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Elmgrovegnome

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Joined
Jan 23, 2013
Messages
22,047
Historically QB’s with a new or relatively new Defensive HC which 9/10 times comes with a brand new to the organization OC which don’t workout just based on odds. Then when they get fired the new staff wants their own guys and that QB is on a short lease and a tight rope if not released or traded.

Maye and Penix are probably going to fail.

Williams
Nix
McCarthy
Daniels

Probably succeed, but at different levels.

Rate of 1st round QB’s busting is around 50%.

Past years 2 out of 3 QB’s busted so for 4 succeed this year to equal the odds as per the law of averages makes sense and goes along with with the rough 50% average.
I think Maye succeeds just because he’s good enough to overcome a bad situation imo.

Nix will fail. Asshole Face had a good QB, he never developed Brees. He won’t develop Nix

Caleb will be fine but putting the Bears behind the Lions in that division is crazy talk. Cowherd is cuckoo.

McCarthy will succeed. He’s good enough plus he’s got the best situation.

Daniels will fail.when he’s pressured he drops his eyes and wants to run. He won’t have the time to sit back and pick NFL teams apart. He will be another first read and run QB.

So, success, Maye, McCarthy, Williams. Fail Nix Daniels
I think Penix will make it. He already does what an NFL QB needs to do from the pocket. He can move well and he has a great deep ball. Like most pocket passers, he will need good pass pro, but that is just how it is. His release may look ackword, but it is quick and gets the job done. I think he is top 3 of the class that came out.
I read that the reason the Falcons liked Penix so much is because they said he’s the closest they’ve ever seen to Matthew Stafford.

I’d say, Minus being able to throw with good anticipation over the middle, deep accuracy, using different arm angles and being able to throw no look passes, sure, he’s just like Stafford. SMH
 

Merlin

Enjoying the ride
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Biggest threat to Penix succeeding will be those legs. Can he stay healthy. I think he'll own that Falcons locker room by the end of the year. Next year he'll be out there doing his thing, dealing that ball downfield. You simply cannot teach a QB to have big balls in the pocket. Some do, and others probably never will.

Williams is just too damn good. This is a completely different QB from Fields. Fields was all bullshit and upside perception but he's a pussy in the pocket. Pussies in the pocket don't last long in the NFL.

McCarthy is like a meme of a modern day white kid QB. All kind and nice, from a great family I am sure, but zero balls to him when it comes to standing in there and putting a fucking knife in a defense. His coach knew it, in spite of all his comments, which is why he never put the game in his hands. Vikes can succeed with him I am sure if they duplicate that. But when you take a QB that high you don't want a game manager. I wouldn't at least.

Nix has a better chance than McCarthy but also has his problems. I do think the weight of the offense was on his shoulders at least. Also I like that he overcame failure in college, which leads me to think maybe he's got those balls he's gonna need to win in that pocket in the NFL. But I don't like his dependency on short passes. It's better than dependency on run game, but not by much.

Daniels is a hard one. I really liked his film at first but the more I watched him the more concerned I became with how quick he bails from the pocket. Thing is he is an incredibly gifted runner. That will help him year one. But he's a pussy in the pocket. Can make the throws, all of them, no problem. But yeah I suspect he'll show well year one then tank like Griffin did. You can't hide who you are at this level for long.

Maye will be fine. He stands in there and deals, kid has big balls. He never had top talent around him. I think he'll be just fine once he gets the offense down.
 

Elmgrovegnome

Legend
Joined
Jan 23, 2013
Messages
22,047
Biggest threat to Penix succeeding will be those legs. Can he stay healthy. I think he'll own that Falcons locker room by the end of the year. Next year he'll be out there doing his thing, dealing that ball downfield. You simply cannot teach a QB to have big balls in the pocket. Some do, and others probably never will.

Williams is just too damn good. This is a completely different QB from Fields. Fields was all bullshit and upside perception but he's a pussy in the pocket. Pussies in the pocket don't last long in the NFL.

McCarthy is like a meme of a modern day white kid QB. All kind and nice, from a great family I am sure, but zero balls to him when it comes to standing in there and putting a fucking knife in a defense. His coach knew it, in spite of all his comments, which is why he never put the game in his hands. Vikes can succeed with him I am sure if they duplicate that. But when you take a QB that high you don't want a game manager. I wouldn't at least.

Nix has a better chance than McCarthy but also has his problems. I do think the weight of the offense was on his shoulders at least. Also I like that he overcame failure in college, which leads me to think maybe he's got those balls he's gonna need to win in that pocket in the NFL. But I don't like his dependency on short passes. It's better than dependency on run game, but not by much.

Daniels is a hard one. I really liked his film at first but the more I watched him the more concerned I became with how quick he bails from the pocket. Thing is he is an incredibly gifted runner. That will help him year one. But he's a pussy in the pocket. Can make the throws, all of them, no problem. But yeah I suspect he'll show well year one then tank like Griffin did. You can't hide who you are at this level for long.

Maye will be fine. He stands in there and deals, kid has big balls. He never had top talent around him. I think he'll be just fine once he gets the offense down.
Between Penix legs and accuracy issues, I don’t see success.

I agree that Nix over dependence on short passes is limiting. Is he Garapolo 2.0 with better running ability?

McCarthy has been given a great chance to succeed. It would be funny if he ends up being another Kirk Cousins

Jayden Daniels has bust written all over him imo. He’s small and is quick to run while not keeping his eyes downfield. Your RG3 trajectory with him could be on point. He’s will likely get injured early on.

Williams and Maye have always been the ones thought to project best to the NFL. How Maye wasn’t the second pick is puzzling.