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19-Handicap (Unofficial ROD Straight Pick'em 2016)

Discussion in 'SPORTSBOOK' started by flv, Aug 7, 2016.

  1. flv

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    #1 flv, Aug 7, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2016
    I trialled this last year as 18-Handicap. I've adjusted it to 19-Handicap in 2016 as the 2015 version was too even from a favourite/underdog point of view. Picking favourites ought to be a slightly better strategy to picking underdogs.


    The game is 19-Handicap. Essentially it's a straight pick 'em where you just pick the team you think will each particular game. The twist is in the scoring. Each incorrect pick will score 0. Each correct pick will score 19 points + or - the handicap listed on ESPN's Pigskin Pick 'em game. All ½ points will be rounded down. Thus a winning 2½ point favourite would score 16 points whilst a winning 2½ point underdog would score 21 points. My main interest is how much the scoring system will influence decision-making.

    Thursday games will be excluded from official scoring, mostly because some people forget to make picks before Thursdays and then they don't want to play because they think they're miles behind everyone else. Unofficial Thursday picks will be available for those who wish to make them. (What I really want is the data for Thursday picks but not to lose people who miss them or don't want to pick Thursday games). All other games will count, (that includes Saturdays and the early Sunday starts in London).

    There is a maximum handicap limit of 14½ points. Handicaps outside this limit will be treated as 14½ points so there will be a minimum of 4 points and a maximum of 33 points available for each winning pick. Half points will be awarded for tied games.

    ESPN post their handicaps at 8PM EST. I'll post a list each Tuesday or Wednesday of what the handicaps are and thus what the potential winning points for each team will be. Selections will need to be made by pm, (or post them in this thread if you don't mind others seeing your picks), and be before each game starts. Ideally i'd like all picks to be in 1 hour before kickoff. At a push i'd accept later as a 1-off. If you do start with this game PLEASE see it through even if you don't think you're doing very well.
     
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  2. BriansRams

    Rams hit Superbowl 2018
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    OK, and how then do I participate? How do I document my picks?
     
  3. flv

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    I'll be posting the week's games and potential score values here. If people don't mind showing their picks they can post them in this thread. Alternatively they can PM them to me, (in an encrypted .zip format if they're concerned about me seeing them beforehand). I will also set up a Pick'em at ESPN as a straight Pick'em. Obviously that won't show handicap and thus the potential score values but it would allow members to keeps picks secret until kickoff. This would be the preferred option for people who like to change their picks several times. Unfortunately I can't run this on the ROD Pick'em. Only ROD Admin can run additional Pick'ems and this style of Pick'em would create additional work that staff here can do without.
     
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  4. flv

    flv
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    This is just a trial run for those who might be unsure how the game works. It doesn't count towards the proper game.

    Preseason week 4 handicaps:
    Redskins @ Buccaneers -2.5
    Jets @ Eagles -3.5
    Jaguars @ Falcons -3.5
    Titans @ Dolphins -2.5
    Patriots @ Giants -2.5
    Bills @ Lions -3.5
    Colts @ Bengals -3.5
    Steelers @ Panthers -3.5
    Packers @ Chiefs -3.5
    Ravens @ Saints -5.5
    Texans @ Cowboys 3.5
    Bears @ Browns -5.5
    Rams @ Vikings -1.5
    Broncos @ Cardinals -3.5
    49ers @ Chargers -1.5
    Seahawks @ Raiders -1.5

    Your points value choices:
    Redskins 21 or Buccaneers 16
    Jets 22 or Eagles 15
    Jaguars 22 or Falcons 15
    Titans 21 or Dolphins 16
    Patriots 21 or Giants 16
    Bills 22 or Lions 15
    Colts 22 or Bengals 15
    Steelers 22 or Panthers 15
    Packers 22 or Chiefs 15
    Ravens 24 or Saints 13
    Texans 15 or Cowboys 22
    Bears 24 or Browns 13
    Rams 20 or Vikings 17
    Broncos 22 or Cardinals 15
    49ers 20 or Chargers 17
    Seahawks 20 or Raiders 17

    The Redskins @ Buccaneers game is an early game this week. I'll happily accept picks but for scoring purposes I won't include that game in the results. (This will also apply to regular season Thursday games). Picks can be made openly in this thread, they can be sent to me by PM or they can be posted in a zip file which you can be password protected if you wish as long as you post the password at a later date. During the regular season members will also be able to post their picks at ESPN in this Pick'em:

    games.espn.com/nfl-pigskin-pickem/2016/en/group?groupID=105331

    The ESPN sign-up password is: ROD19
    Obviously you would need an ESPN account. Picks made at ESPN are only visible to others after kick-off. ESPN now allows participants to pick future weeks so you can pick any/all weeks at any time. They also have a basic auto-pick feature. This is handy for those who might otherwise forget to make picks.

    I will also accept a basic auto-pick here. You can pick: every home team, every road team, every favourite, or every under-dog as a default. Obviously making any picks will over-ride the default auto-pick selections. As a rule making a pick at ESPN will over-ride any pick made here unless i'm specifically told otherwise, in advance of games taking place.
     
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  5. SierraRam

    Recreational User
    2016 Pick'em Champion
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    Wow! That's a cool pool, but are you going to have to quit your job to administer it? ;)

    Seriously, it seems like a lot of work, but also a lot of fun! I'm in - let me know if I can help
     
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  6. Dodgersrf

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    I'm in
    Thanks @flv
     
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  7. flv

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    Thanks. I hope everyone plays and I hope they have a great time. I've been working on this for a long time and I think I have everything down to a fine art. Everything is on Microsoft Excel and managing it should be a breeze. The only thing that really slows me down is people posting picks in a different order to the way i'm posting them on the screen. If people post in the correct order I can immediately see whether they have mostly home team, road team, favourites, or underdogs. I can copy/paste selections en masse and change the 3-7 incorrect selections within a few seconds.

    Everyone is welcome to look through last year's 18-Handicap thread to see how things look and work. A good example of a scoring sheet, (for those who who have an Excel or equivalent program along with WinRAR, Winzip, or 7-zip, can be found in this post:

    ramsondemand.com/threads/18-handicap-straight-pickem.41458/page-4#post-682007

    I have all of this year's 17 weeks ready to go. All I need to know is who is playing so I can copy/paste the appropriate names and scoring columns onto each sheet. Then all I need are ESPNs handicaps, (which traditionally they've posted at 3PM EST on Tuesdays). Obviously I can give people a pretty good estimate of what the scoring values will be...and not including Thursday games takes a lot of the time pressure off. Here is the preliminary scoring sheet for Week 1. Obviously I don't have names or handicaps yet:
     

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  8. flv

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    Just a reminder that i'd like to make this a ROD$2000 entry event. I am putting up ROD$5000 of my own as a prize. Additionally I will be adding ROD$500 to the prize fund for each of the 1st 50 members that sign up. All the $ROD will go into the prize fund so if 20 members sign up there will be my $5000, plus 20 X $2000 entry fees, plus 20 X $500 bonuses from me. That would be a prize fund of $55,000.

    Prize money will be split as follows:
    The 17 weekly winners will each get 4% of the prize fund. Obviously if 3 people all got the same high score in 1 week then that week's 4% prize would be divided 3 ways.
    3rd place overall for the cumulative 17 weeks total will get 4%
    2nd place overall for the cumulative 17 weeks total will get 10%
    1st place overall for the cumulative 17 weeks total will get 18%
    Obviously most of the money is going into the weekly prizes. This is important to me because I want people to have a reason to keep playing even if they fall behind and don't think they can win overall.

    The ROD$2000 sign-up entry is here:

    ramsondemand.com/sportsbook/19-handicap-unofficial-rod-straight-pickem-2016-2000-entry.1176/

    If members are unhappy with the pay-per-play aspect I am open to altering this aspect of the game. I am prepared to loan members the $ROD if they have wagered it in the Sportsbook or they are long-term members of ROD who haven't been active for a while. I'm also prepared to let people play without the entry fee and not have them involved in winning the $ROD prizes. To me it's just something to enhance the game. I believe members who have put something at stake, (even something as trivial as $ROD), will have more incentive to see it through. Last year the top 40 competitors in the official ROD Pick'em combined to miss 9 complete weeks out of the 40 X 17 weeks total, (mostly weeks 16 & 17). Additionally there were 35 other Thursday picks missed. The total was 175 missed picks.

    My interest is this: I think this is a better variant of Pick'em than the traditional straight & spread varieties. If i'm wrong then so be it. However, if I am right and people find this more entertaining than those types of Pick'em i'd like to approach ESPN with a view to them offering this as an alternative Pick'em to all football fans. I'm not looking to sell the idea or make money. I just want football fans to have the most fun possible.
     
  9. RhodyRams

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    will you be posting the games in a thread like you did last year?

    That was easy for me to do my entries..could just PM them to you every week in the order you like
     
  10. flv

    flv
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    I will be posting each week's games with their ESPN handicaps in this thread in exactly the same way as I did last year in the 18-Handicap thread. ESPN might have Week 1 handicap values up already but I will wait until 3 PM EST on Tuesdays and go with what is up at that time. Bolding, colouring, or just picking 1 team from each game in the order given makes things very easy for me. PMs are fine. Making the picks on the ESPN Pigskin Pick game is also fine. (Obviously anyone choosing to do that should let me know which ESPN account name is theirs. I can't tell who ESPNuser15782167 might be). I will also be posting the week's Excel sheet in a .zip file so members can play around with what might happen and what sort of score they might get.

    I will also be posting the weekly scores and the cumulative leaderboard in this thread after the Monday Night games. Just for fun I will also post the scores for basic auto-pick systems, (every favourite, every home team, etc), as a benchmark for what is happening in the league. Since they are opposites half of them must score below 50%. It's always reassuring to see some other low scores on the odd occasion when you haven't had a good week. Obviously they won't count towards the competition proper.
     
  11. flv

    flv
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    Week 1 ESPN handicaps:
    Panthers @ Broncos 2.5
    Buccaneers @ Falcons -3.5
    Bills @ Ravens -3.5
    Bears @ Texans -4.5
    Bengals @ Jets 1.5
    Browns @ Eagles -6.5
    Packers @ Jaguars 4.5
    Vikings @ Titans 2.5
    Chargers @ Chiefs -7.5
    Raiders @ Saints -1.5
    Dolphins @ Seahawks -9.5
    Giants @ Cowboys -3.5
    Lions @ Colts -5.5
    Patriots @ Cardinals -5.5
    Steelers @ Redskins 3.5
    Rams @ 49ers 2.5

    Your points value choices:
    Panthers 16 or Broncos 21
    Buccaneers 22 or Falcons 15
    Bills 22 or Ravens 15
    Bears 23 or Texans 14
    Bengals 17 or Jets 20
    Browns 25 or Eagles 12
    Packers 14 or Jaguars 23
    Vikings 16 or Titans 21
    Chargers 26 or Chiefs 11
    Raiders 20 or Saints 17
    Dolphins 28 or Seahawks 9
    Giants 22 or Cowboys 15
    Lions 24 or Colts 13
    Patriots 24 or Cardinals 13
    Steelers 15 or Redskins 22
    Rams 16 or 49ers 21

    ...and we're off!

    These are the Week 1 Handicaps as posted by ESPN. I'm not saying they're right or that I agree with them. I think they were put up before the Cowboys lost Romo to injury and ESPN don't look as though they're going to change them.

    Just a basic reminder of the rules:
    The objective is to pick the winner of each game. Teams just have to win. They DON'T have to cover the spread. If they win you get the points as listed above, (which is based on the spread). Thursday games won't count towards the game so you won't get points for Thursday games. (This also applies to Thanksgiving). I'm posting Thursday games for public interest. If you'd like to post your pick for Thursday games it would be useful to me from a data analysis point of view. I'm ok with people changing their picks but please keep in mind I have to manually update Excel sheets. If you do change picks 20 times a week it would be better for me if you use the ESPN board. I have included a Week 1 Excel sheet in the zip for anyone who wants to play around with what might happen and to see what they might score. Good luck to all...and don't forget to sign up with your ROD$2000 entry if you want the opportunity to take all my $ROD. (y)
     

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  12. cvramsfan

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    Picks are in at ESPN but couldn't see how to join here to pay the fee. I am on my iPhone

    Never mind I got it.
     
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  13. Dagonet

    Grillin and Chillin
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    #13 Dagonet, Sep 8, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2016
    I'm very late to the game and my apologies. I'll take Carolina for tonight if that's feasible?

    Edit.. Nevermind.. I got it.. Thanks FLV
     
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  14. flv

    flv
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    I have posted my picks at ESPN but to show good faith I will post them here in advance of Sunday's games in this spoiler. There's no need to look before Tuesday! ;)

    flv score
    Panthers 16
    Falcons 15
    Ravens 15
    Texans 14
    Jets 20
    Eagles 12
    Packers 14
    Vikings 16
    Chiefs 11
    Saints 17
    Seahawks 9
    Giants 22
    Colts 13
    Cardinals 13
    Steelers 15
    Rams 16
     
  15. LACHAMP46

    A snazzy title
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    Week 1 ESPN handicaps:
    Panthers @ Broncos 2.5 (I wanted Panthers...oh well)
    Buccaneers @ Falcons -3.5 (Falcons)
    Bills @ Ravens -3.5 (Bills)
    Bears @ Texans -4.5 (Texans)
    Bengals @ Jets 1.5 (Jets)
    Browns @ Eagles -6.5 (Browns)
    Packers @ Jaguars 4.5 (Jags)
    Vikings @ Titans 2.5 (Titans)
    Chargers @ Chiefs -7.5 (Chargers)
    Raiders @ Saints -1.5 (Raiders)
    Dolphins @ Seahawks -9.5 (Dolphins)
    Giants @ Cowboys -3.5 (Giants)
    Lions @ Colts -5.5 (Colts)
    Patriots @ Cardinals -5.5 (Cards)
    Steelers @ Redskins 3.5 (Steelers)
    Rams @ 49ers 2.5 (Rams)
    @flv How's that?
     
  16. flv

    flv
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    @LACHAMP46, that's fine. The order is the most important thing for me. It would further help me cut the time down the copying time from about 90 seconds to 30 seconds if you coloured or bolded part of the list. It just helps me to see whether teams are home or road teams. Example:

    Panthers 16 or Broncos 21
    Buccaneers 22 or Falcons 15
    Bills 22 or Ravens 15
    Bears 23 or Texans 14
    Bengals 17 or Jets 20
    Browns 25 or Eagles 12
    Packers 14 or Jaguars 23
    Vikings 16 or Titans 21
    Chargers 26 or Chiefs 11
    Raiders 20 or Saints 17
    Dolphins 28 or Seahawks 9
    Giants 22 or Cowboys 15
    Lions 24 or Colts 13
    Patriots 24 or Cardinals 13
    Steelers 15 or Redskins 22
    Rams 16 or 49ers 21

    Alternatively, (and slightly better)...
    All ROAD teams except:

    Panthers @ Broncos 2.5
    Buccaneers @ Falcons -3.5
    Bills @ Ravens -3.5
    Bears @ Texans -4.5
    Bengals @ Jets 1.5
    Browns @ Eagles -6.5
    Packers @ Jaguars 4.5
    Vikings @ Titans 2.5
    Chargers @ Chiefs -7.5
    Raiders @ Saints -1.5
    Dolphins @ Seahawks -9.5
    Giants @ Cowboys -3.5
    Lions @ Colts -5.5
    Patriots @ Cardinals -5.5
    Steelers @ Redskins 3.5
    Rams @ 49ers 2.5

    This is equally good for me if the B I U 'teardrop' T A icons list in the 'Reply' box isn't available to you or you're on a mobile that shows coloured text as black:

    ALL HOME EXCEPT XXXXX
    P
    anthers 16 or Broncos 21 XXXXX
    Buccaneers 22 or Falcons 15
    Bills 22 or Ravens 15 XXXXX
    Bears 23 or Texans 14
    Bengals 17 or Jets 20 XXXXX
    Browns 25 or Eagles 12
    Packers 14 or Jaguars 23
    Vikings 16 or Titans 21
    Chargers 26 or Chiefs 11 XXXXX
    Raiders 20 or Saints 17 XXXXX
    Dolphins 28 or Seahawks 9
    Giants 22 or Cowboys 15 XXXXX
    Lions 24 or Colts 13
    Patriots 24 or Cardinals 13 XXXXX
    Steelers 15 or Redskins 22
    Rams 16 or 49ers 21 XXXXX

    Even this:
    All home except:
    Falcons
    Ravens
    Jaguars
    Saints
    Seahawks
    Redskins

    I can then copy/paste a whole home or road list and easily spot which changes need to be made. Posting in the correct order and identifying changes from a home or road list is what speeds things up for me.

    ...but how you did it is still fine. (y)
     
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  17. LACHAMP46

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    @flv

    which is best for you? I aims to please....bolded, colored, or saying all home except____, ____, ____
     
  18. flv

    flv
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    Honestly, any of it is fine. 30 seconds here or 60 seconds there isn't a big deal, even if it's multiplied over 40 people 17 times a year. Of choice i'd prefer:

    Alternatively, (and slightly better)...
    All ROAD teams except coloured:

    Panthers @ Broncos 2.5
    Buccaneers @ Falcons -3.5
    Bills @ Ravens -3.5
    Bears @ Texans -4.5
    Bengals @ Jets 1.5
    Browns @ Eagles -6.5
    Packers @ Jaguars 4.5
    Vikings @ Titans 2.5
    Chargers @ Chiefs -7.5
    Raiders @ Saints -1.5
    Dolphins @ Seahawks -9.5
    Giants @ Cowboys -3.5
    Lions @ Colts -5.5
    Patriots @ Cardinals -5.5
    Steelers @ Redskins 3.5
    Rams @ 49ers 2.5

    or this as a 2nd choice:

    All home except:
    Panthers
    Packers
    Vikings
    Raiders
    Lions
    Giants

    Whichever is least awkward for members is fine. Obviously I don't want people to make mistakes and miss a team so making a clear selection in every game like this:

    Panthers 16 or Broncos 21
    Buccaneers 22 or Falcons 15
    Bills 22 or Ravens 15
    Bears 23 or Texans 14
    Bengals 17 or Jets 20
    Browns 25 or Eagles 12
    Packers 14 or Jaguars 23
    Vikings 16 or Titans 21
    Chargers 26 or Chiefs 11
    Raiders 20 or Saints 17
    Dolphins 28 or Seahawks 9
    Giants 22 or Cowboys 15
    Lions 24 or Colts 13
    Patriots 24 or Cardinals 13
    Steelers 15 or Redskins 22
    Rams 16 or 49ers 21

    ...doesn't add or subtract any time to me. It just takes longer for people to identify their selections. If members are happier doing that then do that. Posting 16 teams in a list without an immediate visual cue as to home/road designation means I copy paste 16 individual items on an Excel sheet and check 16 items rather than copy paste 1 whole block then 4-5 block corrections and checking maybe 6-7 items. In the last, purple example above i'd copy/paste the entire home team list then change Panthers and Buccaneers as 1 block together, then Browns as 1 item, Giants as 1 item, then Patriots and Steelers together as 1 block. 1 list, 4 changes. 6 road team items to colour check. Easy-peasy. :D
     
  19. LACHAMP46

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  20. flv

    flv
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    Just a heads-up to let everyone know that a friend of mine from another board is playing along on the ESPN board. His name is TonOdanK. He's not a member of ROD, yet, (with his being a Saints fan), but i've known him for 6 years and he was very keen to play along. Last year he finished 2nd in the NFLFF straight Pick'em. His record was 164-89 with 3 missed picks. Obviously he can't win a ROD title or the $ROD prizes, (unless he chooses to join), but unofficially expect him to be taking names and kicking asses.