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http://www.ocregister.com/articles/rams-710437-gurley-running.html
When the Rams opted to take a chance on a running back with the 10th pick of last year’s NFL draft, it was seen as a significant risk. And not just because that particular running back had torn his ACL five months earlier.
The value of running backs in the modern, pass-happy NFL had never been lower. Since Adrian Peterson was selected with the No. 7 pick in 2007, the list of running backs selected in the draft’s top 10 – Darren McFadden, C.J. Spiller and Trent Richardson – amounted to a collection of high-priced disappointments. Plus, none of those backs was recovering from major knee surgery.
The risk in selecting Todd Gurley was substantial. But the Rams’ reward – one season and one Rookie of the Year award later – might just change the trajectory of the franchise.
“We committed to Todd not knowing when he was going to play or be ready to play,” Rams coach Jeff Fisher said at the NFL scouting combine in February. “He exceeded our expectations as far as being able to compete on Sundays. What he did in a short period of time was extraordinary.”
Extraordinary may not be strong enough praise. In just 12 starts, Gurley finished third in the NFL in rushing, tied for fifth in rushing touchdowns, and earned a Pro Bowl selection in what amounted to one of the best rookie rushing campaigns in league history. Now, as the Rams settle in Los Angeles for Gurley’s second season, the organization is prepared to double down on the run game and its running back of the future.
But will that bet pay off again?
Conventional knowledge tells us that successful NFL offenses are almost exclusively built around quarterbacks. But the Rams, who had the league’s worst passing attack in 2015, have on several occasions this offseason downplayed that requirement, pointing instead to Gurley as the foundation of their offense’s future.
“He's a special talent,” Fisher said. “We're clearly going to build our offense around that position.”
“There’s not just one variable to win in this league,” General Manager Les Snead said.
Building around your most talented player isn’t exactly a revolutionary strategy. But to build one around one running back, after an NFL season in which only seven rushed for 1,000 yards – the fewest since 1991 – is probably not the safest avenue for an offense’s future, either.
Last season, just five NFL running backs accounted for greater than 25 percent of their team’s total offense – Peterson (33 percent), McFadden (27.4), Doug Martin (27.8), Devonta Freeman (28.6), and Gurley. In just 13 starts, Gurley accounted for nearly 34 percent of the Rams offense. No NFL team relied on its lead running back more.
The problem with that list: Of those teams, only Peterson’s Vikings made the playoffs. (Other run-heavy playoff teams, like the Seahawks, would’ve likely been included, if not for injury; Thomas Rawls accounted for 33.5 percent of Seattle’s offense in his six starts). And between Minnesota, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and St. Louis, none had a worse quarterback situation than the Rams.
In the four starts incumbent quarterback Case Keenum made with Gurley in the backfield, he handed off to his star rookie back an average of 20.25 times per game and threw, on average, 22 passes. With another offseason of preparation time, it’s safe to expect that Gurley will have an even larger role in the Rams’ offense. But with Keenum limited in his ability to stretch defenses, it’s fair to wonder whether that bigger role will make for a better season.
Thirty years ago, another transcendent young running back carried a similarly heavy load in Los Angeles. In three of his first four seasons with the Rams, Eric Dickerson accounted for more than 40 percent of the team’s total offense and led the NFL in rushing as the Rams shuffled through Vince Ferragamo, Dieter Brock and Jim Everett at quarterback. In all four of his seasons in Los Angeles, the Rams made the playoffs.
So could the Rams build something similar in their reintroduction to Los Angeles? Gurley certainly has the talent necessary to be the centerpiece of such an offense. From Week 4 through Week 7 last season, he became the first rookie in NFL history to rush for more than 125 yards in four straight games. The team went 3-1 in that stretch.
But the Rams lost five straight games after that, as the wheels fell off. Then-starting quarterback Nick Foles struggled. And as defenses stacked the box, Gurley stalled, too.
With a change at quarterback, Keenum steered the team to a 3-1 finish, and Gurley bounced back. As the Rams head into the offseason with a generational talent at running back and scant other offensive weapons, it’s those four games that the Rams appear to be betting their future on.
It’s a bet they can’t afford to lose
When the Rams opted to take a chance on a running back with the 10th pick of last year’s NFL draft, it was seen as a significant risk. And not just because that particular running back had torn his ACL five months earlier.
The value of running backs in the modern, pass-happy NFL had never been lower. Since Adrian Peterson was selected with the No. 7 pick in 2007, the list of running backs selected in the draft’s top 10 – Darren McFadden, C.J. Spiller and Trent Richardson – amounted to a collection of high-priced disappointments. Plus, none of those backs was recovering from major knee surgery.
The risk in selecting Todd Gurley was substantial. But the Rams’ reward – one season and one Rookie of the Year award later – might just change the trajectory of the franchise.
“We committed to Todd not knowing when he was going to play or be ready to play,” Rams coach Jeff Fisher said at the NFL scouting combine in February. “He exceeded our expectations as far as being able to compete on Sundays. What he did in a short period of time was extraordinary.”
Extraordinary may not be strong enough praise. In just 12 starts, Gurley finished third in the NFL in rushing, tied for fifth in rushing touchdowns, and earned a Pro Bowl selection in what amounted to one of the best rookie rushing campaigns in league history. Now, as the Rams settle in Los Angeles for Gurley’s second season, the organization is prepared to double down on the run game and its running back of the future.
But will that bet pay off again?
Conventional knowledge tells us that successful NFL offenses are almost exclusively built around quarterbacks. But the Rams, who had the league’s worst passing attack in 2015, have on several occasions this offseason downplayed that requirement, pointing instead to Gurley as the foundation of their offense’s future.
“He's a special talent,” Fisher said. “We're clearly going to build our offense around that position.”
“There’s not just one variable to win in this league,” General Manager Les Snead said.
Building around your most talented player isn’t exactly a revolutionary strategy. But to build one around one running back, after an NFL season in which only seven rushed for 1,000 yards – the fewest since 1991 – is probably not the safest avenue for an offense’s future, either.
Last season, just five NFL running backs accounted for greater than 25 percent of their team’s total offense – Peterson (33 percent), McFadden (27.4), Doug Martin (27.8), Devonta Freeman (28.6), and Gurley. In just 13 starts, Gurley accounted for nearly 34 percent of the Rams offense. No NFL team relied on its lead running back more.
The problem with that list: Of those teams, only Peterson’s Vikings made the playoffs. (Other run-heavy playoff teams, like the Seahawks, would’ve likely been included, if not for injury; Thomas Rawls accounted for 33.5 percent of Seattle’s offense in his six starts). And between Minnesota, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and St. Louis, none had a worse quarterback situation than the Rams.
In the four starts incumbent quarterback Case Keenum made with Gurley in the backfield, he handed off to his star rookie back an average of 20.25 times per game and threw, on average, 22 passes. With another offseason of preparation time, it’s safe to expect that Gurley will have an even larger role in the Rams’ offense. But with Keenum limited in his ability to stretch defenses, it’s fair to wonder whether that bigger role will make for a better season.
Thirty years ago, another transcendent young running back carried a similarly heavy load in Los Angeles. In three of his first four seasons with the Rams, Eric Dickerson accounted for more than 40 percent of the team’s total offense and led the NFL in rushing as the Rams shuffled through Vince Ferragamo, Dieter Brock and Jim Everett at quarterback. In all four of his seasons in Los Angeles, the Rams made the playoffs.
So could the Rams build something similar in their reintroduction to Los Angeles? Gurley certainly has the talent necessary to be the centerpiece of such an offense. From Week 4 through Week 7 last season, he became the first rookie in NFL history to rush for more than 125 yards in four straight games. The team went 3-1 in that stretch.
But the Rams lost five straight games after that, as the wheels fell off. Then-starting quarterback Nick Foles struggled. And as defenses stacked the box, Gurley stalled, too.
With a change at quarterback, Keenum steered the team to a 3-1 finish, and Gurley bounced back. As the Rams head into the offseason with a generational talent at running back and scant other offensive weapons, it’s those four games that the Rams appear to be betting their future on.
It’s a bet they can’t afford to lose
