Okay, we got Gurley... Doesn't matter.

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CGI_Ram

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At least according to this piece.

This article is a couple of years old and might have been posted before. But I found it an interesting read while doing some research for my post here;

http://www.ramsondemand.com/threads...-rule-changes-to-help-the-running-game.42949/

Basically, if you can't pass the ball, you can't win in today's NFL. Yeah, yeah, yeah... That's a blanket statement and not 100% true, but the article supports success passing the ball equals wins.

----

https://thepowerrank.com/2014/01/10/which-nfl-teams-make-and-win-in-the-playoffs/

Before the Super Bowl, Bill Belichick told his Giants defense to let Thurman Thomas rush for 100 yards.

As David Halberstam writes in Education of a Coach, it was a tough sell before the 1991 Super Bowl against Buffalo. The New York Giants played a physical defense that prided itself on not allowing 100 yard rushers.

No matter, the short, stout coach looked straight into the eyes of Lawrence Taylor and Pepper Johnson and said, “You guys have to believe me. If Thomas runs for a hundred yards, we win this game.”

Just in case his players didn’t listen, Belichick took it upon himself to ensure Thomas got his yards. He took out a defensive lineman and linebacker and replaced these large bodies with two defensive backs. In football lingo, the Giants played a 2-3-6 defense designed to struggle against the run.

Did Bill Belichick go insane? I certainly thought so when I first read this story years ago.

However, analytics is on Belichick’s side. Let me explain.

Visual shows the importance of passing over rushing

When it comes to winning in the NFL, passing is king. Rushing hardly matters.

To quantify this, our football obsessed culture must look past misleading statistics such as rush yards per game. Teams with the lead tend to run the ball to take time off the clock. Any team can rush for 100 yards if they run it 50 times.

To measure true skill, it is better to look at efficiency metrics like yards per attempt. A team can’t fake their way to 5 yards per carry by running the ball more.

Here, efficiency for passing and rushing is defined as yards gained per attempt on offense minus yards allowed per attempt on defense. Higher values indicate more team strength. Sacks count as pass attempts, and these negative yards lower pass efficiency on offense.

The visual shows the pass and rush efficiency during the regular season for all NFL playoff teams from 2003 through 2012.



From the left panel, playoff teams excel in passing, both throwing the ball on offense and preventing the pass on defense. Only 15 of 120 playoff teams in this era allowed more yards per pass attempt than they gained.

The visual also highlights teams that played in the Super Bowl. Eight of the ten Super Bowl champions were among the NFL’s elite in pass efficiency. However, excellence in the air does not guarantee playoff success. The New York Giants in 2007 and Baltimore in 2012 won the Super Bowl despite subpar pass efficiency.

Rushing hardly matters in the NFL
While the importance of passing in the NFL will not surprise anyone, the insignificance of rushing might. The visual for rush efficiency shows playoff teams as a random scatter of positive and negative values for their regular season statistics. A strong run game on offense and defense does not help a team make the playoffs.

Moreover, teams with a high rush efficiency do not suddenly become clutch in the playoffs. Almost half of the teams that played in the Super Bowl allowed more yards per carry than they gained. In 2006, Indianapolis won the Super Bowl while having the worst rush efficiency in the NFL. Green Bay in 2010 and the New York Giants in 2011 weren’t much better.

A guessing game of a team’s wins
Running the ball does not affect winning as much as you think. To illustrate this point, consider this guessing game. Suppose you want to guess how many games a team will win during the regular season. Without any other data, it makes sense to guess 8, the average number of wins in a 16 game season.

From 2003 through 2012, this estimate would be wrong by 3.1 wins. In technical jargon, 3.1 is the standard deviation of actual wins from the guess of 8. In normal people language, it says 2 of 3 teams will be within 3.1 wins of the guess. About two thirds of NFL teams won between 5 and 11 games between 2003 and 2012.

With the rush efficiency for each team, how much better does your guess get? The right panel of the visual below shows how rush efficiency relates to wins for every NFL team from 2003 through 2012. Simple linear regression gives the best fit line through the data.



The regression line gives a new guess about the number of games a team will win. For example, suppose a team has a rush efficiency of 0.6 yards per carry. Instead of guessing 8 wins for this team, the line gives 8.7 wins for this team.

How much better are these new guesses? Not much. The error only drops from 3.1 wins to 3.03 wins. In technical jargon, rush efficiency explains only 4.4% of the variance in wins. You might as well guess randomly.

The results get better using pass efficiency, as shown in the left panel. The error in estimating wins drops from 3.1 to 1.96. Pass efficiency explains 62% of the variance in wins in the NFL. The strong relationship is clear from the visual.

In college football, rush efficiency correlates more strongly with wins than in the NFL. Teams like Alabama, Stanford and Wisconsin have won with a power running game and a physical front seven on defense. The insignificance of running the ball is unique to the NFL.

Analytics gives a broad view of how passing and rushing affect winning. But to dig deeper, let’s look at specific teams and their strengths in these areas.

Indianapolis Colts
Under the leadership of GM Bill Polian and QB Peyton Manning, the Colts had a remarkable run from 2003 through 2010. They won at least 12 games each year before slacking off with 10 wins in 2010.

They achieved success through the air, ranking in the top 8 in pass efficiency each year. Peyton Manning and his offense played the bigger role, but the pass defense helped out some years. The Colts ranked in the top 10 in pass defense (yards allowed per attempt) from 2007 through 2009.

However, Indianapolis was really bad in the run game. Only once in this era (2007) did they gain more yards per carry than they allowed. As mentioned before, they were dead last in the NFL in rush efficiency in 2006 when they beat Chicago in the Super Bowl.

New England Patriots
New England won 125 games, 2 Super Bowls and played in 2 others during the 10 seasons covered by the visual. They followed the same script as Indianapolis: strong in passing, weak in rushing.

From 2003 through 2012, New England ranked in the top 10 in pass efficiency in each year except 2008 and 2012. In 2008, QB Tom Brady got hurt in the first game of the season. New England ended the season 13th in yards gained per pass attempt and did not make the playoffs, the only time this happened during these 10 years.

However, New England has never cracked the top 10 in rush efficiency. Coach Bill Belichick might not have seen the data presented here, but he gets the futility of rushing in the NFL. This understanding extends as far back as his days as defensive coordinator for the Giants.

Indianapolis and New England have built their teams around passing at the expense of rushing. They, along with New Orleans of recent seasons, have had success in winning games and Super Bowls. Now let’s look at teams that excel at rushing.

Minnesota Vikings
More than any other team, the Vikings dominate the ground game. They feature RB Adrian Peterson on offense and have tackles Pat and Kevin Williams clogging up the middle on defense. For the 6 years between 2007 and 2012, Minnesota has finished 1st in rush efficiency 4 of those years.

However, this strength has led to ups and downs in wins. Minnesota went 3-13 in 2011 despite leading the NFL in rush efficiency. The next season, they led the NFL again behind a monster season from Peterson, who made a remarkable return from knee surgery. The Vikings had 10-6 record that season.

The Viking’s best season over this stretch came in 2009. They finished 12th in rush efficiency that season. The difference? A QB named Brett Farve came out of retirement to play for Minnesota. The Vikings finished 7th in yards gained per pass attempt. They went 12-4 and came within a late turnover against New Orleans of playing in the Super Bowl.

San Francisco
The Niners started winning games when coach Jim Harbaugh became coach in 2011. However, they had their strengths before he arrived. Behind DE Justin Smith and LB Patrick Willis, San Francisco had an elite run defense. From 2007 through 2012, they never finished worse than 8th in yards allowed per carry.

This run defense didn’t help them win much the first 4 seasons, as the Niners won only 26 games. The pass defense never finished better than 15th during this time.

When Harbaugh arrived in 2011, San Francisco drafted LB Aldon Smith, a pass rush monster out of Missouri. They also signed CB Carlos Rogers, who had the first Pro Bowl season of his career in 2011. The Niners have finished 9th and 3rd in pass defense in 2011 and 2012 respectively. This resulted in 24 wins during these two seasons.

How to evaluate NFL statistics
In Super Bowl XXV, Bill Belichick’s plan to let Thurman Thomas rush for 100 yards worked, maybe too well. Against a small defense designed to slow down the pass, Thomas ran for 135 yards on 15 carries, a staggering 9 yards per carry. In the second half, he broke off a 31 yard run for a touchdown.

The game ended when Bills kicker Scott Norwood sent a field goal attempt wide right. The Giants won the Super Bowl 20-19.

The Giants did not win the game solely because of Belichick’s defensive plan. The offense generated two long scoring drives in the second half that took time off the clock. And I would bet my life savings Belichick did not want his defense to allow that 31 yard touchdown run to Thomas.

But, as Halberstam discusses in Education of a Coach, Belichick did want the Bills to pick up small gains on the ground if it meant keeping Jim Kelly from throwing the ball. He understood that rushing means almost nothing to winning in the NFL.

If you’re going to remember anything from this article, it should be this: look at a team’s passing instead of rushing numbers to determine whether they will win games.
 

den-the-coach

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Okay Rams were smart to draft Gurley now let's be aggressive and trade up and land our Field General for the next 15 years. Hopefully the Browns draft Bosa or take Goff and then the Rams should pounce trade up with the Ravens and draft Carson Wentz!

Wentz is my guy and I'm going all in, Size, arm strength, intelligence and a blue collar story will be just what the Doctor ordered for this franchise that has lacked a competent field general for far too long.
 

nighttrain

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Okay Rams were smart to draft Gurley now let's be aggressive and trade up and land our Field General for the next 15 years. Hopefully the Browns draft Bosa or take Goff and then the Rams should pounce trade up with the Ravens and draft Carson Wentz!

Wentz is my guy and I'm going all in, Size, arm strength, intelligence and a blue collar story will be just what the Doctor ordered for this franchise that has lacked a competent field general for far too long.
And Rams need for Gurley to study films of Faulk, he saved Warner many times
train
 

Faceplant

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I am worried that Fisher just doesn't believe the evidence that sits right in front of him. Is he so stubborn that he thinks this team will get it done with just a running game??
 

nighttrain

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I think OP said QB Chase Daniel is going to be available, no big splash, but worth a look.
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Roman Snow

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So Bilicheat is a genius because Norwood's kick sailed right by 18"?

I'm focused on the writer, and his point, CGI. I agree with the general point that you have to have a consistent passing game.

Guys get way too much credit for things that are outside of their control. If Norwood makes that kick, is Bilicheat roundly criticized for a failed strategy? His defense allowed the Bills to drive- with their passing game- down the field into scoring position every bit as much as ours did in the 2001-2002 Super Bowl against his Cheatriots.

Humor me here. Say Norwood makes his kick and Vinatieri misses his. The Rams had the momentum. We probably win in overtime. Flip two wins into losses for the genius! No. These are games. Fate. Don't say luck. Just like "Karma" it is an invention of man, desperate to explain life.

So then Jim Kelly wins his first Super Bowl attempt. Maybe relaxed, he wins another. Either way, his legacy is not one of frustration. He is a Super Bowl winner. Stress brings on disease. Would he still have gotten sick? Who knows? God knows. But we can't live by "what ifs".

I, for one am glad we have Gurley. Our passing game will be the focus this off-season.
 

CGI_Ram

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  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #7
So Bilicheat is a genius because Norwood's kick sailed right by 18"?

I'm focused on the writer, and his point, CGI. I agree with the general point that you have to have a consistent passing game.

Guys get way too much credit for things that are outside of their control. If Norwood makes that kick, is Bilicheat roundly criticized for a failed strategy? His defense allowed the Bills to drive- with their passing game- down the field into scoring position every bit as much as ours did in the 2001-2002 Super Bowl against his Cheatriots.

Humor me here. Say Norwood makes his kick and Vinatieri misses his. The Rams had the momentum. We probably win in overtime. Flip two wins into losses for the genius! No. These are games. Fate. Don't say luck. Just like "Karma" it is an invention of man, desperate to explain life.

So then Jim Kelly wins his first Super Bowl attempt. Maybe relaxed, he wins another. Either way, his legacy is not one of frustration. He is a Super Bowl winner. Stress brings on disease. Would he still have gotten sick? Who knows? God knows. But we can't live by "what ifs".

I, for one am glad we have Gurley. Our passing game will be the focus this off-season.

Well said! (y)
 

RaminExile

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Yes and no for me...there is a difference if you're ELITE running - for 150 yards rather than 100. Gurley won about 3 games by himself last year.
 

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Gurley matters...and two of the last three Super Bowls were won with great defenses and so-so offenses that were not world beaters..There are only so many elite QB's, so the rest of the teams have to go this route to compete
 

DaveFan'51

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Okay Rams were smart to draft Gurley now let's be aggressive and trade up and land our Field General for the next 15 years. Hopefully the Browns draft Bosa or take Goff and then the Rams should pounce trade up with the Ravens and draft Carson Wentz!

Wentz is my guy and I'm going all in, Size, arm strength, intelligence and a blue collar story will be just what the Doctor ordered for this franchise that has lacked a competent field general for far too long.
Just one question. In this scenario, IF the Rams move up and take Wentz. Do you see him as a week #1 Starter in 2016!? IDK

Johnny%205.jpg
And I need input!!
 

den-the-coach

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IF the Rams move up and take Wentz. Do you see him as a week #1 Starter in 2016!?

Yes I do although trade Foles keep Keenum and then go from there. I believe strongly Wentz can start, but if you want to ease him in then fine, but in the end I believe he would beat out Keenum for the job.
 

Elmgrovegnome

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I think Keenum would start over Wentz or Lynch. Goff may be the only guy that Fisher would trust to start. Fisher does not like starting rookies early in the season.

I have been thinking about Gurley too, just before you put this article on here @CGI_Ram. The Vikings had/have Adrian Peterson and the Lions had Barry Sanders. Neither did or has done much of anything when it comes to sniffing the Superbowl. The Rams need more than Todd Gurley. He is a game changing runningback but without a good passing game the Rams are still very one dimensional on offense. The GSOT is a good example of what can happen on an offense when you have a great RB and a great passing game. The Vermiel lead Chiefs are too.
 

tempests

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Belichick went out and got Corey Dillon for a reason.

Throughout his coaching career his teams have continually excelled at stopping the run. The Patriots won those early 00s playoff battles against the Colts because they made a point of stopping the run first.

It you have a good RB but a lousy QB, you won't get anywhere., Edgerrin James was a huge asset for the Colts. That stretch run to James followed by the deep PA to Harrison was so deadly. You pair a top 10 RB with a top 10 QB, those are the offenses that are really hard to stop.
 

nighttrain

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Yes I do although trade Foles keep Keenum and then go from there. I believe strongly Wentz can start, but if you want to ease him in then fine, but in the end I believe he would beat out Keenum for the job.
i just dont want to see Foles on the field for the Rams ever again
trainm