Snaz
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I'd take a flyer on Tretter at only 26. If he can be had at a decent price, or prove it deal.
Jake Ellenbogen's 2017 top positional players Free Agency prediction
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I'd take a flyer on Tretter at only 26. If he can be had at a decent price, or prove it deal.
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As long as its a deal that benefits us I'm okay with it. I don't want to be giving him his market value.
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John Sullivan was a sleeper pick in 2008 draft I really liked. He was solid when turning on Senior Bowl tape.He played with McVay,but did not start. So maybe he does not make sense, but there is solid knowledge of his talent.
Ryan Groy worked under Kromer last year replacing Eric Wood in Buffalo .
Patrick Lewis & Josh LaRibeus are poor man FA's that know the system.
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https://theringer.com/the-nfls-top-12-free-agents-d1dcfdc2d23c#.sd0l45jtw
Who are the NFL’s top free agents at each position?
By Danny Kelly
Depending on your perspective, we’re either still or only about a week away from the beginning of free agency on March 9. Despite all the fanfare surrounding it each year, the majority of free-agent signees will become role players or not even end up making the 53-man roster.
And while continuity is key across the league and locking big money into a player before you’ve seen him function within your team’s specific scheme is always a high-risk game, there are plenty of good players who hit the market each year. Sign the right ones, and they can take your team to a new level. Just ask the New York Giants defense.
So, before the first megadeal gets doled out, let’s take a look at the best available player at each position. We’re not counting guys who’ll likely get the franchise tag, and we’re not worried about the best values, either.
All of the guys on this list are in for big paydays, and it’s almost guaranteed that some of them will sign deals that look bad from the get-go. But if we could start a team tomorrow that consisted of only 2017 free agents, this would be the core.
Tackle: Andrew Whitworth, Cincinnati Bengals
At 35, Whitworth’s no more than a short-term option for any team that signs him, but he remains one of the league’s best players at one of its premium positions. Andy Dalton’s blindside protector surrendered just 14 quarterback pressures in 561 pass-blocking snaps in 2016, the fewest in the NFL at that spot, per Pro Football Focus.
He’s not just consistently sound in his protection, either; he’s been consistently available for the Bengals throughout his entire career, missing just two starts in the past eight seasons. High-quality, dependable, and experienced left tackles don’t grow on trees, so Whitworth will be in high demand despite his advanced age.
Guard: Kevin Zeitler, Cincinnati Bengals
The guard spot might be the deepest position group in free agency this year, featuring Green Bay’s T.J. Lang, Dallas’s Ronald Leary, Detroit’s Larry Warford, and Tennessee’s Chance Warmack. But Zeitler sits above them all both in overall talent and potential.
At 26 years old, he’s still heading into his prime, but he’s already one of the NFL’s most balanced performers in both run blocking and in pass protection. Zeitler hasn’t missed a game in two seasons and allowed only one sack in that time. He was also a top-five run-blocking guard in 2016, per Pro Football Focus. Plus, he’s only going to get better.
Center: J.C. Tretter, Green Bay Packers
Tretter has started just 10 games and has only 1,001 snaps under his belt in four seasons in Green Bay, but the way he performed in limited action last year — he started the Packers’ first seven games before an MCL injury derailed a strong start — makes him the most intriguing center on the market.
Tretter’s an obvious injury risk, as he’s missed big parts of three of the four seasons he’s been a pro, but he’s still just 26 years old. He graded well in the run game (seventh among centers) and as a pass blocker (12th) per Pro Football Focus, and he’s athletic enough to play every position on the line for a zone running team.
Tretter’s best spot is in the middle, but he’s also filled in at guard and even acquitted himself well with meaningful snaps at left tackle for Green Bay in 2015. He possesses the kind of versatility that teams covet, and that’ll be enough to make some teams look past his injury history.
Quarterback: Brian Hoyer, Chicago Bears
Hoyer tops this list because there’s just no way the Redskins are going to let Kirk Cousins out of the building. The former Patriot, Cardinal, Brown, Texan, and Bear has started 31 games in his eight-year career, including a relatively solid stretch as the starter for Houston in 2015 when he led the Texans to a 5–4 record in nine starts, throwing 19 touchdowns and just seven interceptions while compiling a 91.4 passer rating.
Of course, Hoyer’s disastrous performance in Houston’s loss to the Chiefs in the wild-card round, in which he threw four picks and lost a fumble, led to his release that offseason. After signing a one-year, $2 million deal in Chicago to be Jay Cutler’s backup, Hoyer was forced into action due to an injury to Cutler’s thumb. In six games, he completed 67 percent of his passes for 1,445 yards, six touchdowns and no picks for a 98 passer rating before a broken forearm ended his 2016 season prematurely.
In fact, the 31-year-old has completed 64 percent of his passes with a 24–6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 95 passer rating in his past 16 regular-season appearances.
He’s not an aggressive downfield thrower and he’s not the type of guy who’s going to put an offense on his back and carry it, but if you’re signing Hoyer, you’re signing him to be a bridge to some currently inaccessible future. Right now, there’s no one better suited for that role.
Running Back: Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers
The Steelers aren’t going to let Le’Veon Bell hit the open market — you can just stop fantasizing about what he’d look like in your team’s offense right now — and after him, the options at the running back spot consist mostly of over-the-hill veterans and situation-specific specialists.
LeGarrette Blount posted 1,161 yards and 18 touchdowns for the Patriots last year, but like fellow free agents DeAngelo Williams and Rashad Jennings, he’s coming off of a season on the wrong side of 4.0 yards per carry, and he’s going into 2017 on the wrong side of 30 years old. Danny Woodhead, Andre Ellington, and Jacquizz Rodgers could provide value in certain roles, but they don’t have lead-back potential.
And so Eddie Lacy offers the most upside of any player in this group. Lacy won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award and was second-team All Pro in 2013, then followed that up with another 1,000-yard campaign for Green Bay in 2014.
His performance dropped off significantly in 2015 as his weight — rumored to be as high as 260 pounds — became a problem, but after dropping about 15–20 pounds over the offseason, thanks to P90X workouts with creator Tony Horton, 2016 looked like it was going to be his bounce-back year.
Through five games, he’d averaged 5.1 yards per carry on 71 totes and had racked up 19 broken tackles, fourth best in the NFL at the time, per Pro Football Focus. But an ankle injury suffered in October eventually required surgery and ended his season.
Still, that small sample size provided a glimpse of what the bruising, tackle-breaking back can provide when healthy and in shape. His weight will be a major factor — and he may get only a one-year deal because of his history — but if he comes into the season at around 235 pounds (and stays there), the 26-year-old could be a steal for a team looking for a sustaining lead back.
Wide Receiver: Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears
Jeffery comes with a lot of red flags — he missed half of the 2015 season to multiple injuries and got popped for a four-game PED suspension last year — but the 27-year-old playmaker makes up for those concerns with his elite catch radius and his red zone threat.
The 6-foot-3, 218-pound, sixth-year pass catcher needs to get paired with a quarterback who throws with aggressiveness and anticipation. Jeffery’s not incredibly fast or quick, and isn’t going to get much separation in and out of his breaks, but with preternatural body control in the air and an understanding of positioning to block out defenders and catch tight-quarter passes down the sideline and in the end zone, he’s as close to the prototype of a true no. 1 in his prime that you’ll find in this market.
He’ll need to stay on the field, but he’s the only wideout available who can get his new team 85-plus catches, 1,000-plus yards, and double-digit touchdown totals in 2017.
Tight End: Martellus Bennett, New England Patriots
Bennett gutted out ankle, shoulder, and knee injuries throughout the year to catch 55 passes for 701 yards and seven touchdowns for the Patriots, and the 10th-year veteran is a blocking force in the run game as well. Bennett may be slightly past his prime at this point — he turns 30 next month — but you’re not going to find many tight ends in the league (free agents or not) that offer the type of versatility he provides in both the passing game and the rushing attack.
With Bennett on the field, his team has the luxury of using him in-line as a blocker, asking him to release into a route, or splitting him outside to run an isolation route against a smaller defensive back or slower linebacker.
Any offense he’s in, whether the play’s going to him or not, is going to be much less predictable. And as defenses tailor their personnel groups to defend against either the run or the pass more frequently, an offense that can do either out of any personnel group or formation has a big advantage.
Interior Defensive Line: Calais Campbell, Arizona Cardinals
With Carolina’s Kawann Short likely to be slapped with a franchise tag, this pseudo-award goes to Campbell. The 10th-year veteran provides size and length rarely seen on the interior of a defense: He utilizes his 6-foot-8 frame and vine-like arms not only to out-leverage and swat away offensive linemen when rushing the passer, but to control offensive linemen and wrap up runners in the ground game.
Campbell’s list of suitors will be long; he’s made his career manning two gaps as a five-technique (lining up on the outside shoulder of the tackle) on Arizona’s three-man front, but also lines up as a three-technique (on the outside shoulder of the guard) enough to be a nice fit on a four-man front.
Whether he’s sitting back and taking on two gaps or shooting forward in a one-gap system, Campbell’s one of the most disruptive trench players in the league. In 2016, he registered 8.0 sacks, 56 pressures, six passes defensed, and two forced fumbles. It’s the kind of production you can rely on, too, as Campbell’s missed only two games in the past four years.
Edge Rusher: Melvin Ingram, Los Angeles Chargers
New York’s Jason Pierre-Paul and Arizona’s Chandler Jones will likely receive franchise tag designations, so that brings us to Ingram. A first-round pick out of South Carolina in 2012, he shed concerns over his short arms and overcame a slow start as a Charger to notch 18.5 sacks, 11 passes defensed, and seven forced fumbles in the past two seasons.
Last year, Ingram really blossomed as a complete player, recording 72 quarterback pressures and 33 run stops. He’s become a three-down player who can get upfield rushing the passer just as smoothly as he can set the edge against the run or drop back into coverage. (He was asked to cover in almost a quarter of the snaps he played.)
His versatility in multiple roles keeps him on the field in every situation, and it keeps the opposing offenses guessing. Offensive tackles tasked with blocking him never know whether he’s coming upfield or dropping back, which muddles their responsibilities, and quarterbacks have to be aware of him suddenly dropping back into a passing lane.
Inside Linebacker: Dont’a Hightower, New England Patriots
There aren’t many middle linebackers like Hightower left in the NFL: The 265-pound beast in the middle of the field has been driven toward extinction by pass-happy offenses that feast on slow-footed defenders. But the Patriots star has stayed on the field because of his unique coverage ability for a guy his size.
Hightower makes plays all over the field; he hits like a ton of bricks on runs up the middle, he rushes off the edge like a defensive end in certain spots (including a crucial strip sack in the Super Bowl); and he runs in coverage on tight ends and running backs in the flats.
He emerged as one of New England’s emotional leaders the past two seasons, and he’d be a three-down impact player in any defense.
A $14–15 million franchise price tag may prove to be too rich for the Patriots to give to a middle linebacker (a number that factors in the top contracts of pass-rushing outside linebackers and would make Hightower the highest-paid middle linebacker in the NFL), and his injury history may be a concern in contract negotiations (he’s played a full season only once in five years), which means he’s likely to hit the open market.
But he’ll get plenty of interest around the league because he can fit in any scheme.
Safety: Tony Jefferson, Arizona Cardinals
The Chiefs will almost certainly re-sign or place the franchise tag on Eric Berry, and that leaves the rest of the free-agent safety group with very few complete players. If you’re looking for help with coverage of the deep middle, New England’s Duron Harmon might be your guy, and if you’re looking for a run-defending thumper, Jacksonville’s Johnathan Cyprien is the ticket.
But if you want someone who can do a little bit of everything, from run defense to coverage responsibilities, Cardinals safety Tony Jefferson is the best bet.
Jefferson is an excellent run defender — he missed just five tackles on 98 attempts in 2016, as he led Arizona in tackles — and he improved significantly against the pass after slimming down in the offseason to increase explosiveness and speed. He held up in coverage on tight ends and running backs, so Arizona was able to keep him on the field against pretty much any offensive look.
(He played over 86 percent of the Cardinals’ snaps in 2016, fourth most on the team.) He was effective as a blitzer as well, grabbing two sacks on the year, which tied him for third in the league among defensive backs. Jefferson’s a battle-tested, versatile defensive back that defensive coordinators can deploy in a variety of roles, and at 25 years old, he’s got room to improve.
Cornerback: A.J. Bouye, Houston Texans
Bills free-agent corner Stephon Gilmore might have a better overall skill set, but his inconsistent play last year makes him a boom-or-bust prospect. Bouye’s stable, steadfast performance in 2016 makes him the safest bet for consistent cornerbacking.
The former undrafted free agent started the season fourth on the Houston depth chart, but injuries pushed him into the starting lineup, where he flourished. Bouye’s physicality (his strength near the line of scrimmage and his ability to redirect receivers) and his ball skills are his best attributes, and he racked up 16 passes defensed and an interception in 15 games.
Including the playoffs, Bouye allowed just 50.5 percent of passes thrown his way to be caught, per Pro Football Focus, and while he’s best utilized on the outside, he has experience lining up inside too. Early in the year Houston even used him as a tight end coverage specialist.
Bouye’s just 25 years old and still entering the prime years of his career, and while he’d fit in any defense, his size (6-foot, 186 pounds) and aggression make him an ideal fit for a scheme that asks him to press at the line of scrimmage often. Bouye’s at his best when he’s disrupting timing and making it hard for opposing receivers to get into their routes.
Who are the NFL’s top free agents at each position?
By Danny Kelly
Depending on your perspective, we’re either still or only about a week away from the beginning of free agency on March 9. Despite all the fanfare surrounding it each year, the majority of free-agent signees will become role players or not even end up making the 53-man roster.
And while continuity is key across the league and locking big money into a player before you’ve seen him function within your team’s specific scheme is always a high-risk game, there are plenty of good players who hit the market each year. Sign the right ones, and they can take your team to a new level. Just ask the New York Giants defense.
So, before the first megadeal gets doled out, let’s take a look at the best available player at each position. We’re not counting guys who’ll likely get the franchise tag, and we’re not worried about the best values, either.
All of the guys on this list are in for big paydays, and it’s almost guaranteed that some of them will sign deals that look bad from the get-go. But if we could start a team tomorrow that consisted of only 2017 free agents, this would be the core.
Tackle: Andrew Whitworth, Cincinnati Bengals
At 35, Whitworth’s no more than a short-term option for any team that signs him, but he remains one of the league’s best players at one of its premium positions. Andy Dalton’s blindside protector surrendered just 14 quarterback pressures in 561 pass-blocking snaps in 2016, the fewest in the NFL at that spot, per Pro Football Focus.
He’s not just consistently sound in his protection, either; he’s been consistently available for the Bengals throughout his entire career, missing just two starts in the past eight seasons. High-quality, dependable, and experienced left tackles don’t grow on trees, so Whitworth will be in high demand despite his advanced age.
Guard: Kevin Zeitler, Cincinnati Bengals
The guard spot might be the deepest position group in free agency this year, featuring Green Bay’s T.J. Lang, Dallas’s Ronald Leary, Detroit’s Larry Warford, and Tennessee’s Chance Warmack. But Zeitler sits above them all both in overall talent and potential.
At 26 years old, he’s still heading into his prime, but he’s already one of the NFL’s most balanced performers in both run blocking and in pass protection. Zeitler hasn’t missed a game in two seasons and allowed only one sack in that time. He was also a top-five run-blocking guard in 2016, per Pro Football Focus. Plus, he’s only going to get better.
Center: J.C. Tretter, Green Bay Packers
Tretter has started just 10 games and has only 1,001 snaps under his belt in four seasons in Green Bay, but the way he performed in limited action last year — he started the Packers’ first seven games before an MCL injury derailed a strong start — makes him the most intriguing center on the market.
Tretter’s an obvious injury risk, as he’s missed big parts of three of the four seasons he’s been a pro, but he’s still just 26 years old. He graded well in the run game (seventh among centers) and as a pass blocker (12th) per Pro Football Focus, and he’s athletic enough to play every position on the line for a zone running team.
Tretter’s best spot is in the middle, but he’s also filled in at guard and even acquitted himself well with meaningful snaps at left tackle for Green Bay in 2015. He possesses the kind of versatility that teams covet, and that’ll be enough to make some teams look past his injury history.
Quarterback: Brian Hoyer, Chicago Bears
Hoyer tops this list because there’s just no way the Redskins are going to let Kirk Cousins out of the building. The former Patriot, Cardinal, Brown, Texan, and Bear has started 31 games in his eight-year career, including a relatively solid stretch as the starter for Houston in 2015 when he led the Texans to a 5–4 record in nine starts, throwing 19 touchdowns and just seven interceptions while compiling a 91.4 passer rating.
Of course, Hoyer’s disastrous performance in Houston’s loss to the Chiefs in the wild-card round, in which he threw four picks and lost a fumble, led to his release that offseason. After signing a one-year, $2 million deal in Chicago to be Jay Cutler’s backup, Hoyer was forced into action due to an injury to Cutler’s thumb. In six games, he completed 67 percent of his passes for 1,445 yards, six touchdowns and no picks for a 98 passer rating before a broken forearm ended his 2016 season prematurely.
In fact, the 31-year-old has completed 64 percent of his passes with a 24–6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 95 passer rating in his past 16 regular-season appearances.
He’s not an aggressive downfield thrower and he’s not the type of guy who’s going to put an offense on his back and carry it, but if you’re signing Hoyer, you’re signing him to be a bridge to some currently inaccessible future. Right now, there’s no one better suited for that role.
Running Back: Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers
The Steelers aren’t going to let Le’Veon Bell hit the open market — you can just stop fantasizing about what he’d look like in your team’s offense right now — and after him, the options at the running back spot consist mostly of over-the-hill veterans and situation-specific specialists.
LeGarrette Blount posted 1,161 yards and 18 touchdowns for the Patriots last year, but like fellow free agents DeAngelo Williams and Rashad Jennings, he’s coming off of a season on the wrong side of 4.0 yards per carry, and he’s going into 2017 on the wrong side of 30 years old. Danny Woodhead, Andre Ellington, and Jacquizz Rodgers could provide value in certain roles, but they don’t have lead-back potential.
And so Eddie Lacy offers the most upside of any player in this group. Lacy won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award and was second-team All Pro in 2013, then followed that up with another 1,000-yard campaign for Green Bay in 2014.
His performance dropped off significantly in 2015 as his weight — rumored to be as high as 260 pounds — became a problem, but after dropping about 15–20 pounds over the offseason, thanks to P90X workouts with creator Tony Horton, 2016 looked like it was going to be his bounce-back year.
Through five games, he’d averaged 5.1 yards per carry on 71 totes and had racked up 19 broken tackles, fourth best in the NFL at the time, per Pro Football Focus. But an ankle injury suffered in October eventually required surgery and ended his season.
Still, that small sample size provided a glimpse of what the bruising, tackle-breaking back can provide when healthy and in shape. His weight will be a major factor — and he may get only a one-year deal because of his history — but if he comes into the season at around 235 pounds (and stays there), the 26-year-old could be a steal for a team looking for a sustaining lead back.
Wide Receiver: Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears
Jeffery comes with a lot of red flags — he missed half of the 2015 season to multiple injuries and got popped for a four-game PED suspension last year — but the 27-year-old playmaker makes up for those concerns with his elite catch radius and his red zone threat.
The 6-foot-3, 218-pound, sixth-year pass catcher needs to get paired with a quarterback who throws with aggressiveness and anticipation. Jeffery’s not incredibly fast or quick, and isn’t going to get much separation in and out of his breaks, but with preternatural body control in the air and an understanding of positioning to block out defenders and catch tight-quarter passes down the sideline and in the end zone, he’s as close to the prototype of a true no. 1 in his prime that you’ll find in this market.
He’ll need to stay on the field, but he’s the only wideout available who can get his new team 85-plus catches, 1,000-plus yards, and double-digit touchdown totals in 2017.
Tight End: Martellus Bennett, New England Patriots
Bennett gutted out ankle, shoulder, and knee injuries throughout the year to catch 55 passes for 701 yards and seven touchdowns for the Patriots, and the 10th-year veteran is a blocking force in the run game as well. Bennett may be slightly past his prime at this point — he turns 30 next month — but you’re not going to find many tight ends in the league (free agents or not) that offer the type of versatility he provides in both the passing game and the rushing attack.
With Bennett on the field, his team has the luxury of using him in-line as a blocker, asking him to release into a route, or splitting him outside to run an isolation route against a smaller defensive back or slower linebacker.
Any offense he’s in, whether the play’s going to him or not, is going to be much less predictable. And as defenses tailor their personnel groups to defend against either the run or the pass more frequently, an offense that can do either out of any personnel group or formation has a big advantage.
Interior Defensive Line: Calais Campbell, Arizona Cardinals
With Carolina’s Kawann Short likely to be slapped with a franchise tag, this pseudo-award goes to Campbell. The 10th-year veteran provides size and length rarely seen on the interior of a defense: He utilizes his 6-foot-8 frame and vine-like arms not only to out-leverage and swat away offensive linemen when rushing the passer, but to control offensive linemen and wrap up runners in the ground game.
Campbell’s list of suitors will be long; he’s made his career manning two gaps as a five-technique (lining up on the outside shoulder of the tackle) on Arizona’s three-man front, but also lines up as a three-technique (on the outside shoulder of the guard) enough to be a nice fit on a four-man front.
Whether he’s sitting back and taking on two gaps or shooting forward in a one-gap system, Campbell’s one of the most disruptive trench players in the league. In 2016, he registered 8.0 sacks, 56 pressures, six passes defensed, and two forced fumbles. It’s the kind of production you can rely on, too, as Campbell’s missed only two games in the past four years.
Edge Rusher: Melvin Ingram, Los Angeles Chargers
New York’s Jason Pierre-Paul and Arizona’s Chandler Jones will likely receive franchise tag designations, so that brings us to Ingram. A first-round pick out of South Carolina in 2012, he shed concerns over his short arms and overcame a slow start as a Charger to notch 18.5 sacks, 11 passes defensed, and seven forced fumbles in the past two seasons.
Last year, Ingram really blossomed as a complete player, recording 72 quarterback pressures and 33 run stops. He’s become a three-down player who can get upfield rushing the passer just as smoothly as he can set the edge against the run or drop back into coverage. (He was asked to cover in almost a quarter of the snaps he played.)
His versatility in multiple roles keeps him on the field in every situation, and it keeps the opposing offenses guessing. Offensive tackles tasked with blocking him never know whether he’s coming upfield or dropping back, which muddles their responsibilities, and quarterbacks have to be aware of him suddenly dropping back into a passing lane.
Inside Linebacker: Dont’a Hightower, New England Patriots
There aren’t many middle linebackers like Hightower left in the NFL: The 265-pound beast in the middle of the field has been driven toward extinction by pass-happy offenses that feast on slow-footed defenders. But the Patriots star has stayed on the field because of his unique coverage ability for a guy his size.
Hightower makes plays all over the field; he hits like a ton of bricks on runs up the middle, he rushes off the edge like a defensive end in certain spots (including a crucial strip sack in the Super Bowl); and he runs in coverage on tight ends and running backs in the flats.
He emerged as one of New England’s emotional leaders the past two seasons, and he’d be a three-down impact player in any defense.
A $14–15 million franchise price tag may prove to be too rich for the Patriots to give to a middle linebacker (a number that factors in the top contracts of pass-rushing outside linebackers and would make Hightower the highest-paid middle linebacker in the NFL), and his injury history may be a concern in contract negotiations (he’s played a full season only once in five years), which means he’s likely to hit the open market.
But he’ll get plenty of interest around the league because he can fit in any scheme.
Safety: Tony Jefferson, Arizona Cardinals
The Chiefs will almost certainly re-sign or place the franchise tag on Eric Berry, and that leaves the rest of the free-agent safety group with very few complete players. If you’re looking for help with coverage of the deep middle, New England’s Duron Harmon might be your guy, and if you’re looking for a run-defending thumper, Jacksonville’s Johnathan Cyprien is the ticket.
But if you want someone who can do a little bit of everything, from run defense to coverage responsibilities, Cardinals safety Tony Jefferson is the best bet.
Jefferson is an excellent run defender — he missed just five tackles on 98 attempts in 2016, as he led Arizona in tackles — and he improved significantly against the pass after slimming down in the offseason to increase explosiveness and speed. He held up in coverage on tight ends and running backs, so Arizona was able to keep him on the field against pretty much any offensive look.
(He played over 86 percent of the Cardinals’ snaps in 2016, fourth most on the team.) He was effective as a blitzer as well, grabbing two sacks on the year, which tied him for third in the league among defensive backs. Jefferson’s a battle-tested, versatile defensive back that defensive coordinators can deploy in a variety of roles, and at 25 years old, he’s got room to improve.
Cornerback: A.J. Bouye, Houston Texans
Bills free-agent corner Stephon Gilmore might have a better overall skill set, but his inconsistent play last year makes him a boom-or-bust prospect. Bouye’s stable, steadfast performance in 2016 makes him the safest bet for consistent cornerbacking.
The former undrafted free agent started the season fourth on the Houston depth chart, but injuries pushed him into the starting lineup, where he flourished. Bouye’s physicality (his strength near the line of scrimmage and his ability to redirect receivers) and his ball skills are his best attributes, and he racked up 16 passes defensed and an interception in 15 games.
Including the playoffs, Bouye allowed just 50.5 percent of passes thrown his way to be caught, per Pro Football Focus, and while he’s best utilized on the outside, he has experience lining up inside too. Early in the year Houston even used him as a tight end coverage specialist.
Bouye’s just 25 years old and still entering the prime years of his career, and while he’d fit in any defense, his size (6-foot, 186 pounds) and aggression make him an ideal fit for a scheme that asks him to press at the line of scrimmage often. Bouye’s at his best when he’s disrupting timing and making it hard for opposing receivers to get into their routes.
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Pretty much completely agree with this! Just cause I have guys getting paid more than the top guys doesn't mean I think they are the top. If I could have anyone free of charge in this free agency class guaranteed it would be Bouye for me. I think he's the next big thing at CB. Hoping minimal experience with Wade Phillips is enough to lure him to the Rams.
InnovatedMind
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I love Garcon, I think he'll be the perfect fit of size, catch radius, and toughness that we need to offset some of the finesse receivers we have.
Do you think though, that Garcon could be a productive #1 for a few years on our team? He's already 31? I like him, I just worry that he might decline.
I also agree that Woods would be a good pickup to offset the age factor, he's a very underrated and young receiver... But is that the best option out there? I hear Brandon Marshall might need a new team, would Brandon Marshall be the best case scenario out of all?
He's not young but he's still elite and has that toughness and catch radius that Garcon has. Maybe if he declines in a few years, he can be still as productive as Garcon is today?
Do you think though, that Garcon could be a productive #1 for a few years on our team? He's already 31? I like him, I just worry that he might decline.
I also agree that Woods would be a good pickup to offset the age factor, he's a very underrated and young receiver... But is that the best option out there? I hear Brandon Marshall might need a new team, would Brandon Marshall be the best case scenario out of all?
He's not young but he's still elite and has that toughness and catch radius that Garcon has. Maybe if he declines in a few years, he can be still as productive as Garcon is today?
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https://theringer.com/the-four-rules-of-nfl-free-agency-896742242e29#.yqgcghd0k
The Four Rules of NFL Free Agency
An insider’s guide to gaming the player market
Michael Lombardi
The Ringer
Did you know the 2017 NFL season starts in two weeks? Maybe you won’t have your fantasy draft for another six months, but the real season kicks off when teams start rebuilding, repairing, and restoring their rosters with signings, trades, and draft picks. Some of those moves will inevitably turn out perfectly fine.
But with so many new coaches and decision-makers in power, as well as an unforgiving salary cap that has left more veterans unemployed than ever before, expect to see many more offseason decisions that make us say, “WHAT????”
Free agency comes first, usually with a frenzy of moves in the first few days. The media love grading those free-agency acquisitions based on how THEY assessed every team’s needs — like the website that gave last year’s Jags a “B+” because they “came into free agency looking to make a splash, and they have done just that.” Actually, the Jags’ only 2016 splash was firing head coach Gus Bradley after a road game in Houston.
That’s why you won’t see me grading free agency, as much as I enjoy reading everyone else’s takes. I don’t subscribe to the “collection of assets” school of thinking for free agents. My philosophy centers on a willingness to use every conceivable avenue to procure talent all year long — not just in March and April. Here are my four rules for free agency.
Rule No. 1: Then Is Then, Now Is Now
As fans, we have to forget past performance — consider Peter Frampton and his 1976 album Frampton Comes Alive!, which people my age had to own in order to look cool. You don’t know Peter Frampton? That is the point; Peter is so then. Signing a once-great player doesn’t magically restore him to his old greatness; if anything, guaranteed money might soften him more.
The Dolphins found out the hard way when they rescinded Olivier Vernon’s transition tag, hoping to replace his production with Mario Williams for half the cost. Whoops. Williams started five games, made nine tackles, collected a meager 1.5 sacks, and looked like a shell of himself.
The Dolphins released him last week. But Williams was also a nonfactor for the 2015 Bills: 15 starts, 15 tackles, and five sacks (and never drew double-teams). How was this a surprise?
Meanwhile, Vernon started all 16 games for the 2015 Dolphins, notching 41 tackles and 7.5 sacks; opponents actually had to plan for Vernon. The Giants seemingly overpaid for him last spring, but Vernon’s 2016 production (16 starts, 46 tackles, and 8.5 sacks) helped revive what became a stellar Giants defense.
Had the Dolphins kept Vernon to pair on the opposite side of Cameron Wake and an emerging Andre Branch, their dominating pass rush could have hidden their poor cornerback play. Maybe it’s dangerous to overpay good-but-not-great players; it’s certainly something that Bill Belichick has consistently avoided in New England.
But it’s much worse to overpay washed-up players. You’re draining your salary cap for no real reason.
A good current example: Adrian Peterson, once the league’s best running back … only now, it’s 2017, and injuries and a heavy workload have taken its toll. Maybe Peterson isn’t completely done as a productive NFL player, but Father Time is parked outside his house with the engine running. If he’s released by the Vikings, will a needy team reward him for past performance with a meaty deal?
History says yes. And it might even work for a few months. Declining players can fool teams by appearing young and vibrant in the offseason and even September and October. But guess what happens as the weather turns in November, December, and January, right when the games count most? Father Time throws them in the football hearse and drives away. Stay away from declining veterans.
Rule No. 2: Don’t Be Lucy
In the 1950s, the great Lucille Ball had a smash-hit television series called I Love Lucy. Lucy had a knack for getting into trouble. In one episode, Lucy loses her earrings in her bedroom and spends most of the episode trying to find them. When her husband Ricky comes home, he finds Lucy on the floor of their living room and asks what she’s doing.
She replies that she’s looking for her earrings. When Ricky asks where she lost them, Lucy tells him that it was the bedroom. Confused, Ricky wonders why she’s looking in the living room. And Lucy replies, “The light is much better out here.”
That exchange explains why so many NFL teams fumble in free agency — they search where the light is brightest instead of addressing their harshest needs. Remember the 49ers last spring? They brought in offensive guru Chip Kelly but kept an unwinnable Colin Kaepernick/Blaine Gabbert platoon. How could Kelly fix THAT?
And why would Kelly even take the gig without a promise to try to obtain a better quarterback? Besides selecting Louisiana Tech’s Jeff Driskel in the sixth round, the 49ers completely ignored their most glaring need. Within a year, they dumped Kelly and brought in Kyle Shanahan. You have a better chance of seeing Shanahan play his father at QB than you do of seeing him run Kaepernick and Gabbert back out for another year.
The 2016 Niners might as well be the 2017 Jags: new coach (Doug Marrone), new personnel decision-maker (Tom Coughlin), same pulsating problem at QB (Blake Bortles). Will they emulate the old Jags regime by praying that Blake Bortles will suddenly become good, despite overwhelming evidence that it’s never happening? Or will they address their most pressing need?
Despite all their recent praise of Bortles, my sense is that Coughlin’s brain trust already has studied enough film to realize they need another quarterback. But you never know. They might spend the spring crawling around in Lucy’s living room.
Rule No. 3: Behave Like Mike McDermott
Did Rounders really come out almost 20 years ago? It feels like yesterday when Mike McD (played by Matt Damon) battled Teddy KGB to pay off his buddy’s gambling debts. In the movie’s climactic scene, Mike McD spots a “tell” — the poker term for a change in behavior that gives clues about the player’s hand and tendencies in general.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsCzZE_y0so
Most agents will admit that if they have two teams willing to pay a king’s ransom for a free agent, they are extremely fortunate. Normally, it’s only one team. So they have to create the illusion of a second bidder to bump up the prices — a skill that many of them have mastered over the years. Clubs rarely realize their “tell.”
Using their press contacts, we learn that Free Agent X has “five visits lined up,” and that he’s “taking his time” before picking a team. It is not a complete fabrication, but those five teams aren’t playing poker with the same pile of chips. Maybe one team wants to go all in, but the other four are hanging around and hoping nobody has a killer hand (so they can steal the pot).
This is when emulating Mike McD helps. You HAVE to understand the market. You have to know the difference between an all-in team and a steal-the-pot team. Know your poker table and learn the players’ tells.
A good example from last spring: the Saints overpaying for yet another skill player while ignoring their porous defense. Who really wanted to pay Coby Fleener $36 million over five years with $18 million guaranteed?
Fleener delivered New Orleans eight starts and 50 catches; meanwhile, their defense kept getting torched partly because they shorted it by $36 million. Trust me, nobody else was ponying up that money for an oversize inside slot receiver. But the Saints ignored Fleener’s tell and lost the pot.
Another example: Any free agent who claims that he “won’t give the home team a discount,” like Jermaine Kearse did last month. Translation: “Please, make us an offer! We don’t have a good one brewing right now. HELP!”
Agents love drumming up the illusion of a developing market, and many times they do a brilliant job of fooling one or two teams. Especially the desperate ones. Some advice: Find your bargains at Costco, not during the first few days of free agency.
Only April brings the real discounts, once the supply and demand shifts and panic starts to set in with players and agents. Until then, know the tells. To paraphrase a famous line from Mike McD, if you can’t spot the sucker at the table, then you are the sucker.
Rule No. 4: Scout Inside Out, Not Outside In
This phrase comes from the legendary Bill Walsh, and right now, it’s one of the biggest reasons the Patriots compete for Super Bowls every year. The Patriots are terrific at understanding which players fit best in their system — it’s why they keep unearthing a never-ending supply of Chris Hogans, Alan Branches, and Kyle Van Noys. They scout inside out.
So many other franchises fail because they keep changing their schemes (and when they do, many of their players might not fit in the new one), or because they don’t understand their own scheme well enough to find and develop the right players for it. They scout outside in.
There’s no better example than Tavon Austin and the Rams. Did you know he’s their highest-paid player? He’s on the books for $15 million this season! That seems a little high for someone who scored 12 offensive touchdowns in four seasons; last year, he averaged 8.8 yards a catch, which would be fine if he was their backup tight end.
I keep hearing that the Rams believe new coach Sean McVay will figure out, finally, how to unleash Austin’s talents in the right offense. That’s the Rams front office scouting outside in — they see the playmaking talent, only no consistently productive scheme can highlight that talent.
Like Percy Harvin before him, Austin is an expensive accessory — like wearing a Rolex for show even though you can keep track of time on your phone. He can carry a play, not an offense.
Teams that succeed in free agency know exactly what their scheme requires at every position, then find players to fit those specific requirements. The Giants did it with defensive tackle Damon Harrison. The Falcons did with center Alex Mack.
The expensive deals they shelled out were definitely worth it, because Atlanta and New York scouted inside out. How many teams will emulate those big-ticket signings and find the perfect marriage of scheme, need, and player?
The Four Rules of NFL Free Agency
An insider’s guide to gaming the player market
Michael Lombardi
The Ringer
Did you know the 2017 NFL season starts in two weeks? Maybe you won’t have your fantasy draft for another six months, but the real season kicks off when teams start rebuilding, repairing, and restoring their rosters with signings, trades, and draft picks. Some of those moves will inevitably turn out perfectly fine.
But with so many new coaches and decision-makers in power, as well as an unforgiving salary cap that has left more veterans unemployed than ever before, expect to see many more offseason decisions that make us say, “WHAT????”
Free agency comes first, usually with a frenzy of moves in the first few days. The media love grading those free-agency acquisitions based on how THEY assessed every team’s needs — like the website that gave last year’s Jags a “B+” because they “came into free agency looking to make a splash, and they have done just that.” Actually, the Jags’ only 2016 splash was firing head coach Gus Bradley after a road game in Houston.
That’s why you won’t see me grading free agency, as much as I enjoy reading everyone else’s takes. I don’t subscribe to the “collection of assets” school of thinking for free agents. My philosophy centers on a willingness to use every conceivable avenue to procure talent all year long — not just in March and April. Here are my four rules for free agency.
Rule No. 1: Then Is Then, Now Is Now
As fans, we have to forget past performance — consider Peter Frampton and his 1976 album Frampton Comes Alive!, which people my age had to own in order to look cool. You don’t know Peter Frampton? That is the point; Peter is so then. Signing a once-great player doesn’t magically restore him to his old greatness; if anything, guaranteed money might soften him more.
The Dolphins found out the hard way when they rescinded Olivier Vernon’s transition tag, hoping to replace his production with Mario Williams for half the cost. Whoops. Williams started five games, made nine tackles, collected a meager 1.5 sacks, and looked like a shell of himself.
The Dolphins released him last week. But Williams was also a nonfactor for the 2015 Bills: 15 starts, 15 tackles, and five sacks (and never drew double-teams). How was this a surprise?
Meanwhile, Vernon started all 16 games for the 2015 Dolphins, notching 41 tackles and 7.5 sacks; opponents actually had to plan for Vernon. The Giants seemingly overpaid for him last spring, but Vernon’s 2016 production (16 starts, 46 tackles, and 8.5 sacks) helped revive what became a stellar Giants defense.
Had the Dolphins kept Vernon to pair on the opposite side of Cameron Wake and an emerging Andre Branch, their dominating pass rush could have hidden their poor cornerback play. Maybe it’s dangerous to overpay good-but-not-great players; it’s certainly something that Bill Belichick has consistently avoided in New England.
But it’s much worse to overpay washed-up players. You’re draining your salary cap for no real reason.
A good current example: Adrian Peterson, once the league’s best running back … only now, it’s 2017, and injuries and a heavy workload have taken its toll. Maybe Peterson isn’t completely done as a productive NFL player, but Father Time is parked outside his house with the engine running. If he’s released by the Vikings, will a needy team reward him for past performance with a meaty deal?
History says yes. And it might even work for a few months. Declining players can fool teams by appearing young and vibrant in the offseason and even September and October. But guess what happens as the weather turns in November, December, and January, right when the games count most? Father Time throws them in the football hearse and drives away. Stay away from declining veterans.
Rule No. 2: Don’t Be Lucy
In the 1950s, the great Lucille Ball had a smash-hit television series called I Love Lucy. Lucy had a knack for getting into trouble. In one episode, Lucy loses her earrings in her bedroom and spends most of the episode trying to find them. When her husband Ricky comes home, he finds Lucy on the floor of their living room and asks what she’s doing.
She replies that she’s looking for her earrings. When Ricky asks where she lost them, Lucy tells him that it was the bedroom. Confused, Ricky wonders why she’s looking in the living room. And Lucy replies, “The light is much better out here.”
That exchange explains why so many NFL teams fumble in free agency — they search where the light is brightest instead of addressing their harshest needs. Remember the 49ers last spring? They brought in offensive guru Chip Kelly but kept an unwinnable Colin Kaepernick/Blaine Gabbert platoon. How could Kelly fix THAT?
And why would Kelly even take the gig without a promise to try to obtain a better quarterback? Besides selecting Louisiana Tech’s Jeff Driskel in the sixth round, the 49ers completely ignored their most glaring need. Within a year, they dumped Kelly and brought in Kyle Shanahan. You have a better chance of seeing Shanahan play his father at QB than you do of seeing him run Kaepernick and Gabbert back out for another year.
The 2016 Niners might as well be the 2017 Jags: new coach (Doug Marrone), new personnel decision-maker (Tom Coughlin), same pulsating problem at QB (Blake Bortles). Will they emulate the old Jags regime by praying that Blake Bortles will suddenly become good, despite overwhelming evidence that it’s never happening? Or will they address their most pressing need?
Despite all their recent praise of Bortles, my sense is that Coughlin’s brain trust already has studied enough film to realize they need another quarterback. But you never know. They might spend the spring crawling around in Lucy’s living room.
Rule No. 3: Behave Like Mike McDermott
Did Rounders really come out almost 20 years ago? It feels like yesterday when Mike McD (played by Matt Damon) battled Teddy KGB to pay off his buddy’s gambling debts. In the movie’s climactic scene, Mike McD spots a “tell” — the poker term for a change in behavior that gives clues about the player’s hand and tendencies in general.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsCzZE_y0so
Most agents will admit that if they have two teams willing to pay a king’s ransom for a free agent, they are extremely fortunate. Normally, it’s only one team. So they have to create the illusion of a second bidder to bump up the prices — a skill that many of them have mastered over the years. Clubs rarely realize their “tell.”
Using their press contacts, we learn that Free Agent X has “five visits lined up,” and that he’s “taking his time” before picking a team. It is not a complete fabrication, but those five teams aren’t playing poker with the same pile of chips. Maybe one team wants to go all in, but the other four are hanging around and hoping nobody has a killer hand (so they can steal the pot).
This is when emulating Mike McD helps. You HAVE to understand the market. You have to know the difference between an all-in team and a steal-the-pot team. Know your poker table and learn the players’ tells.
A good example from last spring: the Saints overpaying for yet another skill player while ignoring their porous defense. Who really wanted to pay Coby Fleener $36 million over five years with $18 million guaranteed?
Fleener delivered New Orleans eight starts and 50 catches; meanwhile, their defense kept getting torched partly because they shorted it by $36 million. Trust me, nobody else was ponying up that money for an oversize inside slot receiver. But the Saints ignored Fleener’s tell and lost the pot.
Another example: Any free agent who claims that he “won’t give the home team a discount,” like Jermaine Kearse did last month. Translation: “Please, make us an offer! We don’t have a good one brewing right now. HELP!”
Agents love drumming up the illusion of a developing market, and many times they do a brilliant job of fooling one or two teams. Especially the desperate ones. Some advice: Find your bargains at Costco, not during the first few days of free agency.
Only April brings the real discounts, once the supply and demand shifts and panic starts to set in with players and agents. Until then, know the tells. To paraphrase a famous line from Mike McD, if you can’t spot the sucker at the table, then you are the sucker.
Rule No. 4: Scout Inside Out, Not Outside In
This phrase comes from the legendary Bill Walsh, and right now, it’s one of the biggest reasons the Patriots compete for Super Bowls every year. The Patriots are terrific at understanding which players fit best in their system — it’s why they keep unearthing a never-ending supply of Chris Hogans, Alan Branches, and Kyle Van Noys. They scout inside out.
So many other franchises fail because they keep changing their schemes (and when they do, many of their players might not fit in the new one), or because they don’t understand their own scheme well enough to find and develop the right players for it. They scout outside in.
There’s no better example than Tavon Austin and the Rams. Did you know he’s their highest-paid player? He’s on the books for $15 million this season! That seems a little high for someone who scored 12 offensive touchdowns in four seasons; last year, he averaged 8.8 yards a catch, which would be fine if he was their backup tight end.
I keep hearing that the Rams believe new coach Sean McVay will figure out, finally, how to unleash Austin’s talents in the right offense. That’s the Rams front office scouting outside in — they see the playmaking talent, only no consistently productive scheme can highlight that talent.
Like Percy Harvin before him, Austin is an expensive accessory — like wearing a Rolex for show even though you can keep track of time on your phone. He can carry a play, not an offense.
Teams that succeed in free agency know exactly what their scheme requires at every position, then find players to fit those specific requirements. The Giants did it with defensive tackle Damon Harrison. The Falcons did with center Alex Mack.
The expensive deals they shelled out were definitely worth it, because Atlanta and New York scouted inside out. How many teams will emulate those big-ticket signings and find the perfect marriage of scheme, need, and player?
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The King of the Free Agent Class is Named A.J. Bouye
The undrafted cornerback stunned the Texans with his 2016 production and now leads a group of relative unknowns about to cash in on the open market.
by Albert Breer
Photo: Thomas B. Shea/Getty Images
Believe it or not, Texans (for now) cornerback A.J. Bouye is eyeing a somewhat moderate purchase for March 9, when the figurative Brinks truck will show up in his driveway with a decidedly less moderate prize.
“Only thing I can think of is a truck with TVs in it,” Bouye said from his cellphone on Wednesday afternoon. “Then my daughter won’t have to scream at me because she doesn’t have her headphones in. She watches ‘Frozen’ two times a day. It’d be good just to let her watch that in the truck in peace.”
You can forgive the free agent-to-be if he’s still getting used to all this. After all, as recently as Oct. 2, Bouye was the fourth corner on his own team, coming off the bench to play just 37 percent of the Texans’ defensive snaps in a narrow win over the Titans, stuck behind a trio of former first-round picks at the position.
Just five months later, he’s likely to elicit a slew of “WOW” tweets and money-bag emojis when he becomes this year’s largely anonymous player to get filthy rich.
When I asked one AFC personnel man what Bouye would command in two weeks, the answer was a question: “What did Janoris Jenkins get again?” Another AFC personnel chief added, “Bouye will be the clear king of the class, assuming the guys we believe will be franchised actually are.”
And yes, “the king of the class” is as wide-eyed about this as you may be reading it.
“I was undrafted, and looking at who was in front of me before injuries happened it looked like a no-win situation,” Bouye says now. “When you have all those first-rounders in front of you, you’re just trying to take advantage of every opportunity. So I didn’t really envision this happening.”
In 2013 coming out of Central Florida, Bouye wasn’t invited to the scouting combine, then badly pulled a hamstring two weeks before his pro day. A cortisone shot and wrap to treat it weren’t enough to prevent a 4.5 40-yard dash there, which he suspects led to him slipping out of the draft all together.
Bouye wound up signing with Houston, which already had Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson on the roster. He reinjured the hamstring his rookie year, landed on IR that October, and bounced back with a solid 2014. But just four months after that season, the Texans drafted another corner, Kevin Johnson, in the first round.
In fact, if it weren’t for injuries to Jackson and Joseph in October, Bouye might never have gotten an extended look as a starter in Houston. But once that door opened, Bouye didn’t let it shut. He became the No. 1 corner and one of the best players on the NFL’s best defense, in on 296 of 298 snaps from Week 12 to Week 16 and every one of the Texans’ defensive snaps in the playoffs.
“All that [I went through] instilled something in me, it gave me a chip on my shoulder,” Bouye says. “When you’re a first-rounder, you have way more room to make mistakes, people make excuses for you, saying you’re growing or you’re learning. But as an undrafted guy, you have to be perfect.”
The Texans know the score here. Again, they’ve invested a lot at the position, and they aren’t one of those teams with tens of millions of cap dollars in wiggle room. Tagging him, as Bouye has been informed, would be difficult, with the corner figure expected to land well over $14 million.
“I talked to my agent, and I’m not mad that they probably won’t franchise me, just because of how much the franchise tag is for a corner,” Bouye said. “It’s a lot. At the same time, the situation in Houston, money-wise, there’s no telling what’s going to happen. At the end of the day, I know they want to bring me back, but they have other things they have to address, which I totally understand.”
With that established, the coaches and front office people in Houston are happy for a player whom most there describe as self-made, no matter where Bouye lands.
They all saw how he took advantage of the coaching of coordinator Romeo Crennel and secondary coach John Butler and assistant Anthony Midget, and the competitive environment with the well-pedigreed teammates in his position group.
They saw him beg to cover DeAndre Hopkins in practice, even after he became a starter. And they watched him get stronger and more confident, evident in how he now recognizes routes and challenges throws.
As one staffer said simply, “A.J. just constantly wanted to improve.”
The payoff came in his play. As Bouye sees it, that will continue to be the payoff here, and all that money coming March 9 is the bonus. So yeah, he has some plans. He’ll probably get that truck.
His dad—a former correctional officer who was once responsible for guarding/transporting John Gotti, T.I. and Mike Vick—had spinal surgery last year, so Bouye can help there. And he’ll probably throw some cash at the AAU team his dad works with, too.
But mostly, the plan is keep his foot in that door that swung open in October.
“Now that the time is around the corner, I need to start thinking about it, I can’t keep avoiding it,” he says with a laugh. “So it’s really just on what’s gonna happen with where I end up. Where am I gonna live? What team? What type of teammates? Really that’s it, because I know in the end I’m gonna be the same person.”