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The Best Guess Draft
Forget the mock. Four weeks before the NFL draft commences in Chicago, no one can predict anything with certainty. But here's an—ahem—informed look at how the first 32 selections could go down, plus answers to your PAT questions
By Peter King
http://mmqb.si.com/2015/04/01/nfl-mock-draft-peter-king/4/
The MMQB's Peter King takes a look at the sanctions handed down to the Atlanta Falcons and Cleveland Browns and if the NFL gave an appropriate punishment for the crimes committed.
Let me tell you something about a “mock draft” a month before the “real draft.” It’s not very accurate. It would be more accurately called a “best guess draft.” That is all it is. Don’t let any of the geniuses, including a faux genius like me, tell you otherwise.
One of the real smart guys in the NFL was on his way home from the Florida State pro day Tuesday, around dinnertime, when I reached him on the phone. “Happy to help,” he said, “but I have no idea who anyone is taking. I’ve studied most of the players, but I don’t know which teams are taking them.”
I’m doing this now for a couple of reasons. One: I heard some things last week at the league meetings that I could either file away and let die; use as blind items in Monday Morning Quarterback; or put them to use trying to solve the jigsaw puzzle known as the draft four weeks out. Two: Fans love the draft. I could have topped my mailbag column today with an opinion about the Indiana law and what it will mean to the future of the NFL and NFL events in Indiana—but before we know the final disposition of said law, what good is that? I could have topped the column with other notes from around the league, but would any of those be as interesting as whatever I know or have heard about the draft? No.
So do not take this as anything but an informed opinion. That’s all it is.
This will be my last draft projection until the dominoes start to fall a couple of days before the first round. I’ll do one more the week of the draft (around April 28). On with the show.
1. TAMPA BAY
Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State.
Looked good with his 102-pass workout in Tallahassee on Tuesday, with 96 balls on target, but it might have been one of the more meaningless workouts in recent Pro Day history. If the Bucs—whose private eyes have interviewed more than 75 people from Winston’s past—don’t find any big problems with him, he’ll be the first pick April 30.
2. TENNESSEE
Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon.
I’m going mostly by the look in coach Ken Whisenhunt’s eyes when he talked about the pick last week at the league meetings. Pretty scientific, huh? Well, that plus his nominal starter is Zach Mettenberger. Plus Whisenhunt job will be on the line with another fourth-place finish in a bad division.
3. JACKSONVILLE
Dante Fowler, OLB, Florida.
The popular pick here is USC defensive tackle Leonard Williams, who might be the best player in the draft. But the Jags have 2014 star defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, and two other 300-pound linemen, Tyson Alualu and Jared Odrick. The need is a rusher. Fowler fits.
4. OAKLAND
Leonard Williams, DT, USC.
GM Reggie McKenzie waits for the phone to ring. He’ll trade during his pick, especially with Williams on the board. Interesting trade-up candidate: Cleveland, with the 12th and 19th and 43rd picks, and with a big need for a dominating three-technique pile-mover.
*5. ST. LOUIS
Kevin White, WR, West Virginia.
*Trade: In exchange for giving St. Louis the fifth pick, Washington gets the 10th, 72nd and 119th pick.
Washington GM Scot McCloughan badly wants to trade this pick, because his needs don’t match with the players on the board. The Rams don’t love anyone on the board here, but they can keep their second-round pick, trade their third-rounder and fourth-rounder, and still come out of this draft with premier players at wideout and running back, two need spots. Interesting if it happens: The two big receiver stars in recent Mountaineer history, White and Tavon Austin, would be reunited in Missouri.
6. NEW YORK JETS
Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama.
After quarterback to Tampa Bay, receiver to the Jets is the most logical pick in the draft. Now watch Mike Maccagnan take a corner.
7. CHICAGO
Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson.
Bears would love White or Cooper. New GM Ryan Pace might trade up for one. But John Fox loves rushers, and even after spending $39 million in free agency on Pernell McPhee, Beasley is the best value for the rush-starved Bears.
8. ATLANTA
Alvin “Bud” Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky.
Mark my words: Dupree’s getting picked higher than draftniks think. And if there’s one regret Atlanta GM Thomas Dimitroff has after last season, it’s that he didn’t go out and buy or draft a premier rusher last year. He won’t get fooled again.
9. NEW YORK GIANTS
Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa.
Pretty easy pick, though I have no idea if this is GM Jerry Reese’s man. G-Men need the line to be fortified, and Scherff is the best offensive lineman on everyone’s board. Don’t think too hard here, Jerry.
*10. WASHINGTON
Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri.
*Trade: In exchange for the No. 5 pick, St. Louis sends Washington the 10th, 72nd and 119th pick.
Good first move for McCloughan, if he can gather two more picks (or even one second-rounder) and pick up a pass-rusher in the process to replace Brian Orakpo.
11. MINNESOTA
Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State.
Coach Mike Zimmer is not telegraphing his wants too much; he was at UConn cornerback Byron Jones’ workout Tuesday in Storrs, Conn. Jones would be a fallback if Waynes gets taken in the first 10 picks of the draft.
12. CLEVELAND
D.J. Humphries, OT/OG, Florida.
It’s a meat-and-potatoes pick for GM Ray Farmer, taking the second-best tackle prospect on many boards.
13. NEW ORLEANS
Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska.
Saints will have this sign on their draft table in Chicago on April 30: MAKE US AN OFFER. WE WANT MORE PICKS. LOTS OF THEM. Failing a big offer with some good cornerbacks and rushers on the board, and satisfied that Gregory does not have a case of the munchies, GM Mickey Loomis makes defensive coordinator Rob Ryan a happy man.
14. MIAMI
DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville.
An obvious need. Dolphins GM Dennis Hickey prays Parker will be on the board at 14.
15. SAN FRANCISCO
Marcus Peters, CB, Washington.
Had his share of off-field problems in Seattle, but the Niners are used to dealing with those. Chris Culliver-for-Peters is a very good off-season deal for new coach Jim Tomsula.
16. HOUSTON
Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest.
Texans spent big on Kareem Jackson last month at corner, and they certainly could go receiver here. Tough call. Johnson is very pro-ready.
17. SAN DIEGO
Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford.
GM Tom Telesco could go lots of ways here. Easy to pick a receiver, a corner, a rusher, or the best back in the draft. But Telesco learned about fortifying lines from Bill Polian. Just a hunch he’ll do that to give Philip Rivers a fighting chance in 2015, grabbing a player ready to play early from a pro-style scheme.
18. KANSAS CITY
Breshad Perriman, WR, Central Florida.
Wouldn’t be shocked to see him go as high as 13 or 14, especially after running two sub-4.3 forties at his pro day recently. He’s getting tons of love in the scouting community. Chiefs will hope he’s not Stephen Hill.
19. CLEVELAND
Danny Shelton, NT, Washington.
He’s getting dinged by a few scouts for his inconsistency recently, and he’s likely just a two-down player. But at his peak, he could be a Vince Wilfork, and the Browns need some defensive beef.
Jaelen Strong (Ralph Freso/Getty Images)Jaelen Strong (Ralph Freso/Getty Images)
20. PHILADELPHIA
Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State.
Jordan Matthews: 6-3, 212. Jaelen Strong: 6-2 ½, 219. Chip Kelly then fills in the receiver slots with some Riley Coopers and Miles Austins.
21. CINCINNATI
Landon Collins, SS, Alabama.
Have thought all along Cincinnati would take the best offensive lineman here, and it’s certainly possible. But at the combine, Bengal folk were very high on Collins.
22. PITTSBURGH
Jalen Collins, CB, LSU.
I guess the Steelers could take something other than a corner in the first round. But it wouldn’t be a good pick.
23. DETROIT
Cameron Erving, C, Florida State.
“Second-best offensive lineman in the draft, to Scherff,” was the word in Phoenix from one GM. He’ll be a steal for someone if he gets past 20. Lions had awful center play last year, then cut Dominic Raiola. Big need position for Detroit.
24. ARIZONA
Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia.
Problems with this pick: Gurley is only four months out from knee reconstruction; it’s likely he won’t be at full strength to start the 2015 season … The Cards like Ameer Abdullah of Nebraska, and know they can get him down the line … The Cards might be able to get—might—Adrian Peterson at a discount if the Vikings get desperate. So I wouldn’t write this pick with a pen.
25. CAROLINA
Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami.
The Panthers have a few needs, but the one at tackle cries out for instant fix.
26. BALTIMORE
Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin.
I have never been one for common wisdom when it comes to predicting the Ravens. Nor has Ozzie Newsome, who must be focusing on corners and receivers. But Gordon dropping this far, even with found money Justin Forsett in the fold, cannot be ignored.
27. DALLAS
Jordan Phillips, NT, Oklahoma.
Cowboys have needs all over the front seven, and Phillips is the best big body available.
28. DENVER
La’el Collins, OT, LSU.
Good value for the spot, but I think GM John Elway would have preferred the value and need pick of Cameron Erving here. Could Elway be persuaded to trade ahead of Detroit for Erving?
*29. ST. LOUIS
T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh.
*Trade: In exchange for the 29th pick, Indianapolis gets the 41st and 72nd picks.
The Rams have done their share of compiling picks during the Les Snead regime. Now it’s time to spend one to address a very leaky line, especially after Jake Long was released and St. Louis let Joe Barksdale test the market (he hasn’t left yet, but he could). Teams will be sniffing around the end of the first round for the remnants of the tackle and receiver markets.
30. GREEN BAY
Denzel Perryman, MLB/ILB, Miami (Fla.)
Could the Packers get their desperately needed plugger linebacker in the second round? To be sure. They might even be able to get the 5-11, 236-pound Perryman there. But the Pack loves Perryman, and Ted Thompson’s never been afraid to take a shot on a player others don’t value as highly.
*31. CHICAGO
Byron Jones, CB, UConn.
*Trade: In exchange for the 31st pick, New Orleans gets the 39th, 106th and 192nd picks.
Shot in the dark. The clues: Bears were 30th in the NFL against the pass last year; Bear corners are ancient; new GM Ryan Pace comes from Mickey Loomis’ classroom in New Orleans. And Pace knows the Patriots love UConn players, and had a contingent Tuesday at Husky Pro Day, where Jones ran 4.38 and 4.44.
32. NEW ENGLAND
Eddie Goldman, NT, Florida State.
So long, Vince. Hello, Eddie.
Forget the mock. Four weeks before the NFL draft commences in Chicago, no one can predict anything with certainty. But here's an—ahem—informed look at how the first 32 selections could go down, plus answers to your PAT questions
By Peter King
http://mmqb.si.com/2015/04/01/nfl-mock-draft-peter-king/4/
The MMQB's Peter King takes a look at the sanctions handed down to the Atlanta Falcons and Cleveland Browns and if the NFL gave an appropriate punishment for the crimes committed.
Let me tell you something about a “mock draft” a month before the “real draft.” It’s not very accurate. It would be more accurately called a “best guess draft.” That is all it is. Don’t let any of the geniuses, including a faux genius like me, tell you otherwise.
One of the real smart guys in the NFL was on his way home from the Florida State pro day Tuesday, around dinnertime, when I reached him on the phone. “Happy to help,” he said, “but I have no idea who anyone is taking. I’ve studied most of the players, but I don’t know which teams are taking them.”
I’m doing this now for a couple of reasons. One: I heard some things last week at the league meetings that I could either file away and let die; use as blind items in Monday Morning Quarterback; or put them to use trying to solve the jigsaw puzzle known as the draft four weeks out. Two: Fans love the draft. I could have topped my mailbag column today with an opinion about the Indiana law and what it will mean to the future of the NFL and NFL events in Indiana—but before we know the final disposition of said law, what good is that? I could have topped the column with other notes from around the league, but would any of those be as interesting as whatever I know or have heard about the draft? No.
So do not take this as anything but an informed opinion. That’s all it is.
This will be my last draft projection until the dominoes start to fall a couple of days before the first round. I’ll do one more the week of the draft (around April 28). On with the show.
1. TAMPA BAY
Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State.
Looked good with his 102-pass workout in Tallahassee on Tuesday, with 96 balls on target, but it might have been one of the more meaningless workouts in recent Pro Day history. If the Bucs—whose private eyes have interviewed more than 75 people from Winston’s past—don’t find any big problems with him, he’ll be the first pick April 30.
2. TENNESSEE
Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon.
I’m going mostly by the look in coach Ken Whisenhunt’s eyes when he talked about the pick last week at the league meetings. Pretty scientific, huh? Well, that plus his nominal starter is Zach Mettenberger. Plus Whisenhunt job will be on the line with another fourth-place finish in a bad division.
3. JACKSONVILLE
Dante Fowler, OLB, Florida.
The popular pick here is USC defensive tackle Leonard Williams, who might be the best player in the draft. But the Jags have 2014 star defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, and two other 300-pound linemen, Tyson Alualu and Jared Odrick. The need is a rusher. Fowler fits.
4. OAKLAND
Leonard Williams, DT, USC.
GM Reggie McKenzie waits for the phone to ring. He’ll trade during his pick, especially with Williams on the board. Interesting trade-up candidate: Cleveland, with the 12th and 19th and 43rd picks, and with a big need for a dominating three-technique pile-mover.
*5. ST. LOUIS
Kevin White, WR, West Virginia.
*Trade: In exchange for giving St. Louis the fifth pick, Washington gets the 10th, 72nd and 119th pick.
Washington GM Scot McCloughan badly wants to trade this pick, because his needs don’t match with the players on the board. The Rams don’t love anyone on the board here, but they can keep their second-round pick, trade their third-rounder and fourth-rounder, and still come out of this draft with premier players at wideout and running back, two need spots. Interesting if it happens: The two big receiver stars in recent Mountaineer history, White and Tavon Austin, would be reunited in Missouri.
6. NEW YORK JETS
Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama.
After quarterback to Tampa Bay, receiver to the Jets is the most logical pick in the draft. Now watch Mike Maccagnan take a corner.
7. CHICAGO
Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson.
Bears would love White or Cooper. New GM Ryan Pace might trade up for one. But John Fox loves rushers, and even after spending $39 million in free agency on Pernell McPhee, Beasley is the best value for the rush-starved Bears.
8. ATLANTA
Alvin “Bud” Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky.
Mark my words: Dupree’s getting picked higher than draftniks think. And if there’s one regret Atlanta GM Thomas Dimitroff has after last season, it’s that he didn’t go out and buy or draft a premier rusher last year. He won’t get fooled again.
9. NEW YORK GIANTS
Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa.
Pretty easy pick, though I have no idea if this is GM Jerry Reese’s man. G-Men need the line to be fortified, and Scherff is the best offensive lineman on everyone’s board. Don’t think too hard here, Jerry.
*10. WASHINGTON
Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri.
*Trade: In exchange for the No. 5 pick, St. Louis sends Washington the 10th, 72nd and 119th pick.
Good first move for McCloughan, if he can gather two more picks (or even one second-rounder) and pick up a pass-rusher in the process to replace Brian Orakpo.
11. MINNESOTA
Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State.
Coach Mike Zimmer is not telegraphing his wants too much; he was at UConn cornerback Byron Jones’ workout Tuesday in Storrs, Conn. Jones would be a fallback if Waynes gets taken in the first 10 picks of the draft.
12. CLEVELAND
D.J. Humphries, OT/OG, Florida.
It’s a meat-and-potatoes pick for GM Ray Farmer, taking the second-best tackle prospect on many boards.
13. NEW ORLEANS
Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska.
Saints will have this sign on their draft table in Chicago on April 30: MAKE US AN OFFER. WE WANT MORE PICKS. LOTS OF THEM. Failing a big offer with some good cornerbacks and rushers on the board, and satisfied that Gregory does not have a case of the munchies, GM Mickey Loomis makes defensive coordinator Rob Ryan a happy man.
14. MIAMI
DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville.
An obvious need. Dolphins GM Dennis Hickey prays Parker will be on the board at 14.
15. SAN FRANCISCO
Marcus Peters, CB, Washington.
Had his share of off-field problems in Seattle, but the Niners are used to dealing with those. Chris Culliver-for-Peters is a very good off-season deal for new coach Jim Tomsula.
16. HOUSTON
Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest.
Texans spent big on Kareem Jackson last month at corner, and they certainly could go receiver here. Tough call. Johnson is very pro-ready.
17. SAN DIEGO
Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford.
GM Tom Telesco could go lots of ways here. Easy to pick a receiver, a corner, a rusher, or the best back in the draft. But Telesco learned about fortifying lines from Bill Polian. Just a hunch he’ll do that to give Philip Rivers a fighting chance in 2015, grabbing a player ready to play early from a pro-style scheme.
18. KANSAS CITY
Breshad Perriman, WR, Central Florida.
Wouldn’t be shocked to see him go as high as 13 or 14, especially after running two sub-4.3 forties at his pro day recently. He’s getting tons of love in the scouting community. Chiefs will hope he’s not Stephen Hill.
19. CLEVELAND
Danny Shelton, NT, Washington.
He’s getting dinged by a few scouts for his inconsistency recently, and he’s likely just a two-down player. But at his peak, he could be a Vince Wilfork, and the Browns need some defensive beef.
Jaelen Strong (Ralph Freso/Getty Images)Jaelen Strong (Ralph Freso/Getty Images)
20. PHILADELPHIA
Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State.
Jordan Matthews: 6-3, 212. Jaelen Strong: 6-2 ½, 219. Chip Kelly then fills in the receiver slots with some Riley Coopers and Miles Austins.
21. CINCINNATI
Landon Collins, SS, Alabama.
Have thought all along Cincinnati would take the best offensive lineman here, and it’s certainly possible. But at the combine, Bengal folk were very high on Collins.
22. PITTSBURGH
Jalen Collins, CB, LSU.
I guess the Steelers could take something other than a corner in the first round. But it wouldn’t be a good pick.
23. DETROIT
Cameron Erving, C, Florida State.
“Second-best offensive lineman in the draft, to Scherff,” was the word in Phoenix from one GM. He’ll be a steal for someone if he gets past 20. Lions had awful center play last year, then cut Dominic Raiola. Big need position for Detroit.
24. ARIZONA
Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia.
Problems with this pick: Gurley is only four months out from knee reconstruction; it’s likely he won’t be at full strength to start the 2015 season … The Cards like Ameer Abdullah of Nebraska, and know they can get him down the line … The Cards might be able to get—might—Adrian Peterson at a discount if the Vikings get desperate. So I wouldn’t write this pick with a pen.
25. CAROLINA
Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami.
The Panthers have a few needs, but the one at tackle cries out for instant fix.
26. BALTIMORE
Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin.
I have never been one for common wisdom when it comes to predicting the Ravens. Nor has Ozzie Newsome, who must be focusing on corners and receivers. But Gordon dropping this far, even with found money Justin Forsett in the fold, cannot be ignored.
27. DALLAS
Jordan Phillips, NT, Oklahoma.
Cowboys have needs all over the front seven, and Phillips is the best big body available.
28. DENVER
La’el Collins, OT, LSU.
Good value for the spot, but I think GM John Elway would have preferred the value and need pick of Cameron Erving here. Could Elway be persuaded to trade ahead of Detroit for Erving?
*29. ST. LOUIS
T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh.
*Trade: In exchange for the 29th pick, Indianapolis gets the 41st and 72nd picks.
The Rams have done their share of compiling picks during the Les Snead regime. Now it’s time to spend one to address a very leaky line, especially after Jake Long was released and St. Louis let Joe Barksdale test the market (he hasn’t left yet, but he could). Teams will be sniffing around the end of the first round for the remnants of the tackle and receiver markets.
30. GREEN BAY
Denzel Perryman, MLB/ILB, Miami (Fla.)
Could the Packers get their desperately needed plugger linebacker in the second round? To be sure. They might even be able to get the 5-11, 236-pound Perryman there. But the Pack loves Perryman, and Ted Thompson’s never been afraid to take a shot on a player others don’t value as highly.
*31. CHICAGO
Byron Jones, CB, UConn.
*Trade: In exchange for the 31st pick, New Orleans gets the 39th, 106th and 192nd picks.
Shot in the dark. The clues: Bears were 30th in the NFL against the pass last year; Bear corners are ancient; new GM Ryan Pace comes from Mickey Loomis’ classroom in New Orleans. And Pace knows the Patriots love UConn players, and had a contingent Tuesday at Husky Pro Day, where Jones ran 4.38 and 4.44.
32. NEW ENGLAND
Eddie Goldman, NT, Florida State.
So long, Vince. Hello, Eddie.
