- Joined
- Jan 14, 2013
- Messages
- 5,328
- Name
- Dave
*Disclaimer the following will make most of you roll your eyes... and the rest won't read it all. That's ok.
I am writing this in the hope that someone out there finds something interesting in the mixed-up mess of words, numbers and thoughts I will try to present.
There are many similarities between the two Quarterbacks I'm comparing here. When looking at their pre-draft rookie scouting reports, many of the descriptions used to describe their "Pros" and "Cons" in college and potential are completely interchangeable to a surprising extent.
The similarities between them run deep and wide, too.
Both played at small college programs in a spread offense where they put up enormous record setting numbers. Both considered very intelligent and heralded for their natural leadership skills. Both were called "tough" and were known for being "gamers". Both had question marks about their arm talent and being able to throw intermediate and deep passes with enough zip, touch and accuracy to win in the NFL.
There are some differences of course.
QB#1 was drafted 10 years earlier than QB#2, who wasn't drafted at all. QB#1s draft class lacked any real prototypical QBs and was weak at that position from top to bottom with only one first round QB being selected.
The rookie Quarterback class that QB#2 found himself in was considerably different in both depth and prestige and was without question one of the most highly regarded and hyped QB classes since 1983.
FIRST 20 NFL STARTS
QB#1 ____________________ QB#2
QBR - 69.8 _______________ QBR - 79.3
YDS - 4,159 ______________ YDS - 3,848
TD - 21 __________________ TD - 19
INT - 22 _________________ INT - 12
Cmp - 391 _______________ Cmp - 325
Att - 692 _________________ Att - 576
CP% - 60.8 _______________ CP% - 56.4
YPA - 6.01 _______________ YPA - 6.6
YPC - 10.6 _______________ YPC - 11.8
So these two guys who shared so many common traits before starting their first 20 NFL games continued that trend by putting up very comparable numbers. In almost every category QB#2 has the edge, though it's close.
When we account for the fact that QB#1 averaged almost 20% more passes per game, it becomes clear that his only legitimately superior stat is his completion percentage. Both post subpar numbers in that category but QB#2 is clearly losing in that department.
Both of these guys started on bad teams. Neither played in more than one game as a rookie.
...Oh, and neither of them is over 6'1".
(As I'm sure most of you have already guessed)
QB#1 - Drew Brees
QB#2 - Case Keenum
Like so many great QBs, Brees needed time. He didn't enter the league as the badass HOF lock we know now.
He had to learn to play in a pro style offense and he had to continue to learn how to not let his height hold him back from being successful at the next level.
There is no question that Brees has always had a superior arm.
(seemingly more so after the surgery to repair his injured shoulder before being traded to the Saints)
I am 99.999% sure that Keenum will never really come close to being the same caliber of passer that Brees has become..... but it is entirely possible, I'd say probable, that Keenum will continue to improve with time. He will have his ups and downs but if he manages to stick around long enough as a starter, I think he will continue to get better and do what he has always done - find ways to WIN.
Since it's going to be assumed that my post has an ulterior motive regarding Jared Goff, I guess I should be clear on where I stand. I can't wait to see him play and I think he is an awesome prospect and I am still thrilled that we traded up to get him. However, I am also prepared to accept that like Bradford, Brees or any other QB coming out of a spread offense, his adjustment to the NFL might take a little while longer than the average impatient fan wants to believe.
Until he is ready to take over, I'll just relax and enjoy watching Keenum give everything he's got.
I am writing this in the hope that someone out there finds something interesting in the mixed-up mess of words, numbers and thoughts I will try to present.
There are many similarities between the two Quarterbacks I'm comparing here. When looking at their pre-draft rookie scouting reports, many of the descriptions used to describe their "Pros" and "Cons" in college and potential are completely interchangeable to a surprising extent.
The similarities between them run deep and wide, too.
Both played at small college programs in a spread offense where they put up enormous record setting numbers. Both considered very intelligent and heralded for their natural leadership skills. Both were called "tough" and were known for being "gamers". Both had question marks about their arm talent and being able to throw intermediate and deep passes with enough zip, touch and accuracy to win in the NFL.
There are some differences of course.
QB#1 was drafted 10 years earlier than QB#2, who wasn't drafted at all. QB#1s draft class lacked any real prototypical QBs and was weak at that position from top to bottom with only one first round QB being selected.
The rookie Quarterback class that QB#2 found himself in was considerably different in both depth and prestige and was without question one of the most highly regarded and hyped QB classes since 1983.
FIRST 20 NFL STARTS
QB#1 ____________________ QB#2
QBR - 69.8 _______________ QBR - 79.3
YDS - 4,159 ______________ YDS - 3,848
TD - 21 __________________ TD - 19
INT - 22 _________________ INT - 12
Cmp - 391 _______________ Cmp - 325
Att - 692 _________________ Att - 576
CP% - 60.8 _______________ CP% - 56.4
YPA - 6.01 _______________ YPA - 6.6
YPC - 10.6 _______________ YPC - 11.8
So these two guys who shared so many common traits before starting their first 20 NFL games continued that trend by putting up very comparable numbers. In almost every category QB#2 has the edge, though it's close.
When we account for the fact that QB#1 averaged almost 20% more passes per game, it becomes clear that his only legitimately superior stat is his completion percentage. Both post subpar numbers in that category but QB#2 is clearly losing in that department.
Both of these guys started on bad teams. Neither played in more than one game as a rookie.
...Oh, and neither of them is over 6'1".
(As I'm sure most of you have already guessed)
QB#1 - Drew Brees
QB#2 - Case Keenum
Like so many great QBs, Brees needed time. He didn't enter the league as the badass HOF lock we know now.
He had to learn to play in a pro style offense and he had to continue to learn how to not let his height hold him back from being successful at the next level.
There is no question that Brees has always had a superior arm.
(seemingly more so after the surgery to repair his injured shoulder before being traded to the Saints)
I am 99.999% sure that Keenum will never really come close to being the same caliber of passer that Brees has become..... but it is entirely possible, I'd say probable, that Keenum will continue to improve with time. He will have his ups and downs but if he manages to stick around long enough as a starter, I think he will continue to get better and do what he has always done - find ways to WIN.
Since it's going to be assumed that my post has an ulterior motive regarding Jared Goff, I guess I should be clear on where I stand. I can't wait to see him play and I think he is an awesome prospect and I am still thrilled that we traded up to get him. However, I am also prepared to accept that like Bradford, Brees or any other QB coming out of a spread offense, his adjustment to the NFL might take a little while longer than the average impatient fan wants to believe.
Until he is ready to take over, I'll just relax and enjoy watching Keenum give everything he's got.
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