his football IQ, size, arm talent and athleticism makes it risky to blitz him. He can hang in the pocket, move a little, then drill a pass to beat the coverage. His traits vs the blitz will get the attention of NFL evaluators.

Part 3: Weaknesses

In his entire career in college, has only started about half a season's worth of games. Very small sample size. Risky to overreact to any particular performance.

Elongated wind-up with pronated wrist, the point of the football facing his own end-zone. He was a good baseball player, so his wind-up is more like a baseball pitcher on the mound. I think this slightly slows his release, creates an opportunity for an EDGE rusher to knock the ball out of his hand before he can throw and it impacts his consistency throwing on the move outside of the pocket.

Prefers to win from the pocket. Not a true dual threat QB. Doesn't have elite speed, agility or run power.

Isn't strong with the ball. Does he have small hands? Doesn't have great grip strength on the ball. Dropped a snap. Soft fumble on a sack. Could be prone to fumbles.

Miscommunications with WRs, making it unclear whether the WR ran the wrong route or if the QB misread the play.

Makes what I consider to be 'arrogant" throws, trying to jam the ball into small windows. Doesn't have a conservative, game-manager mentality. Aggressiveness can be a double-edged sword.

Doesn't consistently throw the receiver open. Sometimes leads them back into the DB. Needs to be more consistent with ball placements.

Air mails some throws. Misses some throws due to lack of touch, too flat and hard instead of dropping the ball in softer. Fastballs sometimes eat up his target on short passes.

Aimlessly throws the ball out of bounds on some plays where it looked like he could have thrown backshoulder to the WR.

Distance control can be off if he tries to put more loft on the pass. If he tries to add more zip to the pass, sometimes the accuracy suffers. Same if his delivery gets rushed.

His eyes can drag defenders to the intended receiver.

Has had good WR talent. Benefitted from some very clean pockets with no pass rush pressure. Mizzou has a TE draft prospect. Several of his games have been against weak competition, so hasn't been battle-tested against top notch defenses.

 

[Twopointtry]

Also, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Daeden Hopkins. Redshirt sophomore edge who already has six sacks on the season. If he comes out in 2027, I'm hoping he falls to our second-round pick, but with his age and outer-space-high potential, I think he's a sleeper first round pick.

Thanks. Don't know anything about him. I'll have to check him out sometime.

 

[Twopointtry]

Draft Grade and NFL comp

3rd round grade. (Trevor Lawrence, 1st overall selection 2021, Jacksonville Jaguars, Clemson)

My rule of thumb is I try to never give a QB a 2nd round grade. If Simmons waited for 2028 and got another season of starting experience, he'd be a candidate to become a top 10 overall pick. Maybe he'll get there this year. If he has a fantastic rest of the 2026 season, he could be the number one overall pick in the 2027 draft. I think the door is open.

I'm reluctant to grade Simmons too high right now, because he hasn't started enough games. Some of his tape is uneven with outstanding plays and some plays that aren't as good, so until we have more information and he's "proven it" in bigger games, he's still a speculative prospect. For skeptics, Simmons might be the next DeShone Kizer.

I like his physical tools. He's a QB to watch, because someday he could be an impact NFL starter, but I need to see more before moving him all the way into the 1st round.

If Simmons does eventually force his way into the 1st round, this could indirectly impact the Rams, because it could result in a different player falling down the board. For example, when I do sims, often I use the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd team. The Browns have 2 picks in the 1st round due to the Myles Garrett trade. They also have their 2nd round pick. Often, I'll pass on QB for the Browns in order to draft Jeremiah Smith or Leonard Moore. The Browns still need a QB. For discussion, let's say they draft Simmons with the pick they got from the Rams. This could result in them not drafting an EDGE rusher or a CB at that slot, creating a domino effect down the board where there becomes a player left at one of those positions you weren't expecting to reach the Rams in the 2nd round.

Alternatively, keeping more QBs on the board opens up better possibilities for the Rams to trade down. If Simmons is still available when the Rams pick, maybe a different team will like him and want to move up to get him. We might be able to get more than the trade chart value if they think he's a sleeper and should have been taken in the 1st round. Just some things to think about as the season progresses, because things won't stay where they are right now, with Simmons considered a 1st round pick in some mocks and an UDFA on other boards. If he enters the draft, the numbers will move closer together and some type of consensus will build around him. Too early to know where it will put him, because right now the spread is too large.

 

[Twopointtry]

Also, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Daeden Hopkins. Redshirt sophomore edge who already has six sacks on the season. If he comes out in 2027, I'm hoping he falls to our second-round pick, but with his age and outer-space-high potential, I think he's a sleeper first round pick.

Hopkins is a true sophomore, only his 2nd year, so he isn't draft-eligible. On F&T, he's on the fringe of being a 1st round pick for 2028, 41st overall.

 

[Memento]

Hopkins is a true sophomore, only his 2nd year, so he isn't draft-eligible. On F&T, he's on the fringe of being a 1st round pick for 2028, 41st overall.

He redshirted at the limit for redshirting of his freshman year to preserve eligibility. He's a redshirt sophomore or at the very least, a redshirt freshman, I'm pretty sure.

I still think he's a first-round sleeper.

 

[Twopointtry]

Mel Kiper has Simmons as the 10th ranked prospect on the big board.

 

[Twopointtry]

Simmons definitely seems to be gaining traction as a 1st round pick. B/R mocked him 13. He could end up being this year's Jayden Daniels and go very high. I don't think Simmons played as well recently as he did in the first few games but I think the hype is real, because of his height, arm strength and he doesn't have some of the injury or other baggage as other QBs. Moreover, if his stock stays high, I think it would be better for him to jump into the 2027 draft vs waiting for 2028, so there is a decent chance he'll be in the draft. In turn, this could impact the decisions or the draft slots of the other QB prospects.

Also, in the same B/R mock, they had Knapp at 10. That would bum me out, because he's one of the players I'd love to fall to the Rams.