https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/01/05/w...panthers-saints-bills-offense-jaguars-defense
The Falcons have played a lot of man coverage over the past 18 months, but expect to see more of Dan Quinn’s Seahawks style Cover 3 zone Saturday night.The Rams, with their condensed formations and intertwined routes, are hard to play man against. By going Cover 3, the Falcons keep the action in front of them and are less vulnerable to Todd Gurley’s backfield receiving.
I wonder how much time Rams defensive coordinator Wade Phillips spent visiting with Matt LaFleur, L.A.’s offensive coordinator, this week. LaFleur was Atlanta’s QB coach from 2015-16; he knows what Matt Ryan doesn’t want to see.
Any plan for defending Ryan starts with defending his top weapon, Julio Jones. With Trumaine Johnson, the Rams are one of the few teams who have a corner capable of traveling with bigger receivers like Jones. Johnson alone cannot shut down Jones, but he’ll get steady help from Phillips’ hybrid coverages.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-nfl-wild-card-preview-falcons-at-rams
PFFELO Ranking: 7
Coverage by: Bill O’Brien
MATCHUP: ATLANTA FALCONS OFFENSE VS. LOS ANGELES RAMS DEFENSE
WR Julio Jones vs. CB Trumaine Johnson – In the first playoff game in the city of Los Angeles in quite some time,
PFF All-Pro wide receiver Julio Jones will be among the most important players to watch. For teams to go across the country and pull off a playoff upset, their superstar players usually have to show up in a big way.
Year-in and year-out, Jones has played at a high level, and this year is no different as Jones turned in a
91.6 overall grade, the second-highest overall grade among wide receivers. The Rams will likely employ cornerback Trumaine Johnson to matchup with Jones, although both players see a lot of both sides of the field.
While Johnson enters the weekend with a
74.3 overall grade, (67th among cornerbacks), he earned that grade while shadowing some of the best receivers in the league, including Dez Bryant, DeAndre Hopkins, and Michael Thomas. There is a disparity in their level of play, but it will be interesting to see if Johnson’s experience with playing against big-time receivers will help him.
RB Tevin Coleman vs. LB Alec Ogletree & LB Mark Barron – Falcons starting running back
Devonta Freeman has been limited at practice this week while nursing a knee injury, which could affect his level of availability this week. That leaves fellow running back Tevin Coleman to pick up the slack. Coleman is a very capable backup, especially in the passing game, where he averaged
1.49 yards per route run this year, 22nd among running backs.
The Rams will rely upon their linebackers to cover Coleman out of the backfield. Mark Barron had a
76.9 coverage grade on the season and had an average of
10.0 coverage snaps per reception allowed. Ogletree surrendered the lowest yards per coverage snap (0.91) among all Rams linebackers but his coverage grade of 39.8 leaves much room for improvement.
C Alex Mack vs. DI Aaron Donald– In what will be the most important matchup in the trenches, Rams interior defender Aaron Donald will do battle against Falcons center Alex Mack and the entire interior of the Atlanta offensive line.
Donald has been a nightmare for opposing offensive linemen all season, as his
98.4 overall grade is the second-highest grade of any player regardless of position. Given the pass-blocking efficiencies of backup
Ben Garland (
92.9) and
Wes Schweitzer(
96.0), the Falcons will likely often use Alex Mack to help against Donald, who was the best pass-rushing interior defender this year. Mack should be up to the task, as his
97.9 pass blocking efficiency is ranked 14th among centers.
PFFELO Ranking: 6
Coverage by: Mike Cahill
MATCHUP: LOS ANGELES RAMS OFFENSE VS. ATLANTA FALCONS DEFENSE
WR Robert Woods vs. CB Desmond Trufant – Since Week 9 of the regular season, no wide receiver with at least 23 targets produced a higher passer rating when targeted than Robert Woods. He was targeted 38 times in that span and caught 29 of them for 400 yards, five touchdowns, and a
wide receiver rating of 149.1. Woods’ average of
2.84 yards gained per route run also ranked third at the position during that time.
With Desmond Trufant lining up as the left cornerback of the defense 84.4 percent of the time, Woods will see a lot of the
12th-highest graded cornerback of this season. Trufant had his highest-graded season (86.6 overall grade) since 2013 and will look to continue his success against Woods. He was beat for the most touchdowns he’s ever allowed in a season with six, but only two allowed since Week 9. With Trufant allowing a first down or touchdown on 37 percent of his targets and Woods gaining either a first down or touchdown on 44.0 percent of his, it’s going to be a fun battle to watch.
T Andrew Whitworth vs. Edge Adrian Clayborn – Whitworth’s
pass-blocking efficiency of 96.1 tied for 13th among 55 offensive tackles, while his
24 total quarterback pressures allowed ranked tied for 12th-fewest. Whitworth’s task of stopping Adrian Clayborn will be a tall order, as Clayborn tied for 11th among edge defenders in
pass-rush grade (88.1).
He played 390 of his 394 pass-rushing snaps from the right side of the defense and produced all
54 of his pressures from there, including nine sacks. Clayborn produced 31 of his pressures with either an outside (17) or bullrush (14) pass-rush move. Whitworth gave up 15 of his pressures on outside (seven) or bullrush moves (eight), so it will be interesting to see which player comes in more prepared for each other’s tendencies.
RB Todd Gurley vs. Falcons run defense – Gurley finished 2017 as the
highest-graded running back (92.0), his first elite season (90.0-plus on the grade scale). He and the Rams excelled in games where he carried the ball 20 or more times, as they won all six of the games where he reached that mark. In those games, Gurley was tied for seventh-most yards per carry at 5.2, had the third-most yards after contact with 368 yards, and he also had
eight runs of 15 or more yards.
Gurley, who is a strong presence in the passing game as well, might see more rushing touches this week with linebacker
Deion Jones on the field. Jones ranked tied for first among all linebackers in
coverage grade (93.5). With the Falcons’ defense ending the season tied for seventh in missed tackles with 120 and tied for sixth in missed tackle percentage at 13.9, Gurley should be primed to exploit a heavy rushing workload.
Jones’ 65.4 run-defense grade ranked 49th among 91 linebackers while teammate
De’Vondre Campbell’s 49.5 run-defense grade ranked 60th. Gurley will need to avoid DI
Grady Jarrett (
88.1 run-defense grade) to get to them, however.
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/1/5/16853506/nfl-playoffs-gambling-manifesto-five-picks
Before every playoff game, rate the coaches and quarterbacks from 1 to 10, add up their scores, then make sure you’re OK backing a team with said score.
By Bill Simmons
Rams: Sean McVay (8.5), Jared Goff (6) … 14.5
Falcons: Playoff Quinn (3), 2017 Matt Ryan (6.5) … 9.5
(Steve Sarkisian knocks Playoff Quinn’s score down by a point; Wade Phillips bumps McVay up by a point.)
RAMS (-6) over Falcons
My favorite game on the board for the following reasons …
1. The Rams are better, faster, better coached and more explosive (on both ends) than people realize. They also love going for the jugular, running up the score and doing everything else you’d want from a 6-point favorite—just ask the Seahawks. Throw them on national TV on a Saturday night with 90,000 loud fans and they’ll be even faster. They have a higher level in them. I can feel it.
2. Conversely, the Falcons have looked sloppy as hell, they’re poorly coached (especially in the red zone), they’re playing outdoors (yikes) and their offense is so predictable that anyone who’s played
Madden for more than 500 hours can literally yell out their next play once they line up.
3.
Todd Gurley,
Aaron Donald.
4. The last time we saw a matchup more one-sided than Wade Phillips against Steve Sarkisian, Mike Tyson was fighting Marvis Frazier.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jc2phQYGq2g
5. I’d describe Matt Ryan’s 2017 performance as “a little jittery.”
6. Miraculously, Atlanta became a chic Round 1 upset pick mainly because it’s a favorite-heavy weekend. Great! Please, keep telling me how the talented Falcons could finally put it together after they failed to do so for four solid months—I’d love to hear more!
Only one person can kill the Rams in Round 1: It’s their more-than-shaky kicker, Sam Ficken, someone capable of blowing 9-10 points, killing their momentum and maybe even swinging a double-digit win toward an Atlanta cover.
He’s my biggest fear with the Rams, by far; nothing else comes close. It’s a Super Bowl team with a CFL kicker. I don’t think we’ll have to worry about Sam Ficken this weekend. But next weekend in Minnesota? Gulp. Let’s hope he doesn’t end up with his own Playoff Manifesto rule.
The Pick: Rams 37, Falcons 19
