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18-Handicap...(Straight Pick'em)

Discussion in 'SPORTSBOOK' started by flv, Nov 17, 2015.

  1. flv

    flv
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    I toyed with the idea of renaming this "We love under-18"...but that's just playing with fire.

    The game is 18-Handicap. Essentially it's a straight pick 'em where you just pick the team you think will each particular game. The twist is in the scoring. Each incorrect pick will score 0. Each correct pick will score 18 points + or - the handicap listed on ESPN's Pigskin Pick 'em game. All ½ points will be rounded down. Thus a winning 2½ point favourite would score 15 points whilst a winning 2½ point underdog would score 20 points. My main interest is how much the scoring system will influence decision-making.

    Thursday games will be excluded, mostly because people forget to make picks before Thursdays and then they don't want to play because they think they're miles behind everyone else. Games where the handicap is more than 15 points will also be excluded since there is little or no point in picking the favoured team.

    I'll post a list each Tuesday or Wednesday of what the handicaps are and thus what the potential winning points for each team will be. Selections will need to be made by pm, (or post them in this thread if you don't mind others seeing your picks), and be before each game starts. At a push i'd accept 2 or 3 minutes into a scoreless game. No changing your picks! Please post in this thread if you're up for the challenge. I know there aren't many people interested in starting a pick 'em this late in the season. If you do start with this game PLEASE see it through even if you don't think you're doing very well.

    This game originally had a slightly different scoring system and was run as a trial in Week 10. If you want to see what happened the thread and results are here:

    Pick'em Week 10 trial
     
  2. flv

    flv
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    #2 flv, Nov 17, 2015
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2015
    Week 11 ESPN handicaps:
    Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons -6.5
    Denver Broncos @ Chicago Bears -1.5
    Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins +0.5
    Oakland Raiders @ Detroit Lions +1.5
    St. Louis Rams @ Baltimore Ravens -1.5
    New York Jets @ Houston Texans +2.5
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles -5.5
    Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers -7.5
    Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers +2.5
    Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings -0.5
    San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks -12.5
    Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals -3.5
    Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots -7.5

    Your points value Choices:
    Indianapolis Colts 24 or Atlanta Falcons 11
    Denver Broncos 19 or Chicago Bears 16
    Dallas Cowboys 17 or Miami Dolphins 18
    Oakland Raiders 16 or Detroit Lions 19
    St. Louis Rams 19 or Baltimore Ravens 16
    New York Jets 15 or Houston Texans 20
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 or Philadelphia Eagles 12
    Washington Redskins 25 or Carolina Panthers 10
    Kansas City Chiefs 15 or San Diego Chargers 20
    Green Bay Packers 18 or Minnesota Vikings 17
    San Francisco 49ers 30 or Seattle Seahawks 5
    Cincinnati Bengals 21 or Arizona Cardinals 14
    Buffalo Bills 25 or New England Patriots 10

    Good luck to all participants.
     
  3. ohiorams

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    subject to change:

    Jaguars
    Colts
    Broncos
    Cowboys
    Lions
    Rams
    Texans
    Bucs
    Panthers
    Chargers
    Vikings
    Seahawks
    Cardinals
    Patriots
     
  4. ohiorams

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    changing my pick from Rams to Ravens instead
     
  5. RhodyRams

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    why do I have the feeling we are becoming the subjects of some wild psychology project LOL
     
  6. flv

    flv
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    ...because YOU are the lab rats and I am the mad pick'em scientist. Ha!

    Doh! You got me.

    Since this has come up for a 3rd time i'll answer it. The pick'em is essentially a moneyline exercise. The points value for each pick broadly follow the returns on moneylines. I'm interested whether people's picks mirror the favourite/underdog ratios listed for actual money wagered. I'm also interested if there are trends, EG: people picking favourites until the favourite reaches 12 points. If so where is that cross-over point. Maybe people go the other way and always pick underdogs. There is generally an inbuilt value edge towards favourites. However, with handicaps below 3 points there's a slight value edge in picking underdogs. 'Max' picks every favourite with handicaps above 3 and every underdog with handicaps below 3. I was interested if people would pick the same way or not. Either way there's no commercial, exploitative, or sinister element to this game. My 1st ever job included compiling stats on betting trends. It is an interest that has always stayed with me.

    1st and foremost it's a game and it's meant to be fun. It has the potential to be a more interesting competitor to the normal straight pick'em because potentially 1-sided games are back in play with the scoring system. If this popular i'll press the admins to adopt it for next year.
     
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  7. RhodyRams

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    nothing of what you said makes a damn lick of sense to me, but I'll do my best to throw off off your system !!!
     
  8. ohiorams

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    subject to change: ok, altering again. Should probably be last time lol. Still thinking about Lions lol

    Jaguars
    Colts
    Broncos
    Cowboys
    Lions
    Ravens
    Texans
    Bucs
    Panthers
    Chargers
    Vikings
    49ers
    Cardinals

    Patriots

    I'm picking Niners straight up because the 13 point spread is bull. Bookies dont tell you what they think will happen,they tell you what they think the public believes will happen.
    the Seahawks are all banged up and I expect Lynch to leave game injured at some point and maybe one other player. Theyve lost twice at home. The homefield noise advantage is a dying myth.Division rivals tend to split and Niners lost a measley 20-3 last time with Kaepernick. The new QB I simply expect to do better as he has shown.
     
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  9. RhodyRams

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    I will get my picks in before Sundays games
     
  10. flv

    flv
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    Just a reminder - this is straight up, not against the spread. If the 49ers beat the spread but still lose you get 0 points. The risk is 30 points vs 5 points. If the 49ers win more than 1 time in 7 you are making a sound choice. If the 49ers win less than 1 time in 7 you are making an unsound choice. Then again, there are worse thing than backing a hunch. :)
     
  11. ohiorams

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    I understand its all straight up. I was just being descriptive and redundant since you said why you were doing this,I'm telling you why i picked an supposed underdog
     
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  12. RhodyRams

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    Your points value Choices:
    Indianapolis Colts 24 or Atlanta Falcons 11
    Denver Broncos 19 or Chicago Bears 16
    Dallas Cowboys 17 or Miami Dolphins 18
    Oakland Raiders 16 or Detroit Lions 19
    St. Louis Rams 19 or Baltimore Ravens 16
    New York Jets 15 or Houston Texans 20
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 or Philadelphia Eagles 12
    Washington Redskins 25 or Carolina Panthers 10
    Kansas City Chiefs 15 or San Diego Chargers 20
    Green Bay Packers 18 or Minnesota Vikings 17
    San Francisco 49ers 30 or Seattle Seahawks 5
    Cincinnati Bengals 21 or Arizona Cardinals 14
    Buffalo Bills 25 or New England Patriots 10
     
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  13. flv

    flv
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    Week 11 update after 11 of 13 games, (before Sunday Night game):
    The best possible score was 186 points.
    @ohiorams scored 148 points.
    @RhodyRams scored 125 points.

    Benchmark scores, (purely for interest):

    Hobart, (every home team) 70 points.
    Roland, (every road team) 116 points.
    Fanny, (every favourite) 63 points.
    Undra, (every underdog) 123 points.
    Max, (maximum system theory) 91 points.
    Minnie, (minimum system theory) 95 points.

    Congratulations to the Hew-marns!
     
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  14. RhodyRams

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    I kind of like this thing...even tho I am in 2nd place out of 2 players...not counting the fictional players of course
     
  15. ohiorams

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    clean sweep in the morning games. I thought SF would do what Denver did lol

    Still Got Cards coming up
     
  16. ohiorams

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    162 :santa:
     
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  17. ohiorams

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    Detroit
    Dallas
    Chicago
     
  18. flv

    flv
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    Week 11 concluded after all 13 games:
    The best possible score was 210 points.
    @ohiorams scored 172 points.
    @RhodyRams scored 135 points.

    Benchmark scores, (purely for interest):

    Hobart, (every home team) 94 points.
    Roland, (every road team) 116 points.
    Fanny, (every favourite) 87 points.
    Undra, (every underdog) 123 points.
    Max, (maximum system theory) 115 points.
    Minnie, (minimum system theory) 95 points.
     
  19. ohiorams

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    Lions
    Cowboys
    Bears

    Vikings
    Bills
    Bengals
    Raiders
    Colts
    Dolphins
    Saints
    Giants
    Jaguars
    cardinal
    Steelers
    Broncos
    Ravens
     
  20. flv

    flv
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    Week 12 ESPN handicaps:
    Vikings @ Falcons -1.5
    Bills @ Chiefs -5.5
    Rams @ Bengals -8.5
    Raiders @ Titans +1.5
    Buccaneers @ Colts -3.5
    Dolphins @ Jets -3.5
    Saints @ Texans -2.5
    Giants @ Redskins +2.5
    Chargers @ Jaguars -4.5
    Cardinals @ 49ers +10.5
    Steelers @ Seahawks -4.5
    Patriots @ Broncos +3.5
    Ravens @ Browns -2.5


    Your points value Choices:
    Vikings 19 or Falcons 16
    Bills 23 or Chiefs 12
    Rams 26 or Bengals 9
    Raiders 16 or Titans 19
    Buccaneers 21 or Colts 14
    Dolphins 21 or Jets 14
    Saints 20 or Texans 15
    Giants 15 or Redskins 20
    Chargers 22 or Jaguars 13
    Cardinals 7 or 49ers 28
    Steelers 22 or Seahawks 13
    Patriots 14 or Broncos 21
    Ravens 20 or Browns 15

    Good luck to all participants. (This looks like a tough week to me).