Jrry32 First Mock Off-Season

[jrry32]

Well, I told y'all that I wasn't getting into any of this until after the season. Unfortunately, our season is over. Fortunately, we made the playoffs. I haven't had time yet to sit down and evaluate many prospects, so I am basing much of this on what I saw from 2016 or heard from people whom I trust.
Cut
WR Tavon Austin
ILB Mark Barron

I don't see anyone trading us anything for Austin. Barron played well for us, but we can find a better fit for our scheme at a cheaper price.

Re-Sign/Extend
DT Aaron Donald - 6 years $120 million (extension)
CB Nickell Robey-Coleman - 5 years $30 million
S LaMarcus Joyner - 5 years $35 million
WR Sammy Watkins - 4 years $36 million
CB Trumaine Johnson - 5 years $60 million
S Cody Davis - 3 years $4.5 million
C John Sullivan - 1 year $2 million
DT Tyrunn Walker - 1 year $790,000
CB Troy Hill - ERFA
HB Malcolm Brown - ERFA
OLB Matt Longacre - RFA

I think we attempt to bring back our big FAs and succeed. The Watkins' contract might turn heads, but I don't think he's earned more.

Free Agency
OLB Aaron Lynch - 2 years $3 million
ILB Todd Davis - 4 years $20 million

Todd Davis was one of Wade's starting ILBs in Denver. He's a tough kid who isn't afraid to throw his body around in run support. Nigel Bradham, Preston Brown, and Zach Brown are a few other ILB options.

Aaron Lynch is an upside guy. He's shown flashes of great ability as a pass rusher. The question is if McVay and co. are willing to bring his character questions into the locker room. He's always had the potential to be a legitimate 6 to 10 sack per year edge rusher when his head is screwed on right.

Trade
Rams trade Round 1 Pick #23 and Round 6 Pick #20
Browns trade Round 2 Pick #3 and Round 3 Pick #1

Browns have a ton of picks in this year's draft. It makes a lot of sense for them to move around.

NFL Draft
Round 2 Pick #3 - Tim Settle NT Virginia Tech
Round 3 Pick #1 - Nick Nelson CB Wisconsin
Round 3 Pick #23 - Leighton Vander Esch ILB Boise State
Round 4 Pick #23 - Tyrell Crosby OT Oregon
Round 5 Pick #23 - Joe Ostman OLB Central Michigan
Round 6 Pick #21 - Arrion Springs CB/S Oregon
Round 6 Pick #23 - Scott Quessenberry C UCLA
Round 7 Pick #23 - Jordan Scarlett HB Florida

Projected Starters
QB: Jared Goff
HB: Todd Gurley
XWR: Sammy Watkins
ZWR: Robert Woods
SLWR: Cooper Kupp
TE: Gerald Everett
LT: Andrew Whitworth
LG: Rodger Saffold
C: John Sullivan
RG: Jamon Brown
RT: Rob Havenstein

SDE: Michael Brockers
NT: Tim Settle
DT: Aaron Donald
WOLB: Robert Quinn
WILB: Alec Ogletree
SILB: Todd Davis
SOLB: Matt Longacre
LCB: Trumaine Johnson
RCB: Kayvon Webster vs. Nick Nelson
SLCB: Nickell Robey-Coleman
FS: LaMarcus Joyner
SS: John Johnson III

K: Greg Zuerlein
P: Johnny Hekker
LS: Jake McQuaide

 

[OC--LeftCoast]

Does this mean you’re searching for another av?

I like the list, to me if I could fill just one position on the team, I would get a dominant inside LB whom you can count on to tackle, let 52 be our number 2 LB and what a defense we would have

 

[den-the-coach]

Does this mean you’re searching for another av?

His Tom & Jerry avatar was superior anyway!

 

[den-the-coach]

Tim Settle would be a day one starter at NT and if the Rams draft him in the 3rd round, he will rank up there with Kupp & Johnson from 2017 draft class....I'm good with the rest and I really like Scott Quessenberry from the neck up, but is a tad undersized at 298lbs, hence the 6th round grade..

@jrry32 would be something if they could bring back everyone and extend Donald too.

 

[StealYoGurley]

Solids. Crosby is probably my favorite tackle in the class. He has some injury problems, but I think he ends up going earlier when its all said and done because good tackles are in demand and hard to find.

IMO if Watkins doesn't get at least low-end WR1 money I think he settles for an incentive laden 1 year deal since he should be playing on a 5th year option anyway.

 

[jrry32]

Solids. Crosby is probably my favorite tackle in the class. He has some injury problems, but I think he ends up going earlier when its all said and done because good tackles are in demand and hard to find.

IMO if Watkins doesn't get at least low-end WR1 money I think he settles for an incentive laden 1 year deal since he should be playing on a 5th year option anyway.

He's only 24. I figured a deal that fell just short of WR1 money might interest him if it offered enough security but was short enough in length to allow him to hit FA again during his prime. But yea, I could see him taking a "prove it" deal like Alshon Jeffery did. However, if he really wants to remain here, I could see him taking something a little longer in length.

 

[Riverumbbq]

I like most everything other than retaining Tru Johnson, of course, our drafts are expectedly quite different. If required, I'd offer Watkins $50.mil for 5 years.

 

[thirteen28]

Before I cut Barron, I might pick up the phone and call Cleveland given that Williams is there and might take him on as an OLB. It's worth a shot anyway, and maybe that would be part of a trade for picks with them.

Sentimentally, I'd like to keep Barron, as he has done everything we've asked and has generally played well. But he and 'Tree are both undersized as 3-4 ILB's and I think we need at least one guy who is more stout at the point of attack than either of them. And Barron is a better fit as a 4-3 OLB.

That being said, in appreciation of what he's done, it might be more humane to cut him than trade him to Cleveland ...

 

[Mackeyser]

I like that mostly.

Think the contracts, especially the one for AD are way low. iirc, he was already offered $140M and turned it down. I've said repeatedly that I think it wasn't the money, but mitigating language like an opt-out clause. Pretty sure he's gonna set or be close to a record payday.

I think Joyner is gonna get bigger money and that Watkins will need a contract equal to Woods to stay. So, it's either gonna be $40M or nothing. That's my feeling, anyway.

Here's my dilemma.

With all these juniors and red-shirt sophomores declaring, we're going to see guys rise which means others who are really good will fall.

With the plethora of QBs that will undoubtedly go early and RBs being in the first round again, I think we may have a shot at Vita Vea.

My number one guy is Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa, but he's going to be a top 10 pick or close to it. If he drops, I run to the podium.

That said, if Vita Vea is there at 23, I don't hesitate. I take him. He's the only NT I see that's not only a day one starter, but on play after play, he collapses the pocket. He's simply too strong to be singled up. And if he is, the QB won't have anywhere to go.

I'm cooling on Payne a bit, so I might do your trade if he's still there. Payne is very good, but he gets washed out too much on double teams and we're either going undersized penetrator types with Westbrooks or legit NT. Vea has the size we need (here's hoping the Cowboys fall in love with Payne as an SEC guy)

Like most of your other picks.

Adding Todd Davis would be huge.

No way in hell I tough Aaron Lynch with a 10-foot pole.

He's only 24. I figured a deal that fell just short of WR1 money might interest him if it offered enough security but was short enough in length to allow him to hit FA again during his prime. But yea, I could see him taking a "prove it" deal like Alshon Jeffery did. However, if he really wants to remain here, I could see him taking something a little longer in length.

As I said in another post, I don't think Watkins runs the full tree and that Buffalo offense can't be overly difficult in that they rely on some pretty easy things. Think of the quality of WR they let go in Watkins AND Woods and they still made the playoffs without having a franchise QB salary to account for.

I hope Watkins stays so that he gets the coaching he needs because legit #1 receivers can run the whole tree and even if Watkins can and we've never seen it, he's not doing it or being asked. And we know he doesn't fully know the offense (and McVay moves fast so we may have to simply understand like in NE, we need to find guys that fit over prototypes)

 

[Mackeyser]

I would counter with something like this.

I think we need to replace Connor Barwin, add a starting level NT and add a CB.

NFL Draft
Round 1 Pick #23 - Sam Hubbard 3-4 OLB Ohio State
Round 3 Pick #23 - Tyrell Crosby OT Oregon
Round 4 Pick #23 - Kevin Toliver II CB LSU
Round 5 Pick #23 - Frank Ginda ILB San Jose State
Round 6 Pick #21 - Greg Gilmore NT LSU
Round 6 Pick #23 - Scott Quessenberry C UCLA
Round 7 Pick #23 - Akrum Wadley RB Iowa

Round 1 is likely to have enough risers and enough QBs and RBs taken (even if only 2 are taken) that it is unlikely that he's gone before we draft at #23. It's more likely that Vea and Payne are gone since the drop off between them and the next tier is pretty substantial. I like Settle, but not that high. The more I think about it, I think both Payne and Vea will be gone. The ONE big problem that has teams go to the 4-3 is the lack of NTs which is why I suspect with good ones there, teams will grab them. That leaves us with options. I think one of the two Clemson OLBs will be there, but I like Hubbard in coverage WAY better and he's got a really nice motor, speed and moves in getting after the QB.

After the Senior Bowl, I think we'll be lucky if Crosby lasts until the late 3rd.

I think Toliver drops because not enough teams play man and he didn't look good in off-coverage. Considering we're trying to find MORE guys who play man/zone, he falls nicely to us. Snead has connections in the SEC. We'll know if Toliver is worth it or not.

Ginda is a tackling MACHINE. 173 tackles in a season that led the FBS, 13 tfl, 3 passes batted, 2 sacks and 3ff. Just shy of 6' and not the fastest, he just gets to the ball and tackles people. But his lack of SPARQ scores lower his stock.

I like Gilmore about as much as Settle, but at a much better price.

I like Quessenberry and his versatility.

Wadley is a really nice change of pace back for Gurley. No idea how the league sees him, but he could drop or rise a bit. If he's there, I like him. He's also a strong special teams player which you want at this level.

Of course all of this will change with the combine and Senior Bowl...

 

[TexasRam]

To each his own but I am not spending money on Watkins. I would spread that money a little more to Sullivan, NRC and Joyner who seem to be a little underpaid in your scenario compared to what they might get on the free market. I need those guys back big time. I also need a TE in FA.

Watkins 2 TD drops in the playoff game was the last straw for me. A lot of WR's make those plays. The long 50 yard bomb right through his hands and the 4th down drop in the end zone. He is a great guy and could fetch much more in FA then where I value him. His production was piss poor this year and he is horrible in traffic or adjusting to balls in the air. Next man up. I am giving Cooper, Thomas and Reynolds a shot. Yes he had 8 TD's but the bulk of those were TD's anyone could make. I maybe franchise tag him as some have suggested.

Conceptually, I like your draft. NT CB ILB and OT early parts of the draft and moving around with trades for extra picks within the first 3 rounds is a great plan. I don't follow college close enough to make any comments on those specific players, I usually start reading a lot of reports and watching tape after the season ends. But we definitely could use upgrading our run defense with a NT and some ILBers. I am not a fan at all of Ogletree and was scratching my head when they signed him to an extention. We definitely need to build Offensive tackle and CB depth.

I would also keep my eye out in the draft for a RB in the later rounds. If Gurley goes down, knock on wood we don't have anyone that can make big plays, and I also want to extend his career by using a two or more back approach like Atlanta, New Orleans, Philly, and New England does. May take a RB before a second CB if I have the following locked up: Tru, Webster, NRC, Hill, Peterson, Nelson.

 

[jrry32]

To address a few comments:
NRC - He's a 5'8" slot CB. Those guys don't get paid a lot. Orlando Scandrick, Captain Munnerlyn, and Buster Skrine are three similar CBs. As you can see, NRC's contract is right in line with theirs. I played it safe with him. We might be able to keep him for less considering we signed him for nothing this past off-season.

Joyner - He's an undersized safety. Those guys also don't get paid a lot. The way safety contracts have broken down, the elite safeties get paid $10+ million per year. The good safeties get paid around $6 million to $8 million per year. I gave Joyner a contract that is comparable to the one that Rodney McLeod signed.

Sullivan - We signed him for less than a million last year. He's an aging player who has had major injury issues in the very recent past. He's not going to get paid a lot.

Watkins - He's getting paid more per year than Woods, but he's taking a shorter deal to hit FA a second time while he's still in his prime in order to get that elusive third contract. There's no chance that I franchise tag him. That guarantees him $16+ million for 2018.

 

[TexasRam]

To address a few comments:
NRC - He's a 5'8" slot CB. Those guys don't get paid a lot. Orlando Scandrick, Captain Munnerlyn, and Buster Skrine are three similar CBs. As you can see, NRC's contract is right in line with theirs. I played it safe with him. We might be able to keep him for less considering we signed him for nothing this past off-season.

Joyner - He's an undersized safety. Those guys also don't get paid a lot. The way safety contracts have broken down, the elite safeties get paid $10+ million per year. The good safeties get paid around $6 million to $8 million per year. I gave Joyner a contract that is comparable to the one that Rodney McLeod signed.

Sullivan - We signed him for less than a million last year. He's an aging player who has had major injury issues in the very recent past. He's not going to get paid a lot.

Watkins - He's getting paid more per year than Woods, but he's taking a shorter deal to hit FA a second time while he's still in his prime in order to get that elusive third contract. There's no chance that I franchise tag him. That guarantees him $16+ million for 2018.

OK yea no franchise tag for sure then. I saw some poster mention a franchise tag and thought it was 6 Million, I must have misread it and now that you mention it 6 Million is way off for an average of the top 5 WR's.

Whatever it takes to sign Sullivan we need to do it. Even as a stop gap. If he is willing to come back that cheap so be it.

I see your point on NRC but he doubles as a backup outside CB when needed. Again whatever the market sets I match it.

I am sure a few teams put Joyner closer to that Elite 10 million per status based on his breakout year at safety In which he was the highest rated safety according to a few sites measuring stick. There are some teams with a crapload of cash to blow.

 

[den-the-coach]

I would counter with something like this.

I think we need to replace Connor Barwin, add a starting level NT and add a CB.

NFL Draft
Round 1 Pick #23 - Sam Hubbard 3-4 OLB Ohio State

FWIW's I usually leave the draft to people like yourself, @jrry32 , @OldSchool @LACHAMP46 @jakebogen95 & @Memphis Ram etc....However, when it comes to Ohio State players I have only missed on one player over the years as to their production at the next level and that player was Vernon Gholston, I thought he was going to special...That being posted don't understand the hubbub about Hubbard, watching every game he's played, IMHO, he's ordinary....Yes, made some plays, but I felt that was because of the talent around him and also the history of producing game changers at the next level, IMHO, Hubbard is not that.

Hubbard is an overachiever and I'm not sure he has the moves necessary to be an effective pass rusher at the next level...Will he give you everything he has and play every down like it's his last? Well, Yes, however, IMHO, I see him as a Grant Wistrom without Wistrom's speed and that's on the high end.

 

[Memento]

Just a question: how much money do you allocate to McQuaide? He's a free agent this year.

The rest I'm sold on.

 

[jrry32]

Just a question: how much money do you allocate to McQuaide? He's a free agent this year.

The rest I'm sold on.

Somewhere in the $1.5 to $2 million range.

 

[OregonRamsFan]

Jrry32, Great job on the mock draft. You rock. Lots of time invested there!!

I’m pretty much paying AD whatever he wants as long as 3 year opt out clause is NOT included and it’s for 6 years or more. We need AD on our team!
JMHO: I’m not so secretly thinking he’d like to play for his home town Pittsburgh, all the time knowing Belichick could start a bidding war should he get a 3 yr. opt out clause. Big payday. So we gots to pay da man.

I DON’T want us to play against him.

BTW: Do you think I could get in as the Rams water boy for $1.2M? I’d take a 3 year deal. Ha ha.

 

[Mackeyser]

FWIW's I usually leave the draft to people like yourself, @jrry32 , @OldSchool @LACHAMP46 @jakebogen95 & @Memphis Ram etc....However, when it comes to Ohio State players I have only missed on one player over the years as to their production at the next level and that player was Vernon Gholston, I thought he was going to special...That being posted don't understand the hubbub about Hubbard, watching every game he's played, IMHO, he's ordinary....Yes, made some plays, but I felt that was because of the talent around him and also the history of producing game changers at the next level, IMHO, Hubbard is not that.

Hubbard is an overachiever and I'm not sure he has the moves necessary to be an effective pass rusher at the next level...Will he give you everything he has and play every down like it's his last? Well, Yes, however, IMHO, I see him as a Grant Wistrom without Wistrom's speed and that's on the high end.

I felt the same way about Chris Long coming out.

Maybe this is me trying to make up for Long. And in my defense, Long really did have crappy footwork coming out of Virginia...

 

[Farr Be It]

That being said, in appreciation of what he's done, it might be more humane to KILL him than trade him to Cleveland ...

Fify pal.

Ginda is a tackling MACHINE. 173 tackles in a season that led the FBS, 13 tfl, 3 passes batted, 2 sacks and 3ff. Just shy of 6' and not the fastest, he just gets to the ball and tackles people. But his lack of SPARQ scores lower his stock.

Agreed. My nephew Austin basically played the same position for the Nevada Wolfpack this year. Ginda just kept racking up the tackles every week, as I followed the stat sheets. Ginda ended up around 179 total, setting a conference record. The dude is a beast.

Just for comparison, the next closest guy came in at 141, with Austin finishing 6th with 112. (Although Austin did finish AHEAD of your boy Ginda, in the all-important category of TFL with 14.5 -3rd in Conference- over Ginda's 13. Also 4.5 sacks and a fumble recovery.)
@RamFan503 and I saw my nephew make 21 tackles against Air Force earlier this year.:eek:

*Also, Austin and I were talking during the holidays, and he (a Raider fan) would LOVE to get a chance to play for Sean McVay. I think we may see a number of undrafted free agents with the same thought process. We have a very attractive, up and coming team. This may serve us well, for some of these late bloomers, and fringe talents that become good players in this league. They may chose to sign with us over other teams.

I don't know how much of a long shot it would be, but you know how stoked I would be to have my blood in horns!!

Playing it cautious.

 

[fearsomefour]

Somewhere in the $1.5 to $2 million range.

Lets go with ye ol vet minimum....he was about $800 K last year, don't know what that increases to.