The Fall of the 49ers

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Prime Time

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https://theringer.com/nfl-san-franc...trent-baalke-jed-york-6f31eb4da112#.aigoiojar

After the Gold Rush
The once-proud San Francisco 49ers have been one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. Unfortunately for fans, the franchise’s problems run far deeper than this year’s coach, roster, or record.
By Katie Baker


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San Francisco 49ers head coach Chip Kelly (Getty Images/Ringer illustration)

Outside of the San Francisco 49ers’ Levi’s Stadium on Sunday morning, a man glanced skyward and cackled. He wore a red “FIRE BAALKE” T-shirt and had taped two handmade “FIRE BAALKE” signs to the side and rear windows of his Honda, and as he pointed up at a plane tugging a “JED, YOU REAP WHAT YOU SOW #FIREBAALKE”banner over the tailgate lots, he said, “I can’t take credit for that one!”

Ricky Helton is a longtime season-ticket holder who owns a NINERZ1 license plate, and in Week 14, he appeared delighted not to be alone in requesting that San Francisco CEO Jed York relieve general manager Trent Baalke of his duties. These days, with only the winless, hapless Cleveland Browns sporting a worse record, rooting for the one-win Niners mostly means rooting for massive organizational change.

It was only four seasons ago that the Niners lost by three points in Super Bowl XLVII, and advancing deep into the postseason was no one-season fluke: San Francisco also played in the NFC championship game the year before and after. Since then, however, the organization has parted with two head coaches, including Jim Harbaugh, who went 44–19–1 during his tenure.

The team’s current coach, Chip Kelly, has yet to deliver the fireworks he was hired to bring. Lately, he has spent more time fielding press conference questions about his job security than he’s ever spent picking out visors.

Colin Kaepernick, once an exciting, scrambling quarterback and one of the NFL’s rising stars, now attracts more attention for pregame protests than in-game prowess. The team has allowed 30.2 points per game, worst in the NFL. Levi’s Stadium, the billion-dollar-plus facility that hosted the most recent Super Bowl, is increasingly empty. (It’s a good thing the seats are a festive Niners red.)


View: https://twitter.com/timkawakami/status/808055217350524928

And many of the fans who are still showing up share a common refrain: This isn’t just about Kelly, or the underperforming one-two punch of Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert, or that one particularly embarrassing 45–16 loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 6.

This Niners season betrays front-office egos and ownership meddling; exposes a player-development process that does not seem to have developed many players; and illustrates the distinction between running a profitable, splashy business and running a winning team.

On weekends, the Silicon Valley office parks and hotel clusters around Santa Clara tend to loom conspicuously empty, like shiny, abandoned Olympic venues. Nearby, Levi’s Stadium sits next to an amusement park, some hotels, and not much else. The facility is 40 miles south of the 49ers’ famous former venue, Candlestick Park, but the disconnect between the team’s past and present isn’t only physical. These 49ers are a team with no clear identity.

During a bad season, there’s a logical progression of people to blame. There are the players, who drop balls and miss blocks, and there is the head coach, who calls dumb plays and smacks his gum in hi-def TV in an increasingly bothersome manner.

There’s the general manager, who is theoretically responsible for having hired all the guys mentioned above, and there’s ownership, which can range from a shadowy Wizard of Oz entity to a controversial, omnipresent face. The worse the franchise, the further the blame needs to reach.

The 49ers, at 1–12, do not have a good roster. Kaepernick was pulled in the fourth quarter of an early December game against the Bears, having thrown for 4 yards on the day, and yet he continues to start because the team’s original 2016 starter, Gabbert, is worse. (You know things are bad when there are calls to take a look at young journeyman Christian Ponder, who is on his fourth team in six seasons.)

Some of the top offensive talents who led the team during its deep playoff runs a few years back — receiver Michael Crabtree, running back Frank Gore — have since left via free agency. (Crabtree now plays for the Bay Area’s good team, the resurgent Oakland Raiders.)

These Niners rank in the bottom five in yards per game, and because that impotent offense forces the already mediocre defense to take the field much more than it ought to, many losses have devolved into blowouts. The team’s only win came in Week 1, against a laughingstock Los Angeles Rams team that has since fired its coach.

The grim offensive output is particularly frustrating considering Kelly’s background. At the University of Oregon, Kelly was known for his freewheeling style, innovative schemes, and swagger. (He was frequently hailed as Big Balls Chip.) His three-season tenure with the Eagles was a mixed bag that included an NFC East title but also a power struggle over personnel decisions and control.

But the high-octane play-calling on which he built his reputation has not been present this season. If it weren’t for the weakness of the roster, and the fact that this is only his first year with the team, there’s a good chance that his seat would be even hotter than it already is.

But Kelly hasn’t yet been in San Francisco long enough for the critiques to turn truly bitter and personal, the way they have toward Baalke and York. Baalke has been with the team since joining as a scout in 2005, has overseen the 49ers drafts since 2010, and was promoted to general manager in 2011 just before the Niners hired Harbaugh. In his first year as GM he won PFWA Executive of the Year honors as the 49ers broke an eight-season playoff drought.

But as the team has struggled over the past few seasons, the GM’s stock has fallen precipitously, and his departure is starting to feel like a real possibility. A Sunday report from CBS’s Jason La Canfora painted a bleak picture of Baalke’s future with the team, and on Wednesday, CSN Bay Area’s Matt Maiocco suggested that Baalke may already have a landing spot lined up in Denver.

Even Baalke’s defenders, like former 49ers quarterback Trent Dilfer, have managed to make things somehow worse: On Tuesday, Dilfer compared players to “groceries” and said it was the responsibility of the coaching staff, and not Baalke, to “develop, you know, to make the dinner and get the most out of the flavor of those players.” Now Baalke’s name has made its way onto a derisive plane banner, a dishonor that until this season was typically reserved for York.

York is in his seventh season as team CEO and is the scion of a family that has owned the club since 1977. He has established himself as the face of the franchise on the business side through his dogged involvement with the fundraising and development of Levi’s Stadium.

And while his parents, the team’s co-chairmen, remain mostly behind the scenes when it comes to the football side of things, York’s job involves being present day-to-day. As a result, he has become the target of criticism in all sorts of forms: from “fatherly advice” to derisive inflatable dongs. And then there are the planes.

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A 49ers fan (Getty Images)

Sunday wasn’t the first time that fed-up fans had chartered a snarky flyby over Levi’s Stadium. Last November, a plane bearing the message “JED & 49ERS SHOULD MUTUALLY PART WAYS” did loops above Santa Clara. A month later there was a new sign: “HOLD JED ACCOUNTABLE.”

Both slogans were ostensibly in reference to one of the more memorable press conferences in 49ers history, the December 29, 2014, gathering in which York and Baalke addressed the prior day’s breakup with Harbaugh. York and Baalke variously described what happened as “a mutual parting of the ways,” “a mutual parting,” “a mutual decision,” and “fairly mutual.” Between the two of them, they said the words “accountable” and “accountability” some 20 times.

This fall, when Mercury News columnist Tim Kawakami characterized the atmosphere around the Niners as “a frothy mix of Monty Python farce, ‘Big Brother’ plotting, Stalin-era revisionist history, and of course, the patented Jed York/Trent Baalke spin-machine leak-o’-rama,” he was referring in large part to Harbaugh’s final season. In the four years he coached the 49ers, Harbaugh made it to three conference finals and a Super Bowl.

He earned AP Coach of the Year honors for the 2011 season. Early in his tenure, he supposedly jogged and played racquetball with Baalke. But his relationship with team management grew increasingly strained, and nearly a full year before his departure reports unflattering to Harbaugh began leaking out of the organization.

In February 2014, just weeks after the Niners went to their third straight NFC championship game, news broke that San Francisco had nearly traded Harbaugh to the Cleveland Browns, and CBS Sports reported that Harbaugh and Baalke were barely on speaking terms. Early in the 2014 season, Deion Sanders said on the NFL Network that the players wanted Harbaugh out. (“Personally, I feel that’s a bunch of crap,” Harbaugh replied.) And Harbaugh’s reported issues with management weren’t limited to Baalke.

The juiciest unconfirmed nugget of the whole affair didn’t make its way into the public sphere until the following summer, but it involved York walking into the room during a team meeting and Harbaugh telling him it was for “men only.” The team finished 8–8 that season and missed the playoffs, giving the front office a perceived opening to make the move.

“We don’t raise division championships banners,” York said at the December 2014 press conference. “We don’t raise NFC championship banners. We raise Super Bowl banners. And whenever we don’t deliver that, I hope that you will hold me directly responsible and accountable for it.” The team’s record since he said that is 6–23. The URL for the GoFundMe account that raised money for the latest plane flyby this past Sunday included the phrase “MoreBannersThanJed.”

And once again, the phrasing — YOU REAP WHAT YOU SOW — appeared to be inspired by real-world events. Two months after his ouster, Harbaugh deniedthat the parting was mutual, and when after just one season the Niners fired Harbaugh’s replacement, longtime team assistant Jim Tomsula, announced via terse written statement, Harbaugh tweeted: “Do not be deceived. You will reap what you sow.”


View: https://twitter.com/CoachJim4UM/status/683860131285741568

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San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick (Getty Images)

If ever a game underlined the way this season has gone for San Francisco, it was Sunday’s clash of the titans against the Jets. This one actually seemed winnable: Like the Niners’, the Jets’ recent history is littered with the smoldering wreckage of discarded quarterbacks, cast-aside coaches, embattled GMs (one even got the plane banner treatment!), and a new stadium.

Under Rex Ryan, the Jets went to, and lost, consecutive AFC championship games in the 2009 and 2010 seasons, a memory that seems so long ago. New York entered the Niners game with as many wins on the season — three — as quarterbacks it had started.

A Jets fan in a Namath jersey tried to bring a DRAFT BOWL sign into the stadium, but security deemed it a prohibited item. Earlier in the morning, as a tailgater waiting for the parking lot gates to open stood spread-legged on the back of his pickup truck spraying lighter fluid onto a big black industrial grill, the Mad Max: Fury Road vibe seemed appropriate for this sort of dystopia.

A few feet away, a woman in a knit 49ers dress and a Santa hat discussed the latest rumor du jour — that the Yorks were thinking of bringing in someone like Mike Shanahan to oversee football operations — with a friend in a gold Starter jacket.

The 49ers, who rank in the bottom third of the league in interceptions, picked off Jets whatever-string quarterback Bryce Petty on his very first throw. They led 14–0 just a few minutes in. San Francisco running back Carlos Hyde scored a touchdown and ran for 141 yards in the first half. At halftime, cute little dogs did Frisbee tricks on the field. Rain threatened but never came. For a couple of hours, life was good. Then, bit by bit, everything crumbled, just as this whole season has.

It’s hard to say what was worse: that Kaepernick threw for 4 yards in the second half, or that when Jets coach Todd Bowles was asked postgame what his team had done to shut down the Niners offense, he began with: “Well, we didn’t do much.” A Jets drive in the fourth quarter lasted more than eight minutes and culminated in a touchdown and a successful two-point conversion. In the final minute, New York tied the game with a 50-yard Nick Folk field goal.

There’s no cheering allowed in a press box, but at this point there were a whole lot of snickers and groans. Many fans began filing up the stadium steps toward the exit before overtime even began, knowing how it was likely to end. They were right.

When Kelly opted to go for it in overtime on fourth-and-two from the Jets’ 37 yard line, it seemed like he might be up to his old Big Balls Chip tricks. But then he sent Hyde straight up the middle, a dud Red Rover attempt that ended with the running back, and the Niners’ slim hopes of some small celebration, totally stuffed.

“It doesn’t really matter,” Hyde said after the game when asked about his performance. “I’d take the win over the stats any day. I really wanted to win that one. I wanted to win all of them.”

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49ers GM Trent Baalke (Getty Images)

Hyde has rushed for 879 yards this season and is one of the few positives in Baalke’s draft history, which began when GM Scot McCloughan left the organization a month before the 2010 draft in what York termed a “mutual parting.” (Now the Redskins general manager, McCloughan opened up in late 2014 to ESPN The Magazine’s Seth Wickersham about the struggles with alcohol that led to his departure from both the Niners and from the Seahawks after that.)

McCloughan remains widely respected as a keen assessor of prospective talent, and many of his San Francisco draft picks, like Crabtree, Gore, and Vernon Davis, were crucial parts of the 49ers’ deep runs from 2011 to 2013. But by then, Baalke was the one reaping the benefits of positive association.

This season, however, has provided ample evidence that Baalke has struggled to make franchise-improving decisions. Baalke has characterized the 49ers as a “draft and develop” team rather than one that seeks to be aggressive in free agency. But his draft history has mostly ranged from unexceptional to, as in 2012, downright bad.

He has been at the helm for long enough that the Niners roster now reflects his player personnel choices — and that Niners roster scares no one. Meanwhile, his skill set beyond the draft appears equally limited. Two of the most important decisions an NFL GM makes is who should be coach, and who should be quarterback. Tomsula’s one-year tenure and Kelly’s inauspicious start do not make for a good recent track record, and the team’s situation at quarterback is no better.

And even situations that might be bright(er) spots, like the season Hyde is having, or the recent five-year contract extension for Vance McDonald, have dark linings. In Hyde’s draft, Baalke considered trading up to pick Odell Beckham Jr., but deemed the price too high.

Two days after McDonald signed, the tight end suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in the Jets game. It’s unfair to cherry-pick these bits of hindsight and ascribe blame for an injury, but few San Francisco supporters are looking to give Baalke the benefit of the doubt. Instead, they’re left wondering why York has.

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49ers CEO Jed York (Getty Images)

The Niners haven’t won a Super Bowl since the 1994 season, when York’s uncle and godfather, Eddie DeBartolo Jr., still owned the team. DeBartolo presided over five Super Bowl wins; he also pleaded guilty to a felony charge related to a riverboat gambling license. (The plea deal, which was part of a larger case against corrupt former Louisiana governor Edwin Edwards, prompted Edwards to deem DeBartolo“the Linda Tripp of Louisiana.”) And though his legal troubles did not prevent DeBartolo from being named to the NFL Hall of Fame earlier this year, they did cause something of a family schism back in the late ’90s.

In 1997, during the course of his legal issues, DeBartolo transferred the team’s majority ownership to his sister, Denise DeBartolo York, who had previously been a part owner and president of the Pittsburgh Penguins, and who has her name engraved on the Stanley Cup. But by 1999, the siblings were locked in a legal dispute involving tax attorneys, debts, a couple hundred million dollars, real estate holdings, and the 49ers. An angry DeBartolo said then that he hadn’t chosen York as his sister: “Genes did that.”

The team remained in the hands of York and her husband, John. In 2000, in a rare public interview, York lashed back in the pages of the San Francisco Chronicle. “You know what I resent the most from all of this?” she said. “I didn’t ask for any of this to happen. It fell into my lap: the 49ers, the accusations, the scrutiny, all of it.”

In late 2008, the Yorks appointed their oldest son Jed, then 27 years old, to be team president. “I am here by six every morning and stay until late at night,” he toldHaute Living magazine the following summer. “Because it’s not my team. It’s not my family’s team. It’s our fans’ team. Because if they are not supporting us, if they don’t believe in what we are doing, then our team doesn’t exist.”

But it is his team. The radio report suggesting that York might lose some of his football operations control was refuted days later by NBC’s Mike Florio. The question with York probably isn’t about his level of influence and control, but how he will learn from and use it.

York is still a young executive who has spent the majority of his career working closely with Baalke, who publicly supported his ownership earlier this season, and who has, in turn, benefited from York opting to maintain the status quo at GM. But York is running out of football justifications for continuing to do so.

In October, after the brutal Buffalo loss, York’s cousin Lisa sent and later deleted a pair of tweets critical of the team and of York specifically. And DeBartolo’s recent Hall of Fame speech, which was more than 3,000 words long, went into great depth about the importance of family, but did not include his godson and nephew by name. All he said was, “I’m also privileged to be joined by my sister, Denise, and her wonderful family today.”


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As the team has gotten worse, the discrepancy between its profitability and its product has widened. Season-ticket holders have seen the value of their personal seat licenses sink. And on Wednesday, 49ers great Steve Young brought up these tensions on the radio, remarking that while the York family had undoubtedly boosted the price of their franchise, they have done so at the expense of the things that should really be valued.

“[The Yorks’] equity value in the team is their A game. It’s what drives them,” Young said. “It’s what drives most of the owners. It’s what matters. It’s what they think about. It’s what they talk about. And the B game is whether we win some games. … That’s the biggest issue with the NFL, is that success doesn’t track to success on the field. So you’re not held accountable.”

There’s that word again: accountable. In a testy exchange during the December 2014 no-more-Harbaugh press conference, several reporters had pushed back on York’s continued lip service to that idea. The implication was that York might be holding Baalke to a different standard.

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(Katie Baker)

So Jed, you have a coach that just averaged over 12 wins a year in four years. What will the expectation be for a coach coming in?

Jed York: “To win the Super Bowl.”

Right away? In Year 1?

J.Y.: “We expect to win the Super Bowl every year. That is our goal.”

And is that a reasonable expectation? So, what if that coach doesn’t win the Super Bowl in the first couple of years?

J.Y.: “Then we’re going to have to figure out if that’s the right fit.”

Jed, is Trent accountable for that then? He hasn’t won a Super Bowl.

J.Y.: “Absolutely. Absolutely he’s accountable.”

So when does that start coming into play?

J.Y.: “Do you have a stopwatch?”

Niners fans have been watching the clock ever since, waiting to see when those words will be backed up by action. Jesse Mendez, a season-ticket holder who is part of the die-hard “Empire Row” tailgate consortium, is the type of supporter who faithfully arrives at the stadium around 7:15 a.m. on a game day. “If they’re doing good, you gotta get here earlier,” he said.

But even he is reaching a breaking point. “If it’s the same GM,” he said, “I’ll probably not come out to the games next year. I’ll still have my season tickets, because I’ll never let those go, but I’m not going to support this with money inside the stadium.”

Helton, the man with all the FIRE BAALKE paraphernalia, said he didn’t think he could go that far. “Hey, I’m not a boycotter,” he said. “I show up for the players.” The open question among 49ers fans is when, or whether, the organization’s leadership will get back to giving those players the same support.
 

Fatbot

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Naw, they've just reverted back to the true SF "proud franchise's" 35 years of losing (the 49ers were born in 1946, not 1981, sorry media...). They should just shut up and be thankful for their little blip of a run thanks to their mob-money owner, gaming the system with players from other teams (before free agency), and cheating the salary cap (no coincidence they've won zilch ever since the cap). It was such a good run it let them replace their dump of a stadium with a stadium located next to a dump in a different zip code, that's the 49er faithful for ya!
 

RamFan503

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Didn't read the article @Prime Time . but just the title was good enough for me. I could handle reading that title posted each and every year.
 

fearsomefour

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Praying to God we beat them Sunday, which is not a given.
Will salvage something from this dumpster fire season.
 

FRO

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For a few years the 49ers had huge piles of draft picks and a loaded roster. I felt they should use those picks and move up to get more blue chip prospects. Instead they traded back a few times and added more picks. It doesn't matter because the picks they made busted by and large. It all goes to drafting and assembling talent. Talent makes coaches look like geniuses.
 

Loyal

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The best revenge would be hiring Harbaugh and winning a Super Bowl with him and Goff.....
 

dieterbrock

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Praying to God we beat them Sunday, which is not a given.
Will salvage something from this dumpster fire season.
Agreed.
Knowing that the 49ers are 2-15 in their last 17 games puts a big smile on my face
Knowing the 2 wins were against us makes me want to throw up
 

Legatron4

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One of the reasons I wish we waited to fire Fisher was because of these last three games. I think we put up a better fight vs the Seahawks and totally romp the Whiners if Fisher is still here.

On a side note, if Gurley cannot get his 100 yards rushing against them, we are by far the worst team in the NFL.
 

woofwoofmo

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I've got a friend who was a longtime Niner's season ticket holder, back to the days before Montana, Clark, Rice, Taylor, Craig, etc. The move to the new stadium was not done with the common fan in mind. Outlandish PSL's, distance to the game, an imploding team, all led him and almost everyone he knew to give up their tickets. There are a lot of lessons to be learned from anyone building a stadium now. Question is will greed or the long term relationship between fans and the team win out?
 

Prime Time

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  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #15
https://theringer.com/chip-kelly-san-francisco-49ers-offense-f332f053870e#.ekdgzivd8

Chip Kelly’s Second Act
His offense was the epitome of speed, scoring, and football style. Three years ago, he took the NFL by storm. But it’s been downhill ever since. What happened to one of the game’s greatest minds? And can he recapture the magic in San Francisco?
Chris B. Brown/Sep 9

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Getty Images/Ringer illustration

By Thanksgiving Day 2014, it looked like the NFL had found its coach of the future. Armed with a diabolically clever spread offense and fueled by a sports science program that had somehow made smoothies a topic of national conversation, Chip Kelly’s Philadelphia Eagles smashed the Dallas Cowboys 33–10, all but sealing the 9–3 Eagles’ second straight NFC East title under Kelly.

But now, in 2016, the idea that Kelly — whose team made the playoffs just once in three years and who ultimately was fired with a game left in the 2015 season — could personally usher in a football revolution seems almost quaint.

Bill Parcells once said football “is not a game for well-adjusted people,” but Kelly, now the head coach of the San Francisco 49ers, is unusual even by the standards of football coaches.

From his puzzling power plays and bizarre roster moves to his odd backstory (it took Kelly 10 years to get his undergraduate degree and most — including Kelly’s biographer — thought he was a lifelong bachelor until The Washington Post discovered last year that Kelly had been married for seven years in the ’90s), Kelly is one of the most enigmatic figures in football.

But analysis of Chip Kelly the person and Chip Kelly the general manager has obscured a more straightforward question: What happened to Chip Kelly the offensive guru?

Kelly’s vaunted spread offense incinerated his opponents when he coached at Oregon — including college defenses coached by NFL-pedigreed luminaries like Pete Carroll (613 yards and 47 points), Monte Kiffin (730 yards and 62 points; 599 yards and 53 points), and current Chicago Bears defensive coordinator Vic Fangio (626 yards and 52 points) — and it dazzled the NFL as his 2013 Eagles team finished first in rushing yards, rushing yards per attempt, and yards per play, third in offensive efficiency (per Football Outsiders), and fourth in scoring.

But in the two years since Kelly’s offense has gotten progressively worse, bottoming out in 2015 as the Eagles ranked a putrid 26th in efficiency, 23rd in yards per play, and 28th in adjusted yards per pass attempt.

And now Kelly — stripped of any oversight over personnel — is in charge of a 49ers offense that boasts arguably the worst skill-position talent in the NFLand will be led at quarterback by Blaine Gabbert, whose 71.9 career passer rating puts him behind such exalted figures as Geno Smith and Brandon Weeden.

While Kelly’s Oregon and early Eagles offenses broke records by weaving together multiple formations, adaptable running schemes, and multifaceted read-options, all powered by an ingenious spread offense philosophy and a frenetic, up-tempo pace, in the past two years those elements have been undermined or simply fallen away, and Kelly’s offense has become, in Evan Mathis’s words, the most “never-evolving, vanilla offense” in the NFL. How did that happen?


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The fast-paced no-huddle is fundamental not only to Chip Kelly’s offense, but to Chip Kelly the person. Jon Gruden once remarkedthat Kelly’s Oregon teams were “as fast as any team that plays football.” Kelly’s Ducks practiced fast, played fast, and were fast. Everything about Kelly was so rapid-fire that he managed to encapsulate his entire coaching philosophy in a single 30-second commercial for UPS, complete with jump cuts and a drum beat.

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Chip Kelly and Marcus Mariota (Getty Images)

At least for a season, the story was much the same in the NFL, and Kelly’s methods quickly garnered the NFL’s attention. “They go really fast and try to wear the defense down or force [a] communication issue on defense so … even if you’re aligned right, if you’re not able to get your assignments done quickly [and if] there’s space in there, somebody gets free,” New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick said of Kelly’s offense in December. “The speed that they go at, it’s hard to get much communication in. It forces you to kind of simplify things defensively.”

But defenses adjust, and by the end of 2015, Kelly’s opponents barely seemed affected by his tempo. As Belichick pointed out, the biggest benefit of fast tempo is that it takes play-calling away from defensive coordinators, putting the onus on defensive players to communicate and adjust on the fly.

But, as other NFL offenses have increasingly used the no-huddle, defenses have gotten comfortable playing fast themselves, and can now communicate their complex schemes and adjustments with just a word or two. The defenses Kelly’s team faced in 2015 were exponentially more sophisticated than what Kelly faced in 2013, a direct result of defensive coaches and players being better at communicating.

But another element is that while the no-huddle works in the NFL — and Kelly’s 2013 opponents were largely unprepared for Kelly’s pace — it’s not as effective as it is in college football for a very simple reason: The NFL doesn’t permit teams to ever reach the warp speeds Kelly’s Oregon teams typically operated at. While NFL coaches aren’t permitted to openly critique officials or league policy, it’s well understood in coaching circles.

“In the NFL, what they did is the officials stand over the ball until the officials are ready to call the game,” Alabama head coach (and Kelly friend) Nick Saban explained in 2014. “The coach at Philadelphia ran 83 plays a game at Oregon, and runs 65 a game in Philadelphia. …

When they went to Philadelphia in the NFL and they were going so fast, the officials said, ‘We control the pace of the game.’ The league said, ‘The officials control the pace of the game, not a coach.’”

So while defenses had to adjust to Kelly’s tempo, they never had to adjust to the tempo Kelly wanted, only what the NFL allowed. But it’s not like the NFL has singled out Kelly, as it applies just as much to Bill Belichick and Tom Brady when they go no-huddle. Good coaching is about adapting. Kelly has failed to adjust.

While Kelly’s Oregon quarterbacks didn’t run as often as people think — Oregon QB Darron Thomas averaged a mere 346 rushing yards per season from 2010 to 2011 — everyone understands that the threat of the QB run is integral to Kelly’s offense. “We run a ton of zone reads,” Kelly said at a coaching clinic in 2011. “[The quarterback] has to read one of the defenders, in effect blocking him. We can block five defenders and read the sixth one.”

Indeed, a major reason Kelly’s offense was so difficult to defend at Oregon was because he would combine a small handful of basic, sound blocking schemes — inside zone, outside zone, and his patented sweep — with a flurry of QB reads of everyone from defensive tackles to linebackers and even safeties. As used by Kelly, the read-option provides an offense with a multitude of advantages:

It’s easier to read a defender than it is to block him, the reads become built-in misdirection as the defense doesn’t know who has the ball, and, as Kelly pointed out, a QB who is a threat to run alters the fundamental arithmetic of football.

But in the NFL, the calculus is different. It’s not that different on the field, but it’s the off-field numbers that become more salient, namely the shockingly small number of qualified starting QBs and the exorbitant cap hits the good (and some not-so-good) ones command. In the NFL, repeatedly running your QB may be good X’s and O’s, but it’s bad economics, as losing your franchise QB to injury in exchange for an extra first down is one of the surest ways to lose your coaching job.

Kelly seems to have sensed this. At Oregon he said he wanted “a quarterback who can run and not a running back who can throw”; in the NFL, Kelly seems to have gone out of his way to start immobile QBs, drafting Matt Barkley, signing Mark Sanchez (twice!), and trading for Sam Bradford. Kelly even reportedly refused to offer a tryout to then-free agent (and current Buffalo Bills starter) Tyrod Taylor, who ran for over 2,100 yards at Virginia Tech.

And in San Francisco, Colin Kaepernick — at one point the most dangerous dual-threat QB the NFL had ever seen — has been limited this offseason by a variety of injuries. The QB competition between him and Blaine Gabbert never blossomed, with Kelly naming Gabbert his starter after the preseason finale.

This isn’t to say Kelly should ask his NFL QBs to tote the ball 15 times a game — the read-option is best used in the NFL to complement a team’s base offense like draws and screen passes — but if Kelly wants to de-emphasize the read-option, then his offense must evolve to counterbalance the loss of a potent tactic.

Instead, Kelly’s answer has been to simply run plays that look like read-options, but without any reads or options. This has not gone well. Defenders who used to stand and watch the QB as the running back ran free now immediately collapse toward the runner to stuff the play.

Kelly once said that the shotgun inside zone “is not a great play if the quarterback hands off to the running back and everyone in the stadium knows who has the ball.” He was right, and his NFL offense is now proof.


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The predictability of Kelly’s offense has gone beyond the defense knowing who would get the ball, as defenders frequently now know which play is coming. Kelly, who has long relied on his tempo and the threat of the QB run to keep defenses honest, has done little to hide his offense’s tendencies. Watch Philadelphia’s remarkable 70-yard, four-play (all runs), touchdown drive from 2014, which took a grand total of one minute and 20 seconds off the clock.

(Click link and scroll down to watch videos)

A great drive, but the alignment of the tight end and running back gives away the play: If the tight end and running back lined up on opposite sides of the line, Kelly’s team ran a sweep toward the tight end; if they lined up on the same side, it was an inside zone away from the tight end.

This giveaway hasn’t always been in Kelly’s offense, but as he phased out read-options he increasingly kept the tight end backside to block the defensive end on inside zone plays. Defensive coaches with experience against spread offenses will tell you that the tight end often gives away the play, and that has certainly become true for Kelly’s offense.

The tide truly turned on Kelly’s offense in the Eagles’s 24–14 loss to the Seattle Seahawks in 2014, just one week after Philadelphia’s Thanksgiving Day win over the Cowboys. Seattle stuffed the Eagles offense, holding them to 139 total yards, and after the game Seahawks players were not shy about telling the media they knew what to expect.

“We knew what plays were coming,” Seahawks linebacker Bobby Wagner said after the game. “Their offense is kind of predictable. They have a lot of plays where they can only run one way.”

This wasn’t an isolated incident. After losing to the Cowboys early in the 2015 season — a game in which the Eagles managed only 7 rushing yards — Eagles receiver Josh Huff said Dallas’s players were calling out Kelly’s plays before the snap.

Another example came in Week 1 of 2015, as the Atlanta Falcons repeatedly checked into defenses designed to stop whichever play Kelly called. Whenever he called an inside zone — again, with the running back and tight end aligned to the same side — the Falcons, in turn, checked to a defensive stunt designed to blow up that specific play.

(Click link and scroll down to watch videos)

Philadelphia’s opponents seemed to know what was coming throughout 2015, even when he tried to mix in other plays. For example, as long as he’s been in the NFL, whenever Kelly’s opponents have geared up to stop his inside zone play, he has typically gone to his counterpunch, a sweep play in which the guard and center both pull to lead the way. But, tipped off by the alignment of the running back and the tight end, defenses were ready for that, too.

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It’s one thing for a team to miss a block or for the play caller to guess wrong, but these are abysmal, totally hopeless plays rarely seen in the NFL. Yet Kelly repeatedly deflected criticism that his offense had become predictable by saying that the issue came down to only one thing: “We need to execute.”

Execution was certainly also an issue for Kelly’s offense — what wasn’t? — but it didn’t arise in a vacuum. Kelly’s 2015 opponents were unafraid of his QBs as run threats and could accurately guess his play calls; it’s no surprise they were also able to exploit errors in his team’s execution.

“You cannot just fool defenses with tempo,” University of Kentucky offensive line coach John Schlarman said at a coaching clinic, summing up the experience of middling up-tempo spread offenses at every level of football. “There is a difference in a fast playing team playing crisp and a fast playing team playing sloppy.”


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Strangely, the predictability and unoriginality of Kelly’s offense is a recent phenomenon. Kelly routinely introduced new wrinkles at Oregon, and, most impressively, he dramatically shifted his offense midway through his first season in Philadelphia. After a 15–7 loss to the Giants in 2013 — a game in which the Eagles mustered a mere 200 total yards and which dropped the Eagles to a disappointing 3–5 record — Kelly marched into the locker room and delivered a message:

“I’ll never forget this in all my years in the NFL,” former Eagles quarterback Michael Vick recalled last year. “He said, ‘We will never look that way on offense the way we looked today, ever again.’”

And, at least for the rest of that 2013 season, Chip was right. The very next week, Kelly’s team bombed the Raiders with 49 points, while QB Nick Foles tied an NFL record with seven touchdown passes. And the offense was off to the races, smashing team records and finishing at or near the top of every major offensive category en route to a 7–1 record to close the season.

Kelly did it by adapting, as he increasingly folded in NFL passing concepts brought by his assistants, particularly Pat Shurmur, and found new ways to run the ball from under center. Kelly had created a blend of shotgun spread and pro-style offenses that looked like the future.

Then … nothing. Kelly’s 2015 Eagles offense was essentially unchanged from 2013 (and the 49ers offense this preseason looked identical as well), and what two or three years prior was fresh is now stale and easily defended. If anything, Kelly’s later offenses were more simplistic than his earlier ones, as the creative motions and formations that Kelly once used so well largely vanished.

And it’s not only the running game — Kelly’s pass game has been in stasis since 2013 as well. Though Kelly’s teams have always been run-first affairs — at Oregon he frequently admitted that “we run the ball better than we throw the ball” — to win in the NFL you must be able to throw when the other team gears up to stop the run.

And, despite showing the flexibility to experiment in 2013, there has been zero evolution in Kelly’s passing offense since, and, like Kelly’s running game, most defensive coaches can identify what pass play is coming based on how his players align.

One of the most effective plays for Kelly’s offense in 2013 was his “mesh” concept, in which two receivers run quick crossing routes — designed to pick off defenders chasing them — while another receiver curls over the middle and the running back runs a “wheel” route up the sideline. It’s a great play … except when the defense knows it’s coming, something that happened far too often last season.

It’s impossible to win in the NFL if the defense knows the play beforehand. But for Kelly, the problem is amplified because of his tempo: If you stop Kelly’s offense, you also stop his team. While Kelly’s Eagles teams went 24–8 when they rushed for more than 100 yards, they were just 2–13 when they failed to hit the century mark, including 0–7 in 2015. (Kelly’s Oregon teams went 0–3 when rushing for fewer than 100 yards, versus 46–4 when they rushed for more than 100.)

In part this is because his passing game cannot carry the load (the 2015 Eagles were fifth worst in the NFL on traditional dropback passes at 5.5 yards per pass), but also because if Kelly’s offense can’t run the ball, his defenses are stuck on the field.

“Chip Kelly is a friend, but I could not run the offense he runs,” Stanford head coach David Shaw said this summer at a coaching clinic. “If you run an up-tempo offense, you better be good at staying on the field. If you cannot get first downs, your defense will play the entire game.”

Indeed, the 2015 Eagles defense defended an incredible 1,148 plays, while the team that defended the fewest, the Seahawks, played just 947 snaps. At an NFL average of around 65 plays a game, Kelly’s defense effectively played three more games than Seattle’s.


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Albert Einstein once advised his students to “make everything as simple as possible, but no simpler,” and Kelly’s offense, increasingly unable to benefit from either tempo or QB runs, is simply, well, too simple. But he doesn’t need to change his core philosophy and suddenly start using a 700-page playbook. Rather than add a bunch of new schemes, Kelly could better protect the plays he currently runs, by mixing in additional formations, motions, and shifts with his tempo to keep defenses off balance.

ill Belichick once spoke glowingly about Hall of Fame coach Joe Gibbs’s Washington teams that were, like Kelly’s, built around one-back formations and an elegantly simple running game. “Honestly, they [Gibbs’s Washington teams] only had three plays, running plays,” Belichick explained. “But they had a million different ways to run them: every formation, personnel group, motion, shifting.

And it was hard to recognize because it was always different every week. … It’s unbelievable the amount of success they had running, really, running the inside zone, running the outside zone and running the counter [trey]. They won a lot of games doing that.” A little variety would go a long way to helping Kelly’s offense get back on track.

But the question is whether or not Kelly is ready to evolve. As the new coach of the San Francisco 49ers, the man who was at one time football’s leading innovator seeks redemption in the heart of Silicon Valley, America’s current cradle of disruptive innovation, a fitting landing spot given that it appears Kelly is seemingly hurtling toward being the next victim of the “Innovator’s Curse.”

The first idea of the curse is that innovations that can’t be protected frequently don’t benefit the innovator, an issue for Kelly given that one can’t patent football play, and any play that works one week is sure to be used across the league by the next.

Indeed, NFL coaches as diverse as Hue Jackson, Pete Carroll, Mike McCarthy, Mike McCoy, Bill O’Brien, Adam Gase, and even Belichick have co-opted Kelly’s ideas, and Kelly’s former quarterbacks coach, current Raiders offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave, said frankly that “the majority of what we’re doing [on offense] is Chip Kelly stuff.” The history of football is in many ways the history of men who watched others win with their ideas.

But the second idea behind the Innovator’s Curse is that, having once innovated, it’s increasingly difficult for the innovator to continue innovating. To use Silicon Valley examples, there are countless IBMs, Xeroxes, and Yahoos: one-time disruptors whose cultures and ideas ossified and who eventually became the disrupted.

If Kelly fails to innovate and evolve, he’ll just be yet another in a long line of football coaches, once considered cutting edge, who themselves were disrupted. But there is some reason for hope. Kelly is a smart coach in a sport where those are in short supply, and, in his first press conference as 49ers head coach, he hinted at introspection when he said he was performing an “autopsy” on what exactly went wrong during his Eagles tenure.

But Kelly’s actions since — from his uninspired assistant-coaching hires to his team’s play this preseason — showed nothing that would indicate anything except more of the same, and just Thursday Kelly said the only thing he’s done differently since his time in Philadelphia is “put a lot more sunscreen on.”

If Kelly 2.0 fails in San Francisco, it will be a shame for those of us who continue to admire what he did to push the game of football forward, but it certainly won’t be a surprise.
 

Zero

Pro Bowler
Joined
Feb 5, 2013
Messages
1,523
Balke Draft History 2010-2014

http://www.49ers.com/news/blog/arti...Position/5a7fd895-e08b-46a8-9e8d-9101c0ce7631


49ers GM Trent Baalke Draft History by Position

Posted Apr 29, 2015

Joe FannTeam Reporter49ers.com@Joe_Fann



Wednesday's Niners Daily takes an in-depth look at where the team's general manager has used his 48 draft selections since 2010.


San Francisco 49ers general manager Trent Baalke is set to command the team’s draft war room for the sixth time when the 2015 NFL Draft begins this Thursday. Baalke’s reign over draft day began in 2010, when he served as the 49ers vice president of player personnel and made draft decisions in the absence of former GM Scott McCloughan.


Baalke gained the title of general manager in 2011 and has continued to find success in the draft. He has a reputation for being active in terms of trading up and down throughout the seven rounds. The GM has completed 32 trades during his tenure with 30 of them including draft picks.

The wheeling and dealing has resulted in 48 total selections made from 2010-14 with nine more coming this weekend.

Here’s a breakdown by position and round taken for each of the 48.





Red – Denotes a player with at least one Pro Bowl Selection

BOLD – Denotes a player still on the roster


OFFENSE


Quarterback (2 picks):


First Round

Second Round

Third Round

Fourth Round

Fifth Round

Sixth Round

Seventh Round

  • B.J. Daniels – South Florida – 237th overall (2013)
Offensive Line (9 Picks):


First Round

  • Anthony Davis – Rutgers – 11th overall (2010)
  • Mike Iupati Idaho 17th overall (2010)
Second Round

Third Round

Fourth Round

Fifth Round

Sixth Round

  • Jason Slowey – Western Oregon – 199th overall (2012)
Seventh Round

  • Mike Person – Montana State – 239th overall (2011)
  • Carter Bykowski – Iowa State – 246th overall (2013)
Running Back (7 Picks):


First Round

Second Round

  • LaMichael James – Oregon – 61st overall (2012)
  • Carlos Hyde – Ohio State – 57th overall (2014)
Third Round

Fourth Round

  • Kendall Hunter – Oklahoma State – 115th Overall (2011)
  • Marcus Lattimore – South Carolina – 131st Overall (2013)
Fifth Round

Sixth Round

  • Anthony Dixon – Mississippi State – 173rd overall (2010)
Seventh Round

  • Bruce Miller (FB) – Central Florida – 211th overall (2011)
  • Trey Millard (FB) – Oklahoma – 245th overall (2014)
Wide Receiver (5 Picks):


First Round

  • A.J. Jenkins – Illinois – 30th overall (2012)
Second Round

Third Round

Fourth Round

Fifth Round

Sixth Round

  • Kyle Williams – Arizona State – 206th overall (2010)
  • Ronald Johnson – USC – 182nd overall (2011)
Seventh Round


Tight End (2 Picks):


First Round

Second Round

Third Round

Fourth Round

Fifth Round

Sixth Round

  • Nate Byham – Pittsburgh – 182nd overall (2010)
Seventh Round


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VIEW GALLERY | 38 Photos
Every 49ers First-round Draft Pick since 1980


DEFENSE


Defensive Line (5 Picks):


First Round

Second Round

Third Round

Fourth Round

Fifth Round

Sixth Round

Seventh Round

  • Cam Johnson – Virginia – 237th overall (2012)
  • Kaleb Ramsey – Boston College – 243rd overall (2014)
Linebacker (6 Picks):


First Round

Second Round

Third Round

  • NaVorro Bowman Penn State – 91st overall (2010)
  • Corey Lemonier – Auburn – 88th overall (2013)
  • Chris Borland – Wisconsin – 77th Overall (2014)
Fourth Round

Fifth Round

  • Darius Fleming – Notre Dame – 165th overall (2012)
Sixth Round

  • Nick Moody – Florida State – 180th overall (2013)
Seventh Round


Cornerback (7 Picks):


First Round

Second Round

Third Round

  • Chris Culliver – South Carolina – 80th overall (2011)
Fourth Round

Fifth Round

Sixth Round

Seventh Round

  • Phillip Adams – South Carolina State – 224th overall (2010)
  • Curtis Holcomb – Florida A&M – 250th overall (2011)
  • Marcus Cooper – Rutgers – 252nd overall (2013)
Safety (5 Picks):


First Round

  • Eric Reid LSU – 18th overall (2013)
  • Jimmie Ward – Northern Illinois – 30th overall (2014)
Second Round

  • Taylor Mays – USC – 49th overall (2010)
Third Round

Fourth Round

Fifth Round

Sixth Round

  • Colin Jones – TCU – 190th overall (2011)
  • Trenton Robinson – Michigan State – 180th overall (2012)
Seventh Round


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VIEW GALLERY | 26 Photos
Top Prospects Attending the NFL Draft



BREAKDOWN


Total Picks: 48

Still on the Roster: 26 (54.2 %)

Pro Bowlers: 3

Most Selected Position: Offensive Line (9)


FUN FACTS


  • The 49ers haven’t selected a specialist (kicker or punter) since taking Andy Leein the sixth round of the 2004 draft. The last kicker taken by San Francisco was when the team spent a fourth-round pick in 2002 on Jeff Chandler.
  • Since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970, the 49ers have drafted 14 players from Notre Dame and USC, tied for the most of any college program.
  • In that same time frame, San Francisco has drafted more linebackers (72) than any other position (69 offensive lineman rank second).
  • Numerous mock drafts have slotted a cornerback going to the 49ers at pick 15 in the first round this Thursday: Michigan State’s Tre Waynes, Washington’s Marcus Peters and Connecticut’s Byron Jones to name a few. Baalke is yet to draft a cornerback in the first two rounds (Chris Culliver in the third round of the 2011 draft is the earliest corner selected).
  • Baalke has also never spent a first or second round pick on a linebacker.
  • The 49ers GM completed 10 trades in the year 2013 alone.
 

Jacobarch

Hall of Fame
Joined
Mar 28, 2016
Messages
4,936
Name
Jake
What if they beat us again at the end of the season? Does this mean we're worse than they are?
 

raised_fisT

Hall of Fame
Joined
Oct 3, 2011
Messages
3,502
My 2 buddies are whiner fans. I will be absolutely passed if their last 3 wins are against the Rams. I already had to deal with their comments and the humiliation on opening week.... I don't know if I can do it a second time.... On Xmas eve... Ugh.
 

Mikey Ram

Hall of Fame
Joined
Oct 20, 2014
Messages
3,398
Name
Mike
I hope the Rams can help to keep this crap team the cherry on top of a compost pile, but I'm hard pressed to say I'm really filled with optimism...They better beat them or Stan might want to rethink spending all that money on his expensive erector set project...