Something I noticed regarding Gurley

[rams24/7]

I have to admit, basking in the glory of a 2-1 start has been nice, considering we've started 1-2 or worse in our first 3 since 2007; but as the ecstasy of another dramatic win wears off I found myself wondering how we can improve this team. What can we fix this year?

Sure getting back a healthy Gaines anywhere near his 2014 campaign would do wonders for this D. As would Quinn returning to his 2013 form, which it seems like is becoming more of a possibility week after week. Or adding Cooper and Spruce into the fold: two possession receivers known for their hands and ability to make contested catches (something few on this offense have shown the ability to consistently do).

No folks, the answer (paging @jrry32 ) to this team becoming a playoff contender this year is Jared Goff.

I'm sure some of you are wondering: how does this tie into Gurley? It's as simple as:

He started getting it going today. The Bucs and our other opponents bring an 8th man into the box on every running down because they don't fear Keenum. It was getting in Todd's head. When you combine that with an OL that has been shaky in the run blocking department, it breeds bad results.

IMO, the best chance to open some running lanes is to get Goff on the field. He can back defenses off because his arm talent allows him to challenge more parts of the field. Keenum is doing his best. He was much more aggressive against TB. But it's still difficult for him.

It'll also help Gurley if the OL can do a better job of opening holes and holding their blocks.

Bottom line is a better QB, one with the ability to air it out & consistently convert routine NFL throws (both of which Keenum fails at), will warrant more respect and as a result more favorable matchups for Todd will arise.

I found myself wondering: were the first 4 games a coming out party for Todd and the league had yet to adjust? Why has he only posted ONE 100-yard game in his last 11 games? I looked at personnel. We have virtually the same OL this year as last, arguably better with more experience under their belts. We have the same skill players, aside from the three rookies who have yet to make an impact.

So why has Todd's production fallen off? It's certainly not on Todd, as I've seen him turn -5 into +2 time and time again this year.

It's the quarterback.

I know Nick Foles is no Aaron Rodgers, but he is a one-time Pro Bowl QB with NFL tools and is a step up from what we have in Case Keenum. Keenum is gritty, but lacks arm strength, accuracy, anticipation, and awareness. You can win games in the NFL in spite of good quarterback play, but not consistently and certainly not consistently enough to make the playoffs.

I've done enough rambling, so I'm just gonna drop my stats on you:

(CPG=carries per game, YPG=yards per game, TDPG=TD per game, OPPG=total offense points per game, & %OPPG=% of offensive points scored by Todd)

You can take away from these numbers what you want, but what I see is a clear correlation between a greater passing threat in Foles and good numbers from Todd. The numbers also show that there is less stress on Todd (fewer carries), but he's more effective with the touches he gets (5.4 ypc to 3.6 ypc). Lets also not forget Todd had 4 100-yard games in 8 games with Foles and only 1 in 7 games with Case.

So please, @jrry32 and I beg you Fisher, please insert Goff ASAP. You've maxed out Case's potential and Todd is suffering because of it!

 

[Debacled]

You are severly skewing the numbers if you include the pre-implosion Foles games into what you are looking at. Foles looked ok until teams figured him out, cover his first read and he is terrible at going through progressions (much like Keenum has been here recently. He was much better in the Bucs game but its easy to improve from where he started). Gurley is the main threat on this team, and until it can prove for more than one game that it can pose any kind of threat through the air the tough sledding for Gurley isn't going to change.


They aren't going to put Goff in, its been said many times, and it wouldn't make life any easier on Gurley. Teams are still going to identify him as the major threat and literally dare the QB to beat them. A rookie QB isn't going to scare anyone. Arm talent doesn't fix read progression issues, nor does it fix inexperience under center or making blitz calls or play adjustments.

 

[PressureD41]

Excellent post. I think the leash is getting shorter each week, though the coaching staff would not lead you to believe this. How many more under 200 yards passing games will Fisher allow before his hand is forced. Put me on record week 6 will be the Goff era. Unless those sad sack QBs numbers end w/ losses.
Its coming folks and possibly sooner than we think.

Its time to unleash the Goff era

 

[Merlin]

The QB is definitely a position where they can upgrade significantly.

But OL is also a position where they can improve week to week. The line has been hovering around solid range in pass pro, but below average in the run game. Some of it is scheme, where they are facing a non-stop barrage of run blitzes, but it's also just poor run blocking by the players and bad execution with breakdowns all over.

I suspect Fish and Boras had them work very heavy on pass pro and it's something they're gonna get ironed out here in the next few games. But it's clearly a problem and it is a way this team can get a LOT better here real soon.

My hope of course is that run game gets rolling and then they are looking at a big upgrade at QB at some point, plus a small boost from adding a couple hands guys to the offense in Coop and Spruce. Oh yeah, that would be nice.

 

[jrry32]

They aren't going to put Goff in, its been said many times, and it wouldn't make life any easier on Gurley. Teams are still going to identify him as the major threat and literally dare the QB to beat them. A rookie QB isn't going to scare anyone.

Watching Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott, they'd certainly make life easier on Gurley. Teams would be far more afraid of them than Keenum. So why not Goff?

Arm talent doesn't fix read progression issues, nor does it fix inexperience under center or making blitz calls or play adjustments.

You know what does fix those issues? Experience. However, if rookie QBs have shown us anything over the past 5 or so years, it's that those issues often aren't as severe as people believe they are.

Goff providing us with better QB play absolutely opens up running lanes for Gurley. The Rams are second to last in the NFL in every major passing category (passing yards, passing TDs, YPA, and QB Rating). I don't see how Goff makes us any worse.

 

[Debacled]

Watching Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott, they'd certainly make life easier on Gurley. Teams would be far more afraid of them than Keenum. So why not Goff?



You know what does fix those issues? Experience. However, if rookie QBs have shown us anything over the past 5 or so years, it's that those issues often aren't as severe as people believe they are.

Goff providing us with better QB play absolutely opens up running lanes for Gurley. The Rams are second to last in the NFL in every major passing category (passing yards, passing TDs, YPA, and QB Rating). I don't see how Goff makes us any worse.

You could easily argue Goff is one of the least ready 1st round QBs to be drafted within the last 5 years as well.

I don't believe Goff would provide better QB play right now. I don't have any faith in his ability to progress through reads, make adjustments at the line, or efficiently handle snaps from center even yet.

Turnovers are key here. You can guarantee turnovers would increase with Goff. I've mentioned it before, but starting Goff would look similar to Alex Smith's rookie year, and it wasn't pretty. The Rams aren't fielding a stupid good line like the Cowboys (nor do they have the outside threats they do) and Wentz is ahead of Goff in handling pro style concepts (such as working under center).

This is a ball control offense based on limiting turnovers. Keenum just fits that better now than Goff does.

 

[jrry32]

You could easily argue Goff is one of the least ready 1st round QBs to be drafted within the last 5 years as well.

You can argue that. But you won't get far arguing that with me. Can't point to Goff's mechanics as problematic. Can't point to Goff's pocket presence/movement as problematic. Can't point to Goff's mental processing ability and field vision as problematic. Can't point to Goff's on the field responsibilities as problematic.

What can you point to? Scheme. Problem with that argument is that Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota, Robert Griffin III, and Dak Prescott all came out of spread offenses. All of them started Week 1 of their rookie years.

If Goff wasn't "ready," that points to a coaching issue.

I don't believe Goff would provide better QB play right now. I don't have any faith in his ability to progress through reads, make adjustments at the line, or efficiently handle snaps from center even yet.

I'd love to see your faith tested. Because I am very confident that your lack of faith would be proven wrong.

Turnovers are key here. You can guarantee turnovers would increase with Goff. I've mentioned it before, but starting Goff would look similar to Alex Smith's rookie year, and it wasn't pretty. The Rams aren't fielding a stupid good line like the Cowboys (nor do they have the outside threats they do) and Wentz is ahead of Goff in handling pro style concepts (such as working under center).

Why? Alex Smith had the worst rookie season of any 1st round QB from 2000 to present. Yet, that's the level of play you expect from Goff? What indicates that to you? Let's just say that the odds are stacked heavily against that happening. Not to mention the fact that it's gotten significantly easier to pass and significantly easier to be a rookie QB in the NFL since Alex Smith's rookie year.

So I feel very comfortable saying that's incorrect.

As for turnovers, Case Keenum has 2 TDs to 3 Ints in 3 games. One of those Ints was a pick six. There's no guarantee turnovers increase with Goff. Even if they do, I'll take the increase in turnovers with the increase in points.

As for the Rams OL:


Against the Seahawks, the OL allowed Keenum to be pressured on only 6 of 34 drop-backs. The OL is playing damn well in pass protection. It's yet another reason why the Rams should insert Goff.

This is a ball control offense based on limiting turnovers. Keenum just fits that better now than Goff does.

Keenum has 3 INTs in 3 games. He's not doing a good job of limiting turnovers. His INT against Tampa Bay was a pick six. The whole "Keenum won't turn it over" argument simply isn't availing. Keenum has turned it over. And he's combined turnovers with a failure to put up points.

In fact, if there's anything this offense hasn't done over the first 3 games, it's control the ball. Things were better against Tampa. But Keenum killed Tampa last year and played poorly in our other games.

Simply put, there's no good reason to continue to trot Keenum out there. I fully expect Fisher to do it until his hand is forced, but it's not a good idea.

 

[FrankenRam]

The QB is definitely a position where they can upgrade significantly.

But OL is also a position where they can improve week to week. The line has been hovering around solid range in pass pro, but below average in the run game. Some of it is scheme, where they are facing a non-stop barrage of run blitzes, but it's also just poor run blocking by the players and bad execution with breakdowns all over.

I suspect Fish and Boras had them work very heavy on pass pro and it's something they're gonna get ironed out here in the next few games. But it's clearly a problem and it is a way this team can get a LOT better here real soon.

My hope of course is that run game gets rolling and then they are looking at a big upgrade at QB at some point, plus a small boost from adding a couple hands guys to the offense in Coop and Spruce. Oh yeah, that would be nice.

I am still inclined to think one of the various reasons Fisher hasn't thrown Goff to the wolves is because he wanted to see how the OL shook out the first few games. It would be bad enough if the kid just weren't ready himself, but it would be a major issue if his issues were compounded by a line that just wasn't playing well.

 

[shaunpinney]

Great post @rams24/7

I'm of the belief that you put your best team together with the best players on the field of play. I believe that Goff is a better QB than Keenum and as @jrry32 said the argument of Case not turning over the ball just doesn't wash - that pick 6 at TB was awful - a rookie error for want of a better word! he basically threw it at the TB player. And, I, for one am fed up of these sub 200 yard games, we need to start stretching the field and loosening up opposing defences.

Goff has a higher ceiling AND floor than Keenum, I don't see why we don't put the guy with a higher ceiling in right now and iron out the wrinkles during game-time. He's a bright guy, and was commended on it during the pre-draft stuff. Will he do mistakes? Definitely, but he will learn and improve.

If they're saying he's still not ready then something's not right, he would have been able to pick up the playbook by now, and if its the speed of the game, then he's never going to be ready for that unless he plays. We gave a lot to pick him, it seems foolish to play a sub standard player when you have better on the bench.

Our o-line is playing well - that unit was fixed last year.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

I am still inclined to think one of the various reasons Fisher hasn't thrown Goff to the wolves is because he wanted to see how the OL shook out the first few games. It would be bad enough if the kid just weren't ready himself, but it would be a major issue if his issues were compounded by a line that just wasn't playing well.

I hope that you are right, and if you are, then we should see Goff at QB soon, because the pass blocking has been good.

 

[fearsomefour]

Nice post.
Foles is worse than Keenum.
That Foles trade was horrendous....except picking up an extra pick or two for a guy the team was not going to resign anyway (a guy who, if things well, has a real shot of winning the NFC with the Vikings).
If Goff is put in now that would mean even more blitzing and stacked fronts. Now, maybe he could make Ds pay. That is just projection however as he hasn't faced it the NFL.

 

[fearsomefour]

I hope that you are right, and if you are, then we should see Goff at QB soon, because the pass blocking has been good.

Outside of the SF game it has been pretty solid. Keenum has also (post week 1) shown a willingness to stand in the pocket and take hits for the most part.
There is (likely) not some magical special offense that is going to come in with Goff. Our passing O is what it is.
Keenan's 2 TD were down the field. How people forget this a day after the game is beyond me. Also the TD to Austin he audibled into....because Austin was on a S....this cannot be overstated.
I want to see why Goff can do too and, like everyone else on here I am sure, want whomever is playing to do well. But, replacing the QB after he did what he needs to do.....be efficient (figuring in the drops, Britt and Austin not the "devil"....aka Quick) and make some plays downfield....makes no sense.
There is perception and reality. Sometimes fans bend reality to fit their perception.

 

[LACHAMP46]

Well said....I have been screaming for Goff too....Not sure if Fisher is listening...I've seen enough of Keenum...I'll still say, this Az game...every next game, will be the game Goff gets his first look....

 

[Psycho_X]

So anymore word on why Gurley was in a walking boot after the game?

 

[-X-]

Bottom line is a better QB, one with the ability to air it out & consistently convert routine NFL throws (both of which Keenum fails at), will warrant more respect and as a result more favorable matchups for Todd will arise.

Maybe, but also maybe not. I don't see Jared Goff, even with his unprecedented arm talent, being someone defenses are going to fear right away. They're still going to take the same approach of stacking up against the run and putting pressure on him in order to rattle him. Maybe he could exploit that and make defenses pay, or maybe he'll get clobbered and do just enough to help us win. Similar to what Keenum is doing now. I don't think anyone can say definitively how that will pan out until we *see* it pan out. Now. All that said, this myth that Keenum is holding Gurley back? Last year, in his 4 games with Keenum, Gurley averaged 85 yards a game and had 5 touchdowns. I don't see the correlation. Last year again, against Green Bay, Foles threw for 141 yards with 4 picks (while GB was stacking up against the run), yet Gurley ran for 153 yards.

Mayyyyyyyyyyyyyyybe Gurley needs to be Gurley regardless of the fronts he's facing. And maybe the line needs to get a better push. He only needs one hole or crease to break one, no matter how many defenders are in the box. In fact (according to even Gurley himself), breaking through an 8 or 9 man front leads to much bigger gains. Steven Jackson did a fairly good job of getting his despite having no QB for several years. It's not impossible to do. But, you're right. IF Goff is everything the Rams hope he'll be, then he absolutely will loosen up defenses. But only if Boras can scheme the receivers open. If he can't do that, or they can't get open consistently, then it won't matter who the QB is. It'll just be more of the same offensive Strugglenauts.

 

[Psycho_X]

So anymore word on why Gurley was in a walking boot after the game?

Oops never mind, guess the brief talk about this on twitter the other day was due to the picture below that looked like Gurley was wearing a boot but was actually Hayes. Didn't see the conclusion until just now. Carry on nothing to see here.

 

[blackbart]

Wow I thought there was some insight actually about Gurley NOPE just another lame attempt to promote why isn't Goff playing. As if there could possibly be anything that hasn't be said about the dead horse, really.

Goff going in now has equal shots at playing well and getting beaten into an injury. He sucked at getting rid of the ball in pre-season against vanilla second string defenses and brought nothing to the offense to suggest he was ready to play in the NFL.

Could Gurley do better playing with Rogers, Brady, or one of the other elite NFL QBs? More than likely but Goff ain't that and he's not going to be anytime soon.

 

[Memphis Ram]

You can argue that. But you won't get far arguing that with me. Can't point to Goff's mechanics as problematic. Can't point to Goff's pocket presence/movement as problematic. Can't point to Goff's mental processing ability and field vision as problematic. Can't point to Goff's on the field responsibilities as problematic.

What can you point to? Scheme. Problem with that argument is that Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota, Robert Griffin III, and Dak Prescott all came out of spread offenses. All of them started Week 1 of their rookie years.

If Goff wasn't "ready," that points to a coaching issue.

Of course, all of them can run to make up for some errors and keep defenses honest.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Outside of the SF game it has been pretty solid. Keenum has also (post week 1) shown a willingness to stand in the pocket and take hits for the most part.
There is (likely) not some magical special offense that is going to come in with Goff. Our passing O is what it is.
Keenan's 2 TD were down the field. How people forget this a day after the game is beyond me. Also the TD to Austin he audibled into....because Austin was on a S....this cannot be overstated.
I want to see why Goff can do too and, like everyone else on here I am sure, want whomever is playing to do well. But, replacing the QB after he did what he needs to do.....be efficient (figuring in the drops, Britt and Austin not the "devil"....aka Quick) and make some plays downfield....makes no sense.
There is perception and reality. Sometimes fans bend reality to fit their perception.

What I see is the Rams seeking out wins with Keenum. He did some good things this week sure, but his passes still lack velocity and have far too much arc to them. I think he leaves some plays on the field too. Plus if Goff is close to being able to start, then the more live reps the better. Get him in there to learn the speed of the game and get experience. Winning isn't as important this year as it is in coming years IMO.