What success/value is a 6th or 7th round pick?

[jowenmlk]

Today's Athletic newsletter has interesting information about this subject.

https://links.e1.nytimes.com/s/vb/v5hmdNf35iTqX7zv2JQXqPTFIhAMXpIOCWleAEnEiZA23WyWDNy_Q1RyjMT5qpWaGf8VOaah-9prenhD-nvi4dkMuGR6kRVCusLz6FwX9E6JIb1qMbQxX4ivBb2FnO9VWHYnAB7HhpA/aNRMPBwO3EkPZSJeo3MFBeiM_pRJda0M/14

Summary - past 5 years, a mere 3% of the 397 players drafted in the 6th/7th have any particular value = 11 players. Only 2 in the past two years -- and the one cited with the most success from 2024 is Beaux Limmer, who has faded badly.
So - these trades for 6-7 picks are a major reach.
2022 stands out with Purdy, Pacheco and Rasheed Walker.
2021 had Trey Smith.
I didn't see anyone else of value.
The rest of the article has a lot of good stuff about draft history.

 

[TSFH Fan]

So Russini uses AV value from PFR for the analysis

Approximate Value | Pro-Football-Reference.com

www.pro-football-reference.com

PFR concedes that AV has limitations:

"AV is not meant to be a be-all end-all metric. Football stat lines just do not come close to capturing all the contributions of a player the way they do in baseball and basketball. If one player is a 16 and another is a 14, we can't be very confident that the 16AV player actually had a better season than the 14AV player. But I am pretty confident that the collection of all players with 16AV played better, as an entire group, than the collection of all players with 14AV."

"Essentially, AV is a substitute for --- and a significant improvement upon, in my opinion --- metrics like 'number of seasons as a starter' or 'number of times making the pro bowl' or the like. You should think of it as being essentially like those two metrics, but with interpolation in between. That is, 'number of seasons as a starter' is a reasonable starting point if you're trying to measure, say, how good a particular draft class is, or what kind of player you can expect to get with the #13 pick in the draft. But obviously some starters are better than others. Starters on good teams are, as a group, better than starters on bad teams. Starting WRs who had lots of receiving yards are, as a group, better than starting WRs who did not have many receiving yards. Starters who made the pro bowl are, as a group, better than starters who didn't, and so on. And non-starters aren't worthless, so they get some points too."

Russini dismisses late round draft picks as "attempts to find roster filler." With the bolded language above in mind, it's probably accurate to say that roster filler attempts on good teams (such as the Rams) are, as a group, better than roster filler on bad teams.

Notable Rams picks, not included in the Russini article:

2024
Round 6
Joshua Karty
Jordan Whittington
Tyler Davis

2023
Round 7
Ethan Evans

2022
Round 6
Quentin Lake
Derion Kendrick (like it or not, he's getting snaps for an actual NFL team)

2021
Round 7
Ben Skowronek
(Pitt.)

2020
Round 6
Jordan Fuller
(Looks like he's starting in Atl.)

 

[Tano]

One other thing that no one mentions is that when they take a player they like in the 6th round, it allows them to choose UDFA players that fit a role for the other positions.

The Rams have been extremely efficient at finding quality UDFA players.

 

[Merlin]

Rams seem to be better than most at hitting on picks in general. Particularly true in round 6 too, just going off memory here.

But obviously a 6th rounder comes with a high miss rate. Best thing to hope for is you get a good role player, i.e. depth chart piece or a key player for teams.

 

[Soul Surfer]

I mean how much value is a undrafted free agent?
Just don't ask Kurt Warner that.

 

[Pupped]

I think that one thing that's distorted is the "round" thing...

I mean.. Puka was the 177th pick.. which would be the 17th pick in the 6th round if you eliminate compensation picks. He was, literally, the last pick of the 5th.. and I'd consider him a 6th in this value chart.