Les Snead: Rams knew Nick Foles trade might fail

[leoram]

The move was financial. Bradford gambled and lost by believing in himself a bit too much. Getting hurt again in Philly didn't help. The Rams made a calculated gamble and it appears to have paid off.

While we all know the how and why of the Bradford for Foles trade and the draft capital acquired, none of us know how it will all result. Bradford COULD revelive his career ala Warner and vindicate his position. Goff could reinjure his throwing shoulder and wash out. But today, as it stands, it looks like the Rams traded an injury prone, expensive gamble for a promising, inexpensive talent for the next four or five years. If I was Snisher, I'd be happy with how it turned out thus far.

But the proof is in the pudding we've yet to taste...

X, let's talk podcast...

 

[blackbart]

They thought there was a chance he might have a miraculous recovery and gave him an extension that was much lower than if he had blown us all away. It didn't work and they knew that was a possibility.

They would hae kept Bradford if he and his agent had been reasonable, that didn't work either.

Now they are on to Goff who we all hope is the next superstar to guide the Rams for the next decade. However as in the case with Bradford just being the #1 pick does not guarantee superbowl wins or even playoffs. It's a crap shoot every year and they try to put the team in the best position for what they have to work with.

Its not like Madden Football where you get whoever you want at their best with no injuries.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Realizing there was no chance of competing against the stacked Cardinals and Seahawks without a viable quarterback, the Rams sent a treasure chest of picks to the Titans for draft's top spot.

I disagree with this. The draft damage of this trade will be over with next year and they will still have next years second rounder to work with. If they had given up one more first rounder then yeah that would be a big hit to the roster but it is only really one first round pick that is being traded.

 

[DenverRam]

rofl

 

[Akrasian]

I disagree with this. The draft damage of this trade will be over with next year and they will still have next years second rounder to work with. If they had given up one more first rounder then yeah that would be a big hit to the roster but it is only really one first round pick that is being traded.

One first rounder, two second rounders, two third rounders to move up.

If people are excited about the Rams' 4th and 6th round picks, then the higher picks would be expected to be a greater cost.

 

[OnceARam]

It was a good move. How else were we going to move on from Bradford? Because we were going to move on eventually.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

One first rounder, two second rounders, two third rounders to move up.

If people are excited about the Rams' 4th and 6th round picks, then the higher picks would be expected to be a greater cost.

I know they gave up two second and two thirds but how great are those picks? Snead hasn't exactly had any guaranteed success with either round. He is about league average there. Would he pick Janoris Jenkins, or Isaiah Pead, Lamarcus Joyner, or Brian Quick ? Success rate with second round picks is 50% and third round is 25%. Look what the Titans got with those picks? I easily trade those players for Goff. They swapped this year's first for the Titan's first so they still had a first round pick.

The only significant pick they gave up was next year's first round pick. First round picks usually have a 75% chance of getting a good NFL player. I would do that trade all day for Goff, or anyone that I thought was a franchise QB.

 

[Akrasian]

I know they gave up two second and two thirds but how great are those picks? Snead hasn't exactly had any guaranteed success with either round. He is about league average there. Would he pick Janoris Jenkins, or Isaiah Pead, Lamarcus Joyner, or Brian Quick ? Success rate with second round picks is 50% and third round is 25%. Look what the Titans got with those picks? I easily trade those players for Goff. They swapped this year's first for the Titan's first so they still had a first round pick.

The only significant pick they gave up was next year's first round pick. First round picks usually have a 75% chance of getting a good NFL player. I would do that trade all day for Goff, or anyone that I thought was a franchise QB.

50% chance of getting a good player with the 2nd rounder? So how is that evaluated? A Pro Bowler? A quality starter? An eventual okay starter? A key backup? The Rams need all of those, and the odds go up as you move down - and the odds picking higher are always better than picking lower, since you can still get the lower ranked player if you want,or trade down and get more picks.

People here are raving about the Rams' 4th, 6th round picks and their UDFAs. All those players would have been available earlier of course, along with a number of players who will be useful or better players for the teams that draft them. Taking players higher, and having more draft picks, increase the chances of hitting.

The Rams' misses early in the draft past seasons were mostly caused by picking potential great athletes over picking productive football players - but they seem to have moved away from that - getting Havenstein who you ignore in the 2nd round, for instance. The players they picked late in the draft this year are mostly productive types, with the exception of some late flyers.

I'm not saying they shouldn't have made the trade - that will depend on Goff naturally. I'm saying that acting like 2nd and 3rd rounders are not significant picks would not be agreed to by any NFL team. If you use a 2nd rounder on a player - even if you don't get a "good NFL player" loosely defined, you are much more likely to get a contributor than if you don't have that pick (or are picking later) - and teams need contributors all up and down their roster. While the costs of picking Goff can be overcome - there will be costs, as the team ages and gets more expensive, and there is less in the pipeline to fill holes cheaply, so depth will need to be either subpar or expensive free agents.

 

[-X-]

 

[Picked4td]

my understanding of the trade was they wanted to get a high pick from bradford, but also didnt want to start the season with any QB they had on the roster. Snisher have said that they took the Eagles offer because they got a starting QB with the high pick, which they viewed better than just a 1st rd pick they say they couldve got. So to me it seemed like the main goal was to get a high pick they could use to help draft a QB, not find a replacement in a deal for Bradford. They then went on to sign him to, in my opinion, an amazing low risk high reward deal. Not saying they never thought he was their long term answer, but I dont think there ever really put too many eggs into that basket. Personally I was never a fan of foles and would have preferred to just get a 1st, but I still think Snisher did a great job hedging their bets as they tried to do the seemingly impossible and find a franchise QB

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

50% chance of getting a good player with the 2nd rounder? So how is that evaluated? A Pro Bowler? A quality starter? An eventual okay starter? A key backup? The Rams need all of those, and the odds go up as you move down - and the odds picking higher are always better than picking lower, since you can still get the lower ranked player if you want,or trade down and get more picks.

People here are raving about the Rams' 4th, 6th round picks and their UDFAs. All those players would have been available earlier of course, along with a number of players who will be useful or better players for the teams that draft them. Taking players higher, and having more draft picks, increase the chances of hitting.

The Rams' misses early in the draft past seasons were mostly caused by picking potential great athletes over picking productive football players - but they seem to have moved away from that - getting Havenstein who you ignore in the 2nd round, for instance. The players they picked late in the draft this year are mostly productive types, with the exception of some late flyers.

I'm not saying they shouldn't have made the trade - that will depend on Goff naturally. I'm saying that acting like 2nd and 3rd rounders are not significant picks would not be agreed to by any NFL team. If you use a 2nd rounder on a player - even if you don't get a "good NFL player" loosely defined, you are much more likely to get a contributor than if you don't have that pick (or are picking later) - and teams need contributors all up and down their roster. While the costs of picking Goff can be overcome - there will be costs, as the team ages and gets more expensive, and there is less in the pipeline to fill holes cheaply, so depth will need to be either subpar or expensive free agents.

Charlie Casserly agrees with me. Look at round 2 and tell me how many very good players will be from that round? The Rams paid a mere pittance for the chance to get a future franchise QB.

 

[Adi]

It worked out good, traded away the most overpaid QB in the NFL, received a pick that allowed us to daft the future QB, and only had to withstand 1 season of horrible QB play from lifetime backups. The Browns would kill for that situation lol . I honestly think they are holding on to Foles till last second, 1 team is bound to take a chance on him.

 

[hotanez]

No, not really. They extended him in the event he DID succeed. That way it wouldn't cost a fortune the following year if he tore it up. If he tanked, the contract wouldn't be painful to dump, and they had an extra second round pick in the bag to use to find HIS replacement. It all just sounds like good planning and hedging of bets to me.

After reading the article I was thinking the same thing. The contract extension protected the team if Foles regained his probowl form. If he sucked he could be traded or cut. Snead is no dummy and IF Goff turns out to be a franchise QB he will look like a genius.

 

[FrankenRam]

I think the spin being foisted here is not as positive as it's being made out.....

1) The Rams weren't looking to trade Bradford. They were trying to negotiate a reduced contract.

2) It wasn't until other teams began calling them about SB8 that they began talking internally about it.
^^These 2 are almost verbatim what Snead said. ^^

3) Of the (apparent) various offers they received, they chose the Eagles deal as it provided them (potentially) a starting QB for yr to come to replace Bradford AND the 2nd round pick.
^^ Seemed like a worthwhile risk at the time. But they made it because they hoped Foles would return to something closer to his 2013 form than 2014. Risky, but understandable. ^^

4) They extended Foles when they did for the same reason the Eagles only gave SB8 a 2 yr deal....because there was enough doubt about his abilities that a 4-5yr deal for ' good starting QB $$' was not warranted based on 2014.
^^ A smart move.....in retrospect.^^

But that's where all the 'Les Snead is the smartest man in the room' stuff ends. There was nothing premeditated involved in all this that involves Goff. Maybe I'm misunderstanding what some here are saying, but anybody that implies that is putting some fairy tale spin on the situation.

Yes, OF COURSE they realized that if Foles didn't work out, they'd be looking for a QB again some time soon. Doesn't take a genius to figure that out.

But......they could not possibly have known if/when that would be.....if at all. They HAD to have hoped Foles would revert to the 2013 Foles...or something close to it to make that deal. You simply don't make that deal on a wing & a prayer....you make it because you think the odds are good it will work in your favor.

And you sure as h-e-double2sticks don't make it because you think "Well, even if it doesn't work out, we'll just use this 2nd rd pick to help us trade up to #1 next year and we'll get our QB then. That's just spin city if anyone believes that.

If anything, in retrospect, the whole Foles debacle can be chalked up to an ever growing list of high risk/reward moves Snisher have made that haven't panned out....see Jake Long, see Scott Wells, see the TampaBay guard they signed a couple yr ago, etc. In retrospect, they might have been better off taking the 1st rd pick for Bradford last yr.....assuming that was actually offered. IF that 1st rd pick would have been in this year's draft, they might have been able to move up for Goff this year for those 2 #1's and not a whole lot else.

Granted, there is a whole lot of IF's in that last paragraph, but none are any more far-fetched than thinking Les Snead is some sort of master personnel genius that planned all this get Goff stuff. He's good, but he ain't e=mc2 good.

 

[hotanez]

I think the spin being foisted here is not as positive as it's being made out.....

1) The Rams weren't looking to trade Bradford. They were trying to negotiate a reduced contract.

2) It wasn't until other teams began calling them about SB8 that they began talking internally about it.
^^These 2 are almost verbatim what Snead said. ^^

3) Of the (apparent) various offers they received, they chose the Eagles deal as it provided them (potentially) a starting QB for yr to come to replace Bradford AND the 2nd round pick.
^^ Seemed like a worthwhile risk at the time. But they made it because they hoped Foles would return to something closer to his 2013 form than 2014. Risky, but understandable. ^^

4) They extended Foles when they did for the same reason the Eagles only gave SB8 a 2 yr deal....because there was enough doubt about his abilities that a 4-5yr deal for ' good starting QB $$' was not warranted based on 2014.
^^ A smart move.....in retrospect.^^

But that's where all the 'Les Snead is the smartest man in the room' stuff ends. There was nothing premeditated involved in all this that involves Goff. Maybe I'm misunderstanding what some here are saying, but anybody that implies that is putting some fairy tale spin on the situation.

Yes, OF COURSE they realized that if Foles didn't work out, they'd be looking for a QB again some time soon. Doesn't take a genius to figure that out.

But......they could not possibly have known if/when that would be.....if at all. They HAD to have hoped Foles would revert to the 2013 Foles...or something close to it to make that deal. You simply don't make that deal on a wing & a prayer....you make it because you think the odds are good it will work in your favor.

And you sure as h-e-double2sticks don't make it because you think "Well, even if it doesn't work out, we'll just use this 2nd rd pick to help us trade up to #1 next year and we'll get our QB then. That's just spin city if anyone believes that.

If anything, in retrospect, the whole Foles debacle can be chalked up to an ever growing list of high risk/reward moves Snisher have made that haven't panned out....see Jake Long, see Scott Wells, see the TampaBay guard they signed a couple yr ago, etc. In retrospect, they might have been better off taking the 1st rd pick for Bradford last yr.....assuming that was actually offered. IF that 1st rd pick would have been in this year's draft, they might have been able to move up for Goff this year for those 2 #1's and not a whole lot else.

Granted, there is a whole lot of IF's in that last paragraph, but none are any more far-fetched than thinking Les Snead is some sort of master personnel genius that planned all this get Goff stuff. He's good, but he ain't e=mc2 good.

I will respond to your post since I called Snead a "genius". Maybe your response wasn't aimed at me but my point was about the trade. If the trade works out they look great but if Goff fails they will be fired. I don't think anybody here really thinks that Snead or the Rams thought when they made the trade for Foles it would equal they would move up to #1 slot and get Goff. I believe what Snead is saying maybe others don't. Only Snead really knows the truth.

 

[CGI_Ram]

Wow. I made that years ago. How the hell did you find that?

You also made this one, but it's older and I'm guessing you're not as proud of it.

 

[-X-]

I think the spin being foisted here is not as positive as it's being made out.....

1) The Rams weren't looking to trade Bradford. They were trying to negotiate a reduced contract.

2) It wasn't until other teams began calling them about SB8 that they began talking internally about it.
^^These 2 are almost verbatim what Snead said. ^^

3) Of the (apparent) various offers they received, they chose the Eagles deal as it provided them (potentially) a starting QB for yr to come to replace Bradford AND the 2nd round pick.
^^ Seemed like a worthwhile risk at the time. But they made it because they hoped Foles would return to something closer to his 2013 form than 2014. Risky, but understandable. ^^

4) They extended Foles when they did for the same reason the Eagles only gave SB8 a 2 yr deal....because there was enough doubt about his abilities that a 4-5yr deal for ' good starting QB $$' was not warranted based on 2014.
^^ A smart move.....in retrospect.^^

But that's where all the 'Les Snead is the smartest man in the room' stuff ends. There was nothing premeditated involved in all this that involves Goff. Maybe I'm misunderstanding what some here are saying, but anybody that implies that is putting some fairy tale spin on the situation.

Yes, OF COURSE they realized that if Foles didn't work out, they'd be looking for a QB again some time soon. Doesn't take a genius to figure that out.

But......they could not possibly have known if/when that would be.....if at all. They HAD to have hoped Foles would revert to the 2013 Foles...or something close to it to make that deal. You simply don't make that deal on a wing & a prayer....you make it because you think the odds are good it will work in your favor.

And you sure as h-e-double2sticks don't make it because you think "Well, even if it doesn't work out, we'll just use this 2nd rd pick to help us trade up to #1 next year and we'll get our QB then. That's just spin city if anyone believes that.

If anything, in retrospect, the whole Foles debacle can be chalked up to an ever growing list of high risk/reward moves Snisher have made that haven't panned out....see Jake Long, see Scott Wells, see the TampaBay guard they signed a couple yr ago, etc. In retrospect, they might have been better off taking the 1st rd pick for Bradford last yr.....assuming that was actually offered. IF that 1st rd pick would have been in this year's draft, they might have been able to move up for Goff this year for those 2 #1's and not a whole lot else.

Granted, there is a whole lot of IF's in that last paragraph, but none are any more far-fetched than thinking Les Snead is some sort of master personnel genius that planned all this get Goff stuff. He's good, but he ain't e=mc2 good.

Well thank you for straightening me out and helping me to realize how stupid I really am for looking at this differently.

Consider me edified.

(that sound you heard was my eyes rolling)

 

[FrankenRam]

I will respond to your post since I called Snead a "genius". Maybe your response wasn't aimed at me but my point was about the trade. If the trade works out they look great but if Goff fails they will be fired. I don't think anybody here really thinks that Snead or the Rams thought when they made the trade for Foles it would equal they would move up to #1 slot and get Goff. I believe what Snead is saying maybe others don't. Only Snead really knows the truth.

My post wasn't intended for anyone in particular. Just addressed what I perceived to be the general tenor of the discussion.

 

[kurtfaulk]

i wanted to bring this post back into the discussion.

it succinctly describes exactly what happened.

.