And how many coaches in the game today have won or been to a Superbowl as a head coach? Ditching a coach after he is charged with completely changing the direction, methodology, and culture of a franchise. How has that worked out in most cases?
Most coaches are brought in to change the culture and turn around an organization, I haven't run the #'s but I would guess that 90% are supposed change the direction, methodology, culture of a franchise. The few examples are winning teams that bring in coaches (Martz->vermeil, Switzer->JJ for example). Agreed it normally doesn't work out, but you don't want to sit at average (or in our case below average) either, the goal is to win it all - or at least be in the running for the SB. The first step is to make the playoffs (something we haven't been able to reach), the next is to go deep in, and then the question is can you stay up there in relevance. Right now JF hasn't reached the first tier in four years. We can't even talk about the second or third tier yet (for example Lewis in CIN is in that second tier - having good regular seasons, makes playoffs, but can't get past 1st round....he may lose job over it, others have).
Sorry but Fisher IMO was not brought in to simply draft and sign his guys. He was brought in to orchestrate a new long term approach that brings about sustainability. Yeah other coaches have gotten their teams to playoffs and even Superbowls quicker but how is that working out in SF? Does it look like Seattle is maintaining that?
What is long term? What is the plan? I sure don't see it. It seems to be build a great D and hope the O is good enough. How long is this plan supposed to take? I have said it before you needed the playoffs this year so that sustainability could be tested in year 5. So if you keep him on for year 5 and he makes the playoffs - presumably you give him an extension....but what do you do if he drops back to 8-8 in year 6, eat the contract, give him a 7th year. What if he makes playoffs in year 7 again but both times were 1 and done...keep going?
The NFL makes it tough to sustain that high level, and the only teams that seem to do it have HoF QB to lead them each year. Most teams know that time on top is limited, and often they sell there future for 1 or 2 more years of having a shot. It is great to think there is some plan to make us relevant to that conversation every year, but short of finding a HoF QB suddenly that doesn't seem plausible, and right now the plan isn't even making us anymore than a yearly spoiler team for others.
What was Petey's last gig in the NFL like? The one before that? How did Bellyfat work out in Cleveland?
I think that you could find articles where both of them would say they learned lot from that first NFL HC job and applied it the next time around. The trouble here is JF has 20 years as an NFL HC, nothing we see on the field or in his public comments would lead anyone to believe that he will suddenly evolve or learn at this point. Linhan may be a much better HC given another shot (let me clear I am NOT advocating for this!!!) his second time around having learned lessons from the first time.
Bottom line is that inserting a new coach doesn't necessarily help much either. I'd like to try continuity for a change and see how that works out.
You are very right, a new head coach is a gamble, but right now I feel like the level of success is so low it is worth it. Hoping for 8 or 9 wins a season is too low of a bar to debate over, if you are struggling after this long with that, then I have to assume the next couple of steps are going to be even less likely...
I think for example CIN will have it much tougher if they lose in the first round again this year. Are you willing to gamble regular playoffs and really good regular season for a shot at a ring - are you willing to gamble you that you can do the Dungy-> Gruden jump, knowing you could end up with the Schotty to Turner change or worse.
