Why Do People Love Mock Drafts?

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http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/03/21/...-deshaun-watson-pro-day-mike-williams-40-time

Why Do People Love Mock Drafts?
Loathed by many who produce them, yet loved by those who read them. The biggest names who cover the draft weigh in on the mock draft phenomenon
by Emily Kaplan

The draft is 37 days away, and already 195 outlets have published mock drafts online. That’s according to letsgoredskins.com, a blog that, inexplicably, has been charting such data since 2001. That count doesn’t include spinoff posts—other media outlets literally reporting on the results of said simulations. It also doesn’t factor in repeat offenders. I, for example, have published two mocks. SB Nation’s Dan Kadar, whose Twitter handle is, aptly, @MockingTheDraft, has authored one every Monday since Nov. 28.

If any of this sounds outlandish, imagine how ESPN’s Mel Kiper assesses a modern landscape littered with mocks. The godfather of NFL draft coverage, Kiper produced his first mock draft in 1978, as a community college freshman. He sold 100 issues of his draft guide, then quit school. A few other draft publications, such as Pro Football Weekly, included mocks at the time—but Kiper willed the niche into the mainstream.

“People talk more about the draft than NFL games,” Kiper says. “And for many people, how they talk about the draft is through mock drafts.”

If the NFL draft is the most popular non-sporting event in sports, mocks are the primary vehicle for the hype. This is not an industry secret: No matter the time of year, no matter the author, mock drafts draw a huge audience.

“If I wrote a thoughtful piece about how we marginalize black quarterbacks in scouting, people would read it,” says Matt Miller of Bleacher Report. “But 10 times the amount of people might read my mock draft.”

Adds Todd McShay, Kiper’s ESPN teammate: “I’m always mildly surprised by how many people read these things. But I know I shouldn’t be.”

And NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah says: “When I made the transition from scouting to the media, I learned to never read comments on anything I write. And for the love of god, never, ever read the comments on a mock draft.”

The question I’ve always wondered: Why do people care—and care so much—about mock drafts?

* * *

Mock drafts will always carry the stigma of a work-from-your-basement industry; wannabe analysts filling in Mad Libs. Insert some jargon, add a little bit of recycled wisdom citing trends, and make a series of educated guesses.

“I think my 3-year-old could make a pretty good draft,” Miller says. “I mean, picking out of a hat, you’d probably get a few right.” Insiders have legitimized the practice by picking up the phone and checking in with sources, and yet the distinction is still muddled.

Perhaps as confusing as why people like them is why they exist in the first place (besides the aforementioned traffic numbers). The editor of this column, Gary Gramling, likes to say a mock draft sets a baseline for fan expectations. NFL front offices conduct dozens of mocks; it helps project the market.

“I do see some benefit in going through the exercise,” says Jeremiah. “It’s easy to flippantly say, This guy is a first-round pick, this is guy is a second rounder. But when you put names to teams, including team needs, it’s like, Hold up, not all of these guys can go in the first round.”

Adds McShay: “I’ve always said, Chris Mortensen and [Adam] Schefter, the scoop guys, they should be doing these things if you want them to be most accurate.”

In the early ’80s, Kiper produced twin mock drafts: One version detailed what Kiper believed should happen. The other predicted what he believed would happen. It confused the hell out of his readers.

“I got so many letters,” he says. “I had to write people back. Having to explain myself became burdensome.” So Kiper benched his opinion. Miller, who also ranks the top 300 players based off his own tape study, says his rankings are his eyes and his mock drafts are his ears. Jeremiah, too, produces a popular top 50 ranking.

“I’ll defend any questions you may have on that, because that’s how I view the players after studying them,” Jeremiah says. “Mock drafts for me, are solely based off what I am hearing. So I can’t take offense if you don’t agree.”

Not that it matters. Readers will inevitably get upset.

* * *

A romantic might say the mock draft’s popularity is rooted in unbridled optimism. Just as, each August, hope springs eternal at training camp, approaching the draft, mocks give you a sense that your team could be one piece away.

A cynic’s alternative: America loves listicles.

Theories are sprinkled across the spectrum.

“Mock drafts are popular because the audience is larger,” McShay says. “It’s the intersection of college and NFL fans.”

“It has a fantasy football vibe to it,” Jeremiah says. “You’re trying to match up [players and teams] and see how many you get right.”

“Fans love mock drafts because it’s almost more fun than the draft,” says Kiper. “Like Christmas, it’s all about the speculation. You know you’re going to get a gift, but you wonder, Will it be perfect? Will it fit right?”

“I grew up in Cleveland,” says Kadar. “So the draft is our Super Bowl.”

Surmises Miller: “It’s the same reason we follow election polls. You want your thoughts to be validated by someone in the know.”

It’s not just fans tuning in.

“I'll get guys [in the NFL] calling me saying, ‘Bro we’re not taking that guy,’” Jeremiah says. “Most of them will deny it publicly, but they all read that stuff.”

And Jeremiah’s usual response: “That’s fine. I don’t really care who you take.”

It’s not as much apathy as a resignation that perfect prognostication is near impossible—especially on Jan. 19, when Jeremiah’s Mock Draft 1.0 was released. (Consider how much has changed in these two months—from the combine to pro days to teams addressing needs in free agency.) “But, it’s good for the website,” Jeremiah says. “No use complaining about it, just do it and move on.”

For those who are lukewarm on mock drafts, there is only one thing worse. “There is no way I would ever do draft grades,” McShay says. “Maybe three or five years later you could retroactively look, but how can you assess a grade before any of the guys play a down?”

And so when McShay balked at that assignment, editors offered an alternative—as McShay views it, a tradition unlike any other. “It’s my least favorite activity,” he says. “But probably does the best of anything I write.”

On Wednesday, May 3, he will publish his first mock draft for 2018.
 

Merlin

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For those who are lukewarm on mock drafts, there is only one thing worse. “There is no way I would ever do draft grades,” McShay says. “Maybe three or five years later you could retroactively look, but how can you assess a grade before any of the guys play a down?”

I do think grades are kind of stupid right out the gate.

That said, if McShay has a board he believes in and he researches/knows the needs of teams, that's how he can assess a grade. And of course we all know the draft is a damn coin flip anyway, but he would be evaluating the team's performance in filling needs and how much value he perceives they picked up for the positions where those players were drafted.
 

OldSchool

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I do think grades are kind of stupid right out the gate.

That said, if McShay has a board he believes in and he researches/knows the needs of teams, that's how he can assess a grade. And of course we all know the draft is a damn coin flip anyway, but he would be evaluating the team's performance in filling needs and how much value he perceives they picked up for the positions where those players were drafted.
IMO they get the immediate draft grades wrong. They should be for if the team addressed thei needs. Too often they're people projecting their idea of value and their perception of fit. Wade Phillips and Gregg Williams know players that they can work with better than Kiper, Mayock or myself.
 

LACHAMP46

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I like mocks because I get to learn about new players....and I learn a little about the people that like and mock them as well.
 

Riverumbbq

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I happen to love the game of chess, it requires deep thought and real concentration. Instead of 16 players playing both offense and defense, where a King & Queen are basically combined into a single QB, mocks can pit 90 players against themselves first until a cut down to 53 players, then those winners are divided into 11 starters on each side of the ball & separate offensive, defensive & special teams units form, ... and it all has to be done accounting for scheme fit and a CAP. Of course, before we even get to pare down to 53, no self respecting mocker will leave out free agency, as it is our first test towards reaching a successful draft. For me, playing at NFL GM is like a more expansive game of chess, with far more intrigue. There is no right or wrong way to win a mock, it's not possible, we'll never know because reality will never allow us to pit these players either together or against each other. I've never played Madden, so perhaps you can do that over there. Eventually we'll be able to reach some sort of conclusion whether a player has a good career or not, but we'll never know how they would have performed in our own scenarios. A successful mock will hardly be able to account for injuries, and measuring its success is pretty subjective as it's usually other fans grading us in a comment section before players ever see the field.
Often, mocks are fairly similar because most posters have a pretty good idea about which positions require help, so it becomes a matter of which players at whatever position is deemed most helpful to make the biggest positive impact. Mocking is simple entertainment, but it has a competitive edge, it's also educational because we learn so much about the players and gain insight from different points of view. There can also be harsh reactions & reviews, so having thick skin is always helpful. Since it's pretty unlikely any one of us can become a real NFL GM, this is the next best thing. We are all invested as fans of our favorite team, all we're really doing is seeking the best method to improve it from a personal point of view. Harmless fun is what it is imo.
 

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I like Mocks over Turtle Necks, seriously I enjoy them most on this board because the National Media Mocks like SI, USA Today, Walter's have nothing on @jrry32 , @OldSchool , @Riverumbbq & @Memento besides many others.
Totally agree.
I Get a kick out of all of them.
I'm still waiting for @jrry32 to mock us a great return specialist.
WWe haven't had a dynamic, dangerous return man since Tony Horne
 

jrry32

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Totally agree.
I Get a kick out of all of them.
I'm still waiting for @jrry32 to mock us a great return specialist.
WWe haven't had a dynamic, dangerous return man since Tony Horne

I'm assuming you're talking about a KR? T.J. Logan (HB/KR North Carolina) is one. I've thought about including him in some of my mocks, but it's always hard to find a slot. We need depth on defense.

A few other names to keep in mind:
Brandon Wilson CB/KR Houston
Shelton Gibson WR/KR West Virginia
Carlos Henderson WR/KR Louisiana Tech
Ishmael Zamora WR/KR Baylor
Adoree Jackson WR/KR/PR Southern Cal
Rodney Adams WR/KR USF
Joe Mixon HB/KR Oklahoma
Victor Bolden Jr. WR/KR Oregon State

Logan, Jackson, and Henderson are probably the three best KRs in this class.
 

jrry32

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The only mocks I look at are on this board. I don't care what the so called experts say anymore.

Agreed. Knowledgeable fans know more about their individual teams than an "expert" can know about all 32 teams. Plus, some of these media "experts" are hacks (ex. Matt Miller).
 

BeefJurky

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I like mocks because I get to learn about new players....and I learn a little about the people that like and mock them as well.

Same. I do follow college football but not nearly enough to make a 7 round mock draft for any team.
Its fun to get excited about the draft because its part of the future of the team.

Also, what else is there to talk about?

Its a loooong offseason
 

dieterbrock

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The only mocks I look at are on this board. I don't care what the so called experts say anymore.
There are mocks elsewhere?
Who knew?
I really appreciate the time, energy and thought that is put in to the mocks on here. I read every one of them and love the commentary. I watch a ton of college football, probably even more than NFL and feel I have a pretty good pulse on players coming in to the league. But despite that, I learn a crap ton in these threads, moreso than I ever would figure out on my own!
 

LACHAMP46

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T.J. Logan (HB/KR North Carolina) is one. I've thought about including him in some of my mocks, but it's always hard to find a slot.
I was looking at the highlights of UNC's pro day. Geez that guy was ripped! Ran a 4.35 too....Looks like and excellent scat-back/pass catcher too. Learn from....Dunbar?