Pressure Builds in Jacksonville

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http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2015/07/31/...khan-gus-bradley-david-caldwell-blake-bortles

Pressure Builds in Jacksonville

Two years after an organizational overhaul and one summer after a free agent spending spree, the Jags should be on the road back to respectability. But do GM Dave Caldwell and coach Gus Bradley have the right pieces in place around QB Blake Bortles? Owner Shad Khan will know soon

by Andy Benoit

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Gus Bradley (Photo by John Raoux/AP)

Imagine it’s New Year’s Day, 2016. Shad Khan is at his desk, stroking his mustache, deep in thought. His Jaguars have lost more than 11 games for the fourth time since he bought the franchise in November 2012. Not that he’s blaming himself, necessarily. Having not reached the postseason since 2007, this was, after all, a team mired in mediocrity. When Khan took over, he understood that an organizational overhaul was inevitable. Organizational overhauls usually mean one step back before any steps forward.

The overhaul came a year later, in 2013. To spearhead it, Khan hired Dave Caldwell as his GM. With Khan’s blessing, Caldwell hired Gus Bradley as head coach. Understanding the size of the rebuilding efforts before them, Khan gave Caldwell a five-year contract, realizing that he’d likely need at least the first three or four of those years just to gain traction. Bradley was given a four-year deal.

It was easy at that time to look to the future with patience. But after 25 Sunday nights of going to bed dejected from a loss, even the most serene man starts to squirm. (Ostensibly, this would be especially true for a billionaire in his 60s who has grown accustom to winning in life.)

Caldwell is the man Khan finds himself contemplating on this New Year’s Day. Age 38 at the time of his hiring, Caldwell had been heavily sought-after coming from Thomas Dimitroff’s front office in Atlanta. Before that, he had scouted in Indianapolis under future Hall of Famer Bill Polian. It reasons that Caldwell, like his mentors, believes in building through the draft.

Khan can’t help but wonder if his GM had felt a little undue pressure in the 2015 offseason, when the Jags spent $79.1 million in guarantees to sign five notable free agents: tight end Julius Thomas, right tackle Jermey Parnell, defensive lineman Jared Odrick, outside linebacker Dan Skuta and cornerback Davon House.

Now Khan is looking back on the 2015 season. With the exception of maybe Parnell, who’d been a backup in Dallas and showed why with his poor mechanics and lack of quickness, all the free agents were fine in their first year with the Jags. Thomas created favorable matchup problems in the passing game; Odrick was a beast, particularly against the run; Skuta proved not quite as proficient in a 4-3 as he’d been in San Francisco’s 3-4, but he played with a motor and had a way of surpassing opponents’ expectations; and House was a deft outside corner who could play zone or man. He’d even slid into the slot a few times.

Khan reasons that his worries about the 2015 free-agent investments are probably just his hindsight playing mind games. Besides, with the elevated salary cap and a young roster, the Jags had the money to spend on veterans. And they’d certainly had immediate holes to fill.

None of the free agents appeared to be significant difference-makers though. After all, here Khan’s team is on New Years Day slated to pick near the top of the next draft. What a waste of playing in a weakened AFC South.

Khan’s mind, continuing to wander, touches on other decisions his GM has made. You have to start with the hiring of Bradley. Everyone likes the guy, including the players. His enthusiasm is contagious. But it’s true, Bradley had overseen an exceptionally talented defense in Seattle, where his work as coordinator propelled him to the head coaching searches. Seattle’s collection of talent had enabled Bradley to prosper with a straightforward hybrid zone scheme. The coach never had to outsmart opponents, his players just had to out-execute them.

Which isn’t to say Bradley didn’t deserve the credit he got in Seattle. Someone had to teach the scheme’s fundamentals and nuances to those talented young players. But now there’s no disputing that Bradley’s scheme has not prospered the same way in Jacksonville. The Jaguars ranked 28th and 26th in points allowed in his first two years on the job, and Year Three wasn’t much better.

The question Khan ponders is: Why? Did Caldwell hire the wrong coach? Or has the GM failed to find the right players? Granted, there has been some bad luck—really bad luck—along the way. Jacksonville’s most recent first-round rookie, No. 3 overall pick Dante Fowler, tore his ACL in the first rookie minicamp. That’s football’s version of wrecking a new car 10 minutes after driving it off the lot.

The year before, in October 2014, veteran middle linebacker Paul Posluszny, the defense’s backbone, was lost for the season with a torn pectoral. And at the end of 2014, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, who had more than lived up to the four-year, $22 million extension he’d signed in late 2013, tore his ACL.

Though injuries are part of football, Caldwell could reasonably point to these as significant setbacks. And he could also point out that some young players had overachieved under him and Bradley. Linebacker Telvin Smith, a fifth-round pick in 2014, is one example. He played with fluidity and awareness down the stretch as a rookie and built off that in Year Two. 2013 seventh-rounder Demetrius McCray, who being a lanky 6-2 has the build that Bradley likes at outside corner, had blossomed into a starter.

But every team has a few late-round success stories. What about the misses and foul balls? Like 2013 second-round safety Johnathan Cyprien? By and large, he’d proven an okay player, but little more. Did Caldwell miss on him? Or did Bradley not coach him right? What about the previous year’s second-rounder, defensive end Andre Branch?

He wasn’t Caldwell’s pick, so no blame there, but why hadn’t he become another version of Chris Clemons under Bradley’s tutelage? Injuries were a factor, but Branch had been up-and-down when healthy. Or what about 2013 third-rounder Dwayne Gratz? Promising as a rookie, inconsistent as a sophomore and likely headed for a long-term nickel role. Regression in young players is always alarming.

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Blake Bortles (Photo by Rick Osentoski/AP)

Then there are the issues on offense. Bradley originally hired Jedd Fisch as coordinator. That was a mistake. The Jags finished dead last in scoring and second to last in yards in each of Fisch’s first two years. In 2015, Bradley fired Fisch and brought in well-traveled play-caller Greg Olson. Olson over the previous 10 years had held coordinator jobs in Detroit, St. Louis, Tampa Bay and Oakland. The wide-reaching connections he’d made from so many stops had put him in a lot of rolodexes. Other coaches understood that Olson had never been given a true franchise quarterback to work with. Bradley wanted to give him that chance with Blake Bortles.

After just one year together, there probably isn’t enough evidence for Khan to pass judgment on the coordinator and quarterback. Bortles is clearly comfortable playing on the move, and he’d thrown into coverage less often in 2015 than he did as a wide-eyed rookie. But too often issues along the offensive line still left him with no chance. Which is another reason Khan finds himself deliberating over Caldwell.

Caldwell’s first draft decision was taking left tackle Luke Joeckel second overall, despite the Jags having direr needs elsewhere. Joeckel so far has been a disappointment. His susceptibility to the bull rush is disconcerting. Caldwell also spent $12.5 million in guarantees on guard Zane Beadles in 2014, only to quickly see why the Broncos had willingly let him leave in free agency. Beadles steadied after a slow start, but he’s been nothing special.

Caldwell tacitly admitted this by drafting guard AJ Cann in the third round in ’15, even though he’d also drafted guard Brandon Linder in the third round in ’14. And then there was the over-spending for Parnell. He’d been better than previous right tackle Austin Pasztor, but not $14.5 million guaranteed better.

The deficiencies along the O-line had contributed to Jacksonville’s continued struggles in running the ball. Toby Gerhart—another bad free-agent signing—proved to not be the answer in 2014, so Caldwell spent a second-rounder on Alabama’s T.J. Yeldon, hoping he’d become the next Eddie Lacy, not Trent Richardson. Caldwell had also spent second-round picks in 2014 on Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson, two wide receivers who were better equipped for a spread offense. That sticks in Khan’s craw. Because what’s apparent after watching Bortles for two years is, with his somewhat methodical throwing motion, he’s more suited for a traditional dropback pocket passing game. So why give him spread receivers?

It feels like too many of Caldwell’s moves have had this sort of subtle incongruence. Almost as if the plan has been not to build a certain type of football team, but rather, to plug as many holes as possible and see where things end up.

Wanting to not be impetuous, Khan will not make any decisions here at his desk on New Year’s Day. In the back of his mind, he knows he’ll probably stand pat and treat 2016 as a make-or-break year for his GM and head coach. This wasn’t what the owner had wanted, of course. Pressure isn’t necessarily the best way to build a strong business. Then again, it’s the NFL. If your leaders can’t work under pressure, it means you picked the wrong leaders.

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Allen Robinson (Photo by John Raoux/AP)



Jaguars Nickel Package
1. Expect the Jags to put Blake Bortles on the move this year. That’s a way to make a young quarterback more comfortable, plus Bortles shows promise in this capacity. Don’t be surprised if this includes four or five read-option snaps a game.

2. Wide receiver Allen Robinson’s development will be critical in 2015. Robinson showed talent as a rookie, but he has a lot to learn in terms of route running nuance and reading defenders. It didn’t help that he missed the last six games with a broken foot.

3. Despite a few bright moments in nine starts last season, Denard Robinson is not an every-down back. But he can be a viable regular presence as a gadget weapon—think someone cut along the thread of Sproles/Spiller/Bush only with a tad more versatility and a tad less pure running formidability.

4. Cornerback Aaron Colvin’s performance could carry a lot of weight in how Jacksonville’s defense fares. A highly touted prospect entering 2014, Colvin fell to the fourth round of the draft after tearing his ACL at a Senior Bowl practice. He became Jacksonville’s primary slot defender down the stretch last season. A slot corner who can match up underneath is a critical component of Bradley’s system.

5. Don’t be surprised if Ziggy Hood drops off the map. The former Steeler was much too quiet last season after signing a four-year, $16 million contract in free agency. Hood is best served as a three-technique in nickel, but the Jags have Sen’Derrick Marks, Abry Jones and even Jared Odrick as options for that role.
 

CGI_Ram

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I don't like the pieces on this Jags team. They look like a bad team to me.
 

OldSchool

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I don't like the pieces on this Jags team. They look like a bad team to me.

I have to agree, their biggest problem is the GM/Scouting. They just never seem to build a good team. Granted they seem somewhat snakebit but you never look at them after the draft and think they're getting better.
 

snackdaddy

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I don't like the pieces on this Jags team. They look like a bad team to me.

It'll be on Bortles' shoulders. So far he hasn't looked like a franchise quarterback as much as a couple other rookies like Carr and Bridgewater. I guess they could look on the bright side. He definitely looks better than Johnny Football.
 

VegasRam

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I would submit that, (except for Bradford), the Rams were not in any better shape than the Jags when Kroenke/Kahn bought their respective teams.
Who would you rather have? (Where the hell is that "stir-the-pot" smiley)?
 

OldSchool

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I would submit that, (except for Bradford), the Rams were not in any better shape than the Jags when Kroenke/Kahn bought their respective teams.
Who would you rather have? (Where the hell is that "stir-the-pot" smiley)?

And yet Kahn has been majority owner only 2 years less than the Rams. I'd say that roster isn't close to as good as the Rams and will need much more than 2 years to catch up. Though they do have a ton of cap space since they never spend even 89% of their cap. Give me the Rams roster and leadership any day of the week.
 

jrry32

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Not this year. But bold prediction here...Jaguars make the playoffs next year. Bortles will take some big steps over the second half of 2015 and prove himself to be a franchise QB in 2016. You heard it here first.

Except for the Yeldon pick, I really like their draft. I would have taken Beasley or Williams over Fowler but I think Fowler will be a good player if he comes back okay from the injury.

However, Cann was a steal in the 3rd, Greene was a steal in the 5th, and Bennett has the ability to be a very disruptive pass rusher at DT on passing downs. James Sample is also a solid all around S.
 

RAGRam

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I would submit that, (except for Bradford), the Rams were not in any better shape than the Jags when Kroenke/Kahn bought their respective teams.
Who would you rather have? (Where the hell is that "stir-the-pot" smiley)?

To be fair the Jags didn't have 5 1st round picks over a 3 year period to try and get it right, and let's not pretend that Kroenke has a team of world beaters, hell year 4 of this coaching staff and the consensus in the media/Vegas still seems to be that we still won't have a winning season.

Give me the guy who isn't holding a city that's been nothing but loyal to his constantly sub par product to ransom.
 

Merlin

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I think they have some solid pieces in place. Offense is the key for them next season just like with the Rams due to having a defensive head coach... Can Olson take charge and run that offense and get the talent playing fast and together?

Bortles is the real deal IMO. He's not a Manning type QB but he's a big guy with good athleticism that keeps his eyes downfield. Plays calm, I really like his game. I'm a USC homer so you know I love Marquis Lee at wideout and I also wanted the Rams to scoop Robinson out of Penn St so while they're not stocked at wideout there is some talent there.

They had a good draft... The first three rounds were wow getting some big needs filled. Not a huge fan of Yeldon or anything but man that was a big need fill and they also got one of my favorite defensive players in the draft as well as an OG/OC who will probably start and play well as a rookie. I don't think they have as much talent as, say, the Rams do of the teams that need to step it up, but their division is easier.

Back to Olson though... He might just be a QB coach. So like with the Rams their biggest question is their OC in my estimation.
 

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I feel sorry for Jacksonville...the fact is that Khan may have some passion but he doesn't have the deep pockets. He hasn't been great at hiring "football" people, and the team seems to be run about 1/2 way. Some example:
* the one year hire/fire of Mularkey (doesn't show lack of money...but that is just a weird flip for such a team)
* the famous picture of the Jags draft room
* the jump to get Justin B., which seemed to be just to spite the Rams
 

Elmgrovegnome

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I liked their last two drafts. They had bad luck with Fowler's injury. They are getting there but I really get the feeling that Caldwell didn't know which way to go at first. He lacked a plan and the team lacked an identity. He just started filling holes with the best players he thought he could get at a reasonable cost. I say reasonable cost because he wouldn't want to spend a ton on a player that may not be an ideal fit for his team. Bradley was a first time coach with a first time OC. Other than knowing what type of defensive players they needed I think the rest was a learning process. They are better off with Olsen IMO. He will at least get them on the road to assembling an offense with an identity.
 

RAGRam

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* the jump to get Justin B., which seemed to be just to spite the Rams

Of course you could just as easily claim that the decision to trade up one place in front of the New York Jets (the team that fired Schottenheimer) to get Tavon Austin was a move to spite the Jets. There's no proof of either being the case.
 

OldSchool

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I feel sorry for Jacksonville...the fact is that Khan may have some passion but he doesn't have the deep pockets. He hasn't been great at hiring "football" people, and the team seems to be run about 1/2 way. Some example:
* the one year hire/fire of Mularkey (doesn't show lack of money...but that is just a weird flip for such a team)
* the famous picture of the Jags draft room
* the jump to get Justin B., which seemed to be just to spite the Rams
I agree with what you're saying except for one thing, he's right near Kroenke on the wealthy owner list the dudes loaded. Their GM ironically enough was the guy coming up in Atlanta right behind Snead. He took Les' position of director of player personnel when Les came to the Rams. True he didn't have the benefit of the RG3 trade but he just doesn't seem to have had some of the same draft success that Les has had. I've liked the Jags and one of those other teams to root for since they came into the league and like the owner. Hope it turns around for them.
 

drasconis

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I agree with what you're saying except for one thing, he's right near Kroenke on the wealthy owner list the dudes loaded. Their GM ironically enough was the guy coming up in Atlanta right behind Snead. He took Les' position of director of player personnel when Les came to the Rams. True he didn't have the benefit of the RG3 trade but he just doesn't seem to have had some of the same draft success that Les has had. I've liked the Jags and one of those other teams to root for since they came into the league and like the owner. Hope it turns around for them.


I take it back had not realized his wealth had grown so much....back in 2010 when he was getting ready to buy the Rams his worth was much lower (about $2b) and there were questions on how much he would be leveraged to buy the team....looks like the last few years have been VERY good to him. I apologize I should have looked up his current worth rather than assume it had stayed similar.
 

OldSchool

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I take it back had not realized his wealth had grown so much....back in 2010 when he was getting ready to buy the Rams his worth was much lower (about $2b) and there were questions on how much he would be leveraged to buy the team....looks like the last few years have been VERY good to him. I apologize I should have looked up his current worth rather than assume it had stayed similar.

Yeah last I looked he was at 5.5 billion less than a billion behind Kroenke. They both keep doing well, it seems owning pro teams is good for most people. The Davis family never seemed to to gain anything though.
 

LesBaker

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I'm another one that thinks Bortles has potential. Who knows if he lives up to it not every player does, but he could become a good QB.

When I watched highlights he looked like a typical rookie and threw some dumb INT's but that always happens, even to the best of the best when they are rookies. He's got the tools and he looks the part sometimes. If he pans out the Jags will win some games but their problem is they will be trying to get past Indy, and that's a BIG hurdle right now.