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Betting on NFL games...

Discussion in 'SPORTSBOOK' started by kurtisgod, Oct 8, 2015.

  1. kurtisgod

    UDFA
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    Anybody have recommendations as far as betting on games go? Certain strategies? Trends? I like all the information there is on the web available but 99% of the handicappers sites cost money.

    I did recently stumble across SportsLinesAnalytics.com though. They seem pretty legit. Always nice to have another opinion on stuff like this. They give you their betting line breakdowns based on their analytics and formulas for free luckily.

    I like vegasinsider.com also since they have a nice format for all the spreads across different casinos. Very easy to read and break down how the lines have shifted. Free as well.

    Oddsshark.com is useful since they breakdown the % of each team the gamblers have bet on. With that info, you can do as you please.

    Is there any other FREE sites that any of you would recommend? Have any bad experiences with some paid ones? I had been thinking about pulling the trigger on one or two but haven't really gotten much feedback on them. The free ones like sportslinesanalytics are nice and simple. Some more resources like that would be helpful if you all have any suggestions. Thanks
     
  2. RhodyRams

    well hung member
    SportsBook Bookie
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    Practice with fake money here to get it out of your system.

    Stay away from the bookies, Gambling with your paycheck is a bad habit to get into.
     
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  3. flv

    flv
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    SportsBook Bookie
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    Over the last 2 months i've spend a very considerable amount of time crunching NFL gambling data on the 2014 and 2015 seasons. The results of those 512 regular season games came as something of a surprise to me. I'll write a fuller report later in the year but for now he's a précis:

    1) Bet on marginal favourites to win games outright, not against the spread.

    Nothing comes close to that advice so there is no #2. I'll go from there to #3.

    3) Bet on favourites to win games outright, not against the spread, in the 1st 8 weeks of the season.
    4) Avoid betting on home teams, outright or spreads, in the last 8 weeks of the season, unless they are marginal favourites in which case back them to win games outright.
     
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  4. Mackeyser

    Seahawks are great...targets! Baahahaha
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    What does marginal mean?
     
  5. flv

    flv
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    SportsBook Bookie
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    A marginal favourite is a favourite that is considered to be slightly more likely to win than their opponent. In NFL terms a team favoured to win by 1½ points would a marginal favourite. In terms of outright betting such a favourite would likely be available at odds of 4/5 with the marginal underdog available at odds of 21/20.

    In the context of my analysis a marginal favourite was any team favoured to win by 2½ points or less.
     
  6. flv

    flv
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    SportsBook Bookie
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    There is a belief that home field advantage is greater later in the year. If this is true then home teams should be winning a higher proportion games later in the season. As always raw data is an indicator of what the situation is and it doesn't mean it will be repeated in the future. Other factors may strongly affect how often home teams win. Perhaps schedules are created with the intention of having closer games late in the year. However, here is the raw data for the last 3 seasons:

    2013 1st 8 weeks of the season:
    Games 120
    Home wins 74, (61.7%)
    Road wins 46, (38.3%)

    2013 Last 8 weeks of the season:
    Games 123
    Home wins 71½, (58.1%)
    Road wins 51½, (41.9%)
    ______________________________

    2014 1st 8 weeks of the season:
    Games 121
    Home wins 71½, (59.1%)
    Road wins 49½, (40.9%)

    2014 Last 8 weeks of the season:
    Games 122
    Home wins 66, (54.1%)
    Road wins 56, (45.9%)
    ______________________________

    2015 1st 8 weeks of the season:
    Games 119
    Home wins 68, (57.1%)
    Road wins 51, (42.9%)

    2015 Last 8 weeks of the season:
    Games 124
    Home wins 61, (49.2%)
    Road wins 63, (50.8%)
    ______________________________

    Some notes: This data is based on regular season games. There were 2 ties in the 768 games and they are counted as ½ wins for both home and road teams. I am not ignoring Week 9 of these seasons. It was done to compare 8 weeks with 8 weeks. The Week 9 data is shown below. You can add Week 9 to either side if you see fit.

    2013 Week 9, (13 games)
    Home wins 8
    Road wins 5

    2014 Week 9, (13 games)
    Home wins 8
    Road wins 5

    2015 Week 9, (13 games)
    Home wins 9
    Road wins 4
    ______________________________

    1st impressions suggest home field advantage is most important through the 1st 8, (or 9), weeks of the season. Later in the season the home teams generally still win more games than road teams but it is hard to conclude playing a higher percentage of home games later in the year is an advantage.
    ______________________________

    I'll deal with favourites and quantifying favouritism in a later post. The data i'm using for that is far more subjective and it used 2 very different sources which could, (but probably doesn't), have differences in favouritism of several points per game.
     
  7. DaveFan'51

    Old-Timer
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    And never bet with "scared money"! In other words If the bet scares you, BACK OFF!!
     
  8. flv

    flv
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    SportsBook Bookie
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    Just a 'For your information' post:

    Most top bookies offer -110 on an event with 2 teams that have an equal chance of winning. In British odds it would be 10/11 and in either case a successful $1000 bet would give you a return of $1909.09. If you bet in a casino or with a less generous bookie you'll normally get odds of -120 or -115 about those teams. In British odds it would be 5/6 and 20/23 respectively. Successful $1000 bets would see a returns of $1833.33 and $1869.56. Shopping around for the best odds can pay dividends.

    From the bookie's perspective at -110 he hopes to take a $1000 bet on each losing team for every $1000 bet on the winning team. If the bookie has gotten the odds right and the market does put equal amounts of money on each side of the bet then his profit margin is $90.91, (if he takes 2 X $1000 bets and pays out $1909.09 or for each 2 X $110 staked he'll pay out a $110 stake and $100 in winnings). That $90.91 equates to 4.54%. If there are more than 2 possible outcomes then the bookie will increase his profit margin because there's more chance of making a mistake about each of those outcomes. On a 4 outcome event such as each NFL Division winner the profit margin is likely to be about 7%. On a 16 outcome event such as the NFC Championship the profit margin is likely to be about 16%. The profit margin % can vary dramatically from event to event. For example an F1 race that might realistically only have 8 possible winners might be done to a 17% profit margin.

    At ROD the Sportsbook isn't operated as a money-making business. We're NOT here to win $ROD. We're here for entertainment and to encourage participation on the ROD site. Consequently we've run the books at a much lower profit margin. On a 2 outcome event i've run books at 3.226%, on a 4 outcome event it was 5.238%, and on an 8 outcome event it was 8.557%. In this environment there's no reason to make some events easier or harder to win money so i've stuck to those margins regardless of the event. Thus when you look at the ROD sportsbook on a F1 race we're normally offering slightly better odds on every single racer than real bookies are actually offering.

    That said as of November 2nd I will be further reducing the profit margins on NFL games from 3.226% to 3.093%. The chances are you won't notice any change in the odds but instead of offering 935/1000 on 1 team and 94/100 on the other, (-106.952 & -106.383) or 9375/10000 on both, (-106.667) it'll be 94/100 on both. Rather than 80/100, (-125) and 1098/1000 it'll be 80/100 and 1104/1000. Rather than 29/100, (-344.82) and 289/100 it'll be 29/100 and 291/100. Mostly you'll just see more 94/100. I'll adjust other books and profit margins on non-2-outcome-events once the US election is out of the way.

    We could run the books at a 0% profit margin, or even run every event at a loss. However, members would quickly tire of having gazillions of $ROD and not betting on every single event would feel as though you had missed out. There would also be no reason to bet on a future event such as the Super Bowl or the Rams making the playoffs because it would tie up $ROD that would be making more $ROD every event. It would cease to be a challenge where you back your knowledge and judgement against a bookie and more of a 'collect every token' game like Sonic the Hedgehog or Shockwave.
     
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  9. flv

    flv
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    For the last 3 weekends of the 2016 regular season i'll put the straight -up and handicap lines up as normal but i'll wait until Saturday night UK time to put up the Over/Under bets. There are very few bets on these before Sunday and they are very weather dependant. I'm not going to spend the time updating them between Thursday and Sunday.