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There are far too many charts to post so you'll have to click the appropriate links to get all the information.
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https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/2016-adjusted-games-lost-unit
2016 Adjusted Games Lost by Unit
by Scott Kacsmar
In the first part of this year's adjusted games lost (AGL) study, we looked at team results and found that the Bears had the highest AGL total in our database going back to 2000. By looking at each unit, we can get a more granular look at where teams were impacted the most by injuries.
For those unfamiliar with this metric, with AGL we are able to quantify how much teams were affected by injuries based on two principles: (1) Injuries to starters, injury replacements, and important situational reserves matter more than injuries to benchwarmers; and (2) Injured players who do take the field are usually playing with reduced ability.
Which is why AGL is based not strictly on whether the player is active for the game or not, but instead is based on the player's listed status that week (IR/PUP, out, doubtful, questionable, or probable).
Team/ OFF AGL/ Rk
Rams/ 7.7/ 1
Then we have the case of the Rams. The healthiest offense in the league was also the worst offense in the league according to DVOA. While our next study on snap-weighted age will likely show that the Rams were one of the youngest offenses in 2016, the results were just not good no matter how much youth, perceived talent, and health existed in Los Angeles last year. Jeff Fisher is gone, but rookie head coach Sean McVay will have his work cut out for him.
Kansas City and Los Angeles had the best tight end health, though football fans can actually name the tight end for the Chiefs. His name is Travis Kelce, and he had a really fine year (first in DYAR). Lance Kendricks finished 42nd in DYAR for the Rams, and rookie teammate Tyler Higbee was dead last at the position (46th).
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/nfl-head-coaches-adjusted-games-lost
NFL Head Coaches: Adjusted Games Lost
by Scott Kacsmar
Last week, we posted our annual study of adjusted games lost (AGL), which is Football Outsiders' metric for the impact of injuries on a team during the regular season. None of the five teams that accumulated at least 100 AGL made the playoffs in 2016.
We also made note of how Mike McCoy, who was fired after four seasons as San Diego's head coach, had AGL ranks of 28th, 31st, 26th, and 31st during his tenure. Any coach would find his job that much more difficult to deal with when there are that many injuries to starters and key reserves on a yearly basis.
This led us to wondering which coaches have benefitted from generally healthy seasons, and which coaches were dealt a tough hand like McCoy had in San Diego. That data is compiled below, and as it turns out, McCoy has had the worst injury luck of the 70 coaches since 2002 with at least three seasons of experience.
McCoy's teams averaged the most AGL (104.8), the worst average AGL rank (29.0), and the worst average z-score (minus-1.3) in AGL. So it has been an exceptionally bad run of injuries for the Chargers since 2013.
This is not to say that AGL alone is a great indicator of a team's win-loss record. We have found the correlation between AGL and wins to only be in the 0.2 to 0.3 range. However, when we chart the last 15 years of AGL rankings vs. winning percentage, there is an obvious disadvantage to having a banged-up squad.
Twelve of the 15 teams to finish first in AGL (the healthiest teams each season) won at least eight games. Only the 2016 Rams (4-12) were worse than 6-10, and we detailed last week how they had the healthiest offense, but the worst performance, as coaching and talent still outweigh health on the importance scale.
AGL by Head Coach (2002-2016)
Jeff Fisher had the healthiest teams on average, ranked 11th overall in z-score. Yet only four of those 28 coaches had a worse winning percentage than Fisher's .484. Fisher only made the playoffs four times in his final 14 seasons, and he can't blame his failures on his team's health.
**************************************************************************************
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/2016-adjusted-games-lost-unit
2016 Adjusted Games Lost by Unit
by Scott Kacsmar
In the first part of this year's adjusted games lost (AGL) study, we looked at team results and found that the Bears had the highest AGL total in our database going back to 2000. By looking at each unit, we can get a more granular look at where teams were impacted the most by injuries.
For those unfamiliar with this metric, with AGL we are able to quantify how much teams were affected by injuries based on two principles: (1) Injuries to starters, injury replacements, and important situational reserves matter more than injuries to benchwarmers; and (2) Injured players who do take the field are usually playing with reduced ability.
Which is why AGL is based not strictly on whether the player is active for the game or not, but instead is based on the player's listed status that week (IR/PUP, out, doubtful, questionable, or probable).
Team/ OFF AGL/ Rk
Rams/ 7.7/ 1
Then we have the case of the Rams. The healthiest offense in the league was also the worst offense in the league according to DVOA. While our next study on snap-weighted age will likely show that the Rams were one of the youngest offenses in 2016, the results were just not good no matter how much youth, perceived talent, and health existed in Los Angeles last year. Jeff Fisher is gone, but rookie head coach Sean McVay will have his work cut out for him.
Kansas City and Los Angeles had the best tight end health, though football fans can actually name the tight end for the Chiefs. His name is Travis Kelce, and he had a really fine year (first in DYAR). Lance Kendricks finished 42nd in DYAR for the Rams, and rookie teammate Tyler Higbee was dead last at the position (46th).
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/nfl-head-coaches-adjusted-games-lost
NFL Head Coaches: Adjusted Games Lost
by Scott Kacsmar
Last week, we posted our annual study of adjusted games lost (AGL), which is Football Outsiders' metric for the impact of injuries on a team during the regular season. None of the five teams that accumulated at least 100 AGL made the playoffs in 2016.
We also made note of how Mike McCoy, who was fired after four seasons as San Diego's head coach, had AGL ranks of 28th, 31st, 26th, and 31st during his tenure. Any coach would find his job that much more difficult to deal with when there are that many injuries to starters and key reserves on a yearly basis.
This led us to wondering which coaches have benefitted from generally healthy seasons, and which coaches were dealt a tough hand like McCoy had in San Diego. That data is compiled below, and as it turns out, McCoy has had the worst injury luck of the 70 coaches since 2002 with at least three seasons of experience.
McCoy's teams averaged the most AGL (104.8), the worst average AGL rank (29.0), and the worst average z-score (minus-1.3) in AGL. So it has been an exceptionally bad run of injuries for the Chargers since 2013.
This is not to say that AGL alone is a great indicator of a team's win-loss record. We have found the correlation between AGL and wins to only be in the 0.2 to 0.3 range. However, when we chart the last 15 years of AGL rankings vs. winning percentage, there is an obvious disadvantage to having a banged-up squad.
Twelve of the 15 teams to finish first in AGL (the healthiest teams each season) won at least eight games. Only the 2016 Rams (4-12) were worse than 6-10, and we detailed last week how they had the healthiest offense, but the worst performance, as coaching and talent still outweigh health on the importance scale.
AGL by Head Coach (2002-2016)
Jeff Fisher had the healthiest teams on average, ranked 11th overall in z-score. Yet only four of those 28 coaches had a worse winning percentage than Fisher's .484. Fisher only made the playoffs four times in his final 14 seasons, and he can't blame his failures on his team's health.
