Is Aaron Donald ALREADY the best DT/NT in the NFL?

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junkman

Farewell to all!
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Before I get started, this is a Pro Football Focus thread. If you don't like PFF stats, don't trust them, don't believe their acumen, believe they are fundamentally flawed for whatever reason, I've heard the arguments, I don't want to hear it again. Just move along now, please, nothing to see here.

~~

So, our frenemies over at PFF are heaping their statistical praise on one of our own. This week, for the first time, Rams Nation's prize rookie Aaron Donald has crept to the top of the leaderboard for NFL DT/NTs.

** OPTIONAL READING. As a reminder of how PFF stats work, it works like golf scoring but upside down - that the higher the score, the better. A "par" for a play or a game is an even zero. Every snap you play, your score can go higher or lower. A good game might give you anywhere from +1 to a +2 where an incredible game could give you +8. I've seen as high as +14 for Quinn's game against Chicago last year. Same thing happens for bad games, where the worse your game, the lower your score. If you play consistently from snap to snap, the more snaps you have, the more positive (or negative) your score will be. PFF scores are also broken down into general categories like Pass Rush and Run Defense and Pass Coverage. Just like in a golf tournament, the numbers are accumulated from game to game.

Aaron Donald's aggregate overall PFF score of 16.5 leads all NFL DTs/NTs by a slight margin. Second best is Kawaan Short at 16.0, followed by Gerald McCoy at 15.8. I honestly don't care what the statistical measure is, that's some great company to be in.

Donald's run defense score of +9.6 is second in the NFL, while his pass rushing score of 5.1 is 10th best. This is out of 72 total DTs/NTs.

Donald's top ranking is even more impressive when you consider the relatively few snaps that Donald has had. If you normalize the rankings on a per snap basis, then Donald's lead widens among the full time DT/NTs, even though he falls 2nd overall to PFF score per snap to Ryan Davis who only comes in to rush the passer and has had 1/3 the snaps.

As one might expect for a rookie, Donald is improving. He hasn't had a single negative game the entire year. He's only had one negative category all year, which was pass rushing against Minnesota the first game. The general trend is up, where the Seattle game was his best game at +4.9

There is one more stat that jumps out at you when looking at Donald, a proprietary PFF stat called "Stops", which is a solo tackle or sack that constitutes an offensive failure. Not only does Donald have 14 stops, a very high number, but this is the same as his tackles and sacks (as tallied by PFF). That is, every time Donald has made a tackle or a sack, PFF considered it an offensive failure. Donald's 14 stops is tied for 5th among DT/NTs, and 3rd best on a per snap basis (behind a couple of run stuffing guys).

Is there room for improvement in Donald's game? Certainly. Donald has had 132 pass rush snaps and 90 run D snaps, so it's a little surprising that his PFF run D score is better than his pass rush score. Coming into the season, my belief was that Donald would have had more impact with his pass rush skills. But the fact that Donald is already having an impact with his run D is a testament to how high of a quality player Donald is.

A note for the DROY race, Donald is neck and neck on PFF grades with Khalil Mack and his 20 stops. But Mack has 170 more snaps that Donald. So if Donald keeps up his current pace (and increased snaps per game), it stands to reason that he should shoot past Mack. No other rookie is even close at the moment.

DPOY, by contrast, already seems like a runaway win for JJ Watt, whose +37.7 beats any player at any position by a wide margin. 2nd best (any position) is Von Miller at +23.7.

Back to Donald, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. We're only talking about PFF stats, and only after 6 games for a rookie, so we shouldn't be calling the engravers in Canton just yet. But love 'em or hate 'em, PFF stats have a remarkable ability to catch people's attention. If people were not aware of Donald before, you can be pretty sure they are noticing if him now.
 

bluecoconuts

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Best in the game? No way, not at this point. Very good? Yes.

However I'd still be shocked if he got a pro bowl nod or DROY. Not that he doesn't deserve them, because he does, but because he's not popular enough or the "sexy" choice.
 
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I don't like PFF stats, don't trust them, don't believe their acumen, believe they are fundamentally flawed. :fighting:
 

Jumava1968

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I don't think he's the best DT in the league yet, but I do think that by the end of the year and into next year he will be considered among the best.
 

mr.stlouis

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He really is play great like I thought he would. I actually thought it would happen sooner.

Yeah, I'm curious on GRob, too.
 

rdlkgliders

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Donald is playing very well and as the PFF rating shows he is playing well against the run. He seems to be adjusting to the NFL also. Early on his speed equaled some over pursuing and took him out of plays and he would get stuck on OLinemens blocks but he seems to be working around that. He is disengaging and showing some patience and ability to adjust and read quickly. Mack, Dix, Mosely and Barr are playing well also. I haven't seen a ton of Fuller but liked what I saw.
Nice job Donald keep it up.
 

Sleepy1711

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I could swear that kid lives in the back field...Imagine if we had Long back because every time Donald broke through, the qb rolled to the left. Could be disastrous for a lot of QBs.
 

drasconis

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He is progressing very, very, very well and looks to bea top one in the next couple of years. I am glad he is turning out to be a full time guy (Was worried that he would be a specialist). I think he has a good shot at DROY - Clowney is out and Fuller just went down (not cheering that just saying the top competition can't win if they do not play).
 

Username

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Idk about best overall, but he's pretty fucking good already. Top 5 now, maybe top 3 by years end, and I'm being 100% serious.
 

Philly5

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Too small of a sample size. Couldn't ask for better performance from a rookie. Even without considering the salary impact, I would take his game over pass rush only Suh.
 

theramsruleUK

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I'm re watching the Seahawks game, and this is no exaggeration... At least 80% of plays he is dominating the opposite guard. This guy will be something special.
His first step is unbelievable.
The only weakness I can see is if he doesn't beat his man with speed and technique, if the guard sets his feet, Donald has trouble pushing them back. But with a first step that quick, that'll be rare
 

DR RAM

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I think he's a very good ascending player. He will get better too.
 

LazyWinker

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He's in the backfield so often they charge him rent.

That's a little humor they don't actually charge him rent.
 

BonifayRam

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No but AD will be one big headache for the NFL to deal with for many yrs. (y)

I am so glad that Snead & Fisher went for the BPA in the selection of AD over what I wanted which was another OL'er. Having the 23 yr old AD line up next to the 24 yr old Robert Quinn on that right side most of the time is a serious amount of quickness & speed for most OLT's & OLG's to handle. As this season continues & Chris Long returns the Rams will be in an excellent position to get this DL in super catchup speed in sacks hurries hits & disruptions.

Has anyone notice the drop off of William Hayes performance from that LDE post from what it was this time last season??? One would guess that Hayes multiple off seasons surgeries have diminished his ability @ this time to make as many plays as in the past. One DL'er who has been playing excellent is Eugene Sims!

AD did send Kendall Langford to the bench but Kendall can play the Brockers position much better than Jermelle Cudjo (who is out of the NFL )& Matt Conrath (Rams PS) did last season. This will improve this Ram DL in helping Brockers getting relief who is just now getting healthy from that ankle injury earlier this season.

You need to add in Rookie DL UDFA Ethan Westbrook (who was injured in the 9er game & inactive this past Sunday) with AD & things around the DL should start to get exciting from this point out. With Westbrooks gimpy Carrington finally got his first tackle last week. AD has outplayed by a wide margin the highly sought after UFA veteran DT Alex Carrington who has been a very big sad disappointment.
 

Merlin

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If Donald keeps playing like he has been, he has a chance at the pro bowl. Guys who present a significant matchup problem sometimes receive that level of recognition right away. He is playing at the type of level necessary for that to happen.

As to him being the best, he is definitely in the conversation. How cool is that? Looks to me right now that Snead may have found two pro bowl talents in the first round just like he wanted to.